infrastructure and services for support, overlaid with satellite imagery and other sources of visual imaging (http://haiti.openstreetmap.nl/). No such speedy detection of the human toll of the earthquake was possible. Estimates of the numbers of impacted people trickled in slowly. Across large geographic scales, only censuses provide detailed, geo-referenced data that can be layered onto maps displaying geography and the built environment, yet they do not provide pre- and post-crisis information and may be undertaken years after the hazard. Morbidity and mortality data are also extremely difficult to collect, particularly in crisis situations. The 2010 World Development Report raises a key issue in local adaptation planning (World Bank, 2010, p. 89): A compounding set of uncertainties—about demographics, technology, markets, and climate—requires policies and investment decisions to be based on imperfect and incomplete knowledge. Local and national decision makers face even greater uncertainties because projections tend to lose precision at finer scales—an inherent problem of downscaling from coarse, aggregate models. If decision parameters cannot be observed and measured, robust strategies . . . that directly address the reality of a world of shifting baselines and intermittent disturbances are the appropriate framework in a context of unknown probabilities. This highlights the need for spatially targeted population projections at far smaller scales than national level – for instance, for cities. A number of approaches are being developed for these types of projections. The Report also stresses the importance of small scale enumerations for locally-driven data collection and analysis of the type described above. Climate change will not occur in a vacuum, but will take place alongside a range of other social, economic and demographic shifts. Improved knowledge about any of these will help to guide decision-making, particularly as there are significant levels of uncertainty around predictions of future climates at the regional and local scale.
Conclusion This chapter has suggested that current approaches to understanding climate change vulnerability, while valuable, have masked important gaps in the understanding and practice of adaptation. These limitations include superficial assessments of who is vulnerable and why, a focus on the physical environment over the social one as well as a lack of connection between the two and a static perception of vulnerability over time. Population dynamics, and their strong links to issues of development, can help to fill these gaps through better assessment of vulnerability, better targeting of adaptation practices to the actual causes of vulnerability and better monitoring and evaluation of adaptation programming. By delving into the concept of vulnerability, and particularly by focusing on exposure and adaptive capacity, this chapter has shown that the extent of vulnerability depends significantly on key population dynamics, including urbanization and mobility. It has also shown that knowing why people are vulnerable depends on understanding the links between population dynamics, demographic characteristics, Po pul at i ng Adap tat i o n I nco rp o rat i ng P o p ul at i o n Dy nam i c s i n C li m at e Ch ange Adap tat i o n P o li c y an d P ract i c e
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