spatial analysis of the Malawi 2008 census with policy and stakeholder analysis, showing results that can be replicated elsewhere using existing in-country GIS capacity developed as part of the 2010 round of censuses. Focusing on five urban extents, Chapter 7 examines vulnerability linked to water, infrastructure, housing, energy and livelihoods expected to be the hardest hit by climate change events. Mapped census data show significant variations in the adaptive capacity of households and communities. The fact that many poor urban areas are far more similar to rural areas in vulnerability indicators is critical since aggregate statistics showing better average outcomes in urban areas tend to lead policy makers to consider vulnerability a rural problem. In addition, growing urban populations increase the spatial concentration of demands of energy, building materials and water. But their use also shapes patterns of urban vulnerability: As low-income residents are more heavily dependent on biomass for energy and natural materials for houses, they will suffer the most as the natural asset base is depleted. Existing efforts to address climate change in Malawi do not yet take into account many of these factors. The fact that most urban growth in Asia and Africa is still to come provides an opportunity to address urban vulnerability as or before it emerges. In Chapter 8, George Martine and Ricardo Ojima suggest that the increasing concentration of population in towns and cities of the developing world presents the most pressing challenge, and the greatest opportunity, for future adaptation efforts globally. Urban areas are, on the whole, more resilient to climate variability due to their economic and social advantages, yet, they are adding growing masses of population groups that are often the most vulnerable to climate change – the urban poor in exposed areas. Rapidly-urbanizing regions have a one-time chance to prepare better for potential risks. To do so, however, they will need better strategies and policies than the ones adopted so far in order to promote positive and forward-looking approaches. The authors present a case study of Brazil, a developing country which has practically completed an early urban transition, but whose urban population suffers unduly from natural disasters. They suggest that today’s vulnerability reflects the negative attitudes of decision-makers to urbanization, and analyze the implications of these attitudes for governance in relation to such issues as urban expansion, land use, sanitation and transportation. The growth in the number and size of megacities is cause for increasing concern in the context of climate change. Boris Graizbord, in Chapter 9, maps the areas at risk from hydro-meteorological hazards within one of the largest megacities – the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MA) – and identifies vulnerable populations and housing based on socioeconomic indicators derived from the census. The MA has continued to grow in terms of both population and area, but the demographic growth rate reached its peak in the 1960s at 3.6 per cent per year and declined steadily to 1 per cent recently, while the physical expansion of the urban area continued rapidly with decreasing density and, more recently, in a leapfrog pattern of growth. Economic growth and employment have not kept up as urban expansion has resulted both in an increase in the number and proportion of poor residents and an increased demand for public and private goods and services that has put more pressure on ecosystem resources. High vulnerability to natural hazards, based on population attributes and housing characteristics, affects close to xx
The De mogra ph y of Ada ptation to C l imate Ch ange
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