vulnerability and can help move analysis and intervention beyond the demographic determinism of lists of vulnerable populations. Third, some aspects of population dynamics provide a direct link to adaptation. For example, migration, whether undertaken as a response to the impacts of climate change or as a driver of changes in people’s location and exposure to hazards, must be considered in adaptation frameworks. When people have more control over their movements and location, including through migration and urbanization, they can decrease their exposure to climate risks. In addition, population ageing has been shown in many instances to affect vulnerability, for instance, with high levels of mortality among elderly individuals during heat waves (Semenza et al., 1996; Fouillet et al., 2006), while young children are particularly at risk from the more frequent and intense extreme weather events anticipated as a result of climate change (Barlett, 2009). The fact that women have less access to economic resources and less influence in decision-making means that gender plays an important role in affecting individual and household vulnerability (Alber, 2009). When the mechanisms linking these groups and their vulnerability are correctly specified, analysis of population characteristics and dynamics can be a powerful tool for adaptation programming and for building adaptive capacity. Including population dynamics in adaptation will help to fill a major gap that many have identified in the global climate change response to date: a focus on technical and economic challenges, without sufficient consideration of people’s livelihoods and opportunities. As we chart a path to adaptation in the decades to come, the result must be people-centred, with the well-being and rights of the most vulnerable people and communities considered a critical component of success. Incorporating population dynamics into adaptation can help in understanding who is most vulnerable, why and how to target policies to decrease that vulnerability.
Understanding Vulnerability An understanding of the nature of vulnerability is a vital first step in responding to the challenges posed by climate change. The way in which the term vulnerability—and its related concepts of exposure and adaptive capacity—is defined is closely related to the types of responses that are proposed. At the most basic level, identifying vulnerability as a function of inadequate infrastructure will lead to a focus on infrastructural responses; in contrast, identifying vulnerability as a function of inadequate social capital or networks will lead to a focus on capacity-strengthening. A more holistic approach will recognize that vulnerability, exposure and adaptive capacity need to engage with broader issues of development. This is one of the advantages of a systems perspective that incorporates population dynamics as important factors shaping all of these processes.
Definitions of vulnerability Specifically in relation to climate change adaptation, the most frequently used definition of vulnerability is that proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007), which states that it is: 6
The De mogra ph y of Ada ptation to C l imate Ch ange
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