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Populating Adaptation: Incorporating Population Dynamics in Climate Change Adaptation Policy and Practice Daniel Schensul and David Dodman
Introduction Climate change is increasingly recognized as a major challenge facing households and communities, local and national governments and international agencies and organizations. The earth’s climate has already been altered to such an extent that mitigation (efforts to reduce the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere) alone will be inadequate. Therefore adaptation (responding to the impacts of climate change) is increasingly necessary. Budgets for adaptation are increasing, programmes are expanding and political infrastructure is being negotiated and implemented. In the meantime, significant advances have been made in the development of adaptation programmes. Yet, to this point, existing approaches have had serious limitations. In the midst of a rapidly expanding global adaptation agenda, it is of primary importance to get adaptation and its constituent parts right, in order to generate the most appropriate and effective interventions. This chapter addresses a major gap in adaptation efforts to date by pointing to the vital role that an understanding of population dynamics has in developing effective adaptation policies and practices. It examines the key components of climate change vulnerability and adaptation and assesses the ways in which these interact with population dynamics. Understanding and reducing climate vulnerability are essential for effective adaptation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines vulnerability as a systemic characteristic associated with a range of factors, including ecosystems, water, food security, human settlements and health (see Figure 1.1). Vulnerability is identified as a function of climate change and development, and development includes changes in population dynamics, along with many other factors. This model illustrates a complex and interwoven system of causes and effects, without identifying or assessing the nature of the relationships between these factors. Partly as a result, current approaches to vulnerability and adaptation are based on a model with hidden gaps in understanding, which results in many key linkages being ignored, assumed or glossed over. Population dynamics are especially ignored, both for substantive reasons that this chapter will elaborate and attempt to ameliorate, but also unquestionably for political reasons. To many, population dynamics suggest size and growth. In the environmental Popul at i ng Adap tat i o n I nco rp o rat i ng P o p ul at i o n Dy nam i c s i n C li m at e Ch ange Adap tat i o n P o li c y an d P ract i c e
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