universally, the impacts of climate change are already upon us and are certain to increase in frequency and magnitude. Adaptation to climate change, already a major front in global climate response, must therefore be considerably improved in order to reduce the human suffering that climate change is causing. Adaptation is particularly essential in relation to the world’s poor, who are universally acknowledged as the social contingent that has made the least contribution to climate change, yet will experience its most deleterious consequences. Understanding and reducing climate vulnerability are at the center of effective adaptation. To this purpose, a broader understanding of the drivers of social change is essential in order to avoid superficial, overly general and deterministic perspectives. This book makes the point that population dynamics play a central role in livelihoods, location, economic vulnerability, environmental vulnerability and resilience. Understanding population dynamics is also critical in avoiding static perceptions of vulnerability: Changes that affect the size, distribution and composition of human populations also affect both the nature of vulnerability and adjustments in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli. Existing approaches to adaptation have had serious limitations, chief among which have been their reactive nature and the lack of solid data on which to base decisionmaking. Until now, the bulk of measures to reduce the impacts of climate-related hazards have been responsive in nature. Lingering beliefs that the ongoing escalation of the pace and intensification of extreme climate events reflects random occurrences unrelated to human actions, combined with the disinclination of politicians everywhere to undertake projects that will mature only in the long term, have made post-hoc measures the norm rather than the exception. The human and financial costs of such reflexive approaches are incalculable. Continuing the move towards anticipatory adaptation, including more longer-term preparation for climate impacts that will play out on decadal time frames, will be critical for effective and cost-effective climate response, and also for making a strong link to poverty reduction and development. The lack of solid information related to risk and vulnerability often provides a convenient justification for the lack of effective, proactive approaches. This is no longer a valid excuse: The correct use and exploitation of demographic data could provide a wealth of analyses and insights that can orient more effective approaches, particularly when applied to maps and tied to the geography of current and expected climate-related hazards. A focus on demographic dynamics can help address another major issue that many have identified in the global climate change response to date: that is, an inordinate focus on technical and economic challenges, without sufficient consideration of people’s livelihoods and opportunities. The path to adaptation in the decades to come must be more people-centred, with the well-being and rights of the most vulnerable people and communities considered a critical component of success. The benefits of including population dynamics in the design of adaptation strategies are several, as noted in the chapter by Daniel Schensul and David Dodman. First, population projections generally provide the most reliable scenarios concerning the size, location and characteristics of the need for adaptation efforts. Second, population issues are in themselves closely linked to economic and social development. The interactions between fertility, migration, spatial distribution, age structure, household size and composition, xvi
The De mogra ph y of Ada ptation to C l imate Ch ange
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