The link between migration decisions and climate impacts also goes through human capital formation, particularly knowledge of current changes in climate, expectations of future trends and the potential impacts of these on livelihoods and economic opportunity. Networks that cross rural-urban divides have more access to information and more diversified income sources, creating a foundation for short- and long-term rural-urban migration. In settings, therefore, where rural-urban migration, both short and long term, is prevalent, and where rural-urban linkages are strong, people may have greater adaptive capacity. Wide and geographically diverse social networks are thus at the core of migration as adaptation. The importance of social networks may be overstated for other types of vulnerability, which can be demonstrated by careful analysis of variations across populations. A common claim is that the elderly are more vulnerable due to lack of social ties. Studies of heat waves have pointed to old age, prior morbidity and social isolation as key causes of mortality (e.g., Semenza et al., 1996; Fouillet et al., 2006), which have been used to support the social network link between elderly populations and vulnerability. Yet Browning et al. (2006) examined the distribution of deaths in the 1995 Chicago heat wave and found that African-Americans and Latinos had similarly sized social networks, but much different mortality rates. What appeared to be isolation from lack of social networks was better explained by neighbourhood factors, including safety concerns and poor infrastructure, which kept people from leaving their homes. Kovats and Hajat (2008) add culture as a covariate of subpopulation vulnerability. The importance of the links between population and development for adaptive capacity are underscored in assessing vulnerability across two frequently discussed populations: women and children. Women as a group are often considered highly vulnerable to climate change, yet Alber (2009, p. 149) points out that “if the underlying reasons for women’s (and men’s) specific vulnerabilities are not analysed and addressed properly, the results will be merely rhetorical”. Alber identifies gendered division of labour, income differences between men and women, power differences and cultural patterns and roles as key mechanisms. Access to reproductive health plays a central role in enhancing women’s empowerment and opportunities and to creating a foundation for community-based adaptation (UNFPA, 2009). Children and youthful populations will be disproportionately impacted by climate change, because of a range of social and biological developmental mechanisms (Bartlett, 2009). These include income differences and the prevalence of child poverty, as well as brain and physical developmental delays associated with, for instance, poor health and malnutrition, which stretch impacts for decades beyond isolated crises. Taken together, these mechanisms linking population, development and adaptive capacity go beyond the scope of impact-first programmes and, where they are included in impact-first programmes, would make the programmes themselves oriented towards broader development. They also underscore the importance of specifying and assessing mechanisms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity linking population and development in order to avoid missing the target in programming.
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The De mogra ph y of Ada ptation to C l imate Ch ange
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