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The Demography of Adaptation to Climate Change

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Figure 1.3: Resilience Framework

Redundancy

Flexibility

Resilience

Capacity to Reorganize

Capacity to Learn

Source: ACCCRN, 2009, p. 405.

These questions bridge the gap between hazards, adaptive capacity, development and population by again focusing the questions on “who?” and “why them?” Responding to these questions from the poverty and development perspective allows individuals and families with limited incomes or who rely on assets (including their homes and possessions) that are not climate proof to be identified. Of course, richer enterprises and households can frequently buy their way out of risk with better infrastructure or by moving to safer locations, whereas most low-income groups are tied to the location and dangerous sites for their livelihoods, homes, assets, social networks and culture. Yet all of these factors are also shaped by demographic characteristics, including age, gender, race and ethnicity, among others (Bartlett, 2008; Patt et al., 2009), and their links to health, resources and human and social capital. Mobile populations have more adaptive capacity, to the extent that mobility is a component of adaptation by way of reducing exposure, as argued above. Resources are central to mobility and mediate the relationship between race and ethnicity and adaptive capacity. For instance, in New Orleans, low-income African-American residents cited financial constraints as an impediment to evacuation prior to Hurricane Katrina, a situation exacerbated by a lack of cash for petrol and other incidentals caused by the hurricane striking at the end of the month, shortly before payday (Elder et al., 2007). Strong social networks are also necessary for particular types of mobility (Boyd, 1989; Massey, 1990). “The effective units of migration were (and are) neither individuals nor households but sets of people linked by acquaintance, kinship and work experience” (Tilly, 1990, p. 84). Tacoli (2009, p. 108) shows an example of links between weather patterns and mobility in a context of varying human and social capital: Recent research in Burkina Faso suggests that a decrease in rainfall increases rural-rural temporary migration; on the other hand, migration to urban centres and abroad, which entails higher costs, is more likely to take place after normal rainfall periods and is influenced by migrants’ education, the existence of social networks and access to transport and roads. Po pul at i ng Adap tat i o n I nco rp o rat i ng P o p ul at i o n Dy nam i c s i n C li m at e Ch ange Adap tat i o n P o li c y an d P ract i c e

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