153 Excluded by mainstream society from
participating fully in the economic, social and political life of their society, often because some group characteristics (for example, cultural, religious or racial). See Stewart and others (2006). 154 Zeitlyn 2004. 155 Stewart 2010. 156 Motives of group leaders may be lack of political power, while followers care more about social and cultural inequality (see Stewart 2008). See also OECD (2011a) for a discussion of some critical socioeconomic drivers of inequality in developing countries and their interaction. 157 Østby’s (2008a) analysis of 55 countries over 1986–2003 finds a significant rise in the probability of conflict in countries with severe economic and social horizontal inequality. Mancini (2008) indicates that violent conflict is more likely to occur in areas with less economic development and greater religious polarization. He also finds that measures of (vertical) income inequality as well as other purely demographic indicators of ethnic diversity did not affect the likelihood of communal violence (see also Stewart 2008, 2010 and Hoeffler 2012). Other research has suggested considering social exclusion as vertically occurring processes of disadvantage, since this provides a more nuanced understanding of how social dislocations may lead to conflict in a way that avoids the tendency to blame inequality-induced conflict on the lower social strata without incorporating the role often played by the elites in many conflict episodes (see Fischer 2008). 158 The connection between social exclusion and conflict can be illustrated in many examples: the Muslim rebellions in the Philippines and Thailand; the separatist movements of Aceh, Timor-Leste and Papua in Indonesia; and the separatism of East Pakistan and Eritrea, among others (see Stewart 2010). 159 Evidence links some of these episodes to periods of economic policy reform (such as changes in trade policy). See Kanbur (2007). 160 Marc and others 2012. 161 Stewart and others 2006. See also Stewart (2010) for a typology of the different approaches to manage horizontal inequality. 162 Parlow 2012. 163 EWSCWA 2007. 164 UNHCR 2012. 165 Of this figure, 17.7 million were internally displaced persons and 10.5 million were refugees (2.3 million more than in 2011). The refugee figure was close to that of 2011 (10.4 million), and the number of internally displaced
persons increased 2.2 million since the end of 2011 (UNHCR 2012). 166 Conflict—in particular, civil wars— was found to be associated with underperformance on the Human Development Index (progress significantly below what could be expected given the initial conditions), since 60 percent of countries that experience this kind of conflict (28 of 46 countries in the sample) under performed (see UNDP 2010). 167 Human Development Report Office calculation based on Uppsala Conflict Data Program data on battle deaths. 168 Other important services that may be severely affected by conflict are reproductive health services. For example, couples may not have access to family planning services, increasing unwanted pregnancies and unsafe abortions (see WHO 2000). 169 Sudanese children ages 7–12 who were living in northern Uganda and had been exposed to war were more likely to have behavioural problems, symptoms of depression and complaints similar to post-traumatic stress disorder than were Ugandan children who had not been affected by war (Paardekooper, De Jong and Hermanns 1999). 170 Using household data for Colombia, Engel and Ibanez (2007) show that perceptions of safety can have a decisive influence on migration. 171 Acts of gender-based and sexual violence against women and girls (including mass rape) are increasingly common features of war and conflict (see WHO 2000). 172 Gagro 2010.
9 Deacon and Cohen 2011. 10 Heller (2005) defines fiscal space as
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29
Chapter 4 1
2 3 4 5 6
7 8
136 | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2014
Bolsa Família evolved from Bolsa Escola as a conditional cash transfer programme with incentives for parents to keep children in school and regularly visit health centres. In 2006 Bolsa Família was estimated to cost 0.5 percent of Brazil’s GDP and about 2.5 percent of total government expenditure, while covering about 11.2 million families, or about 44 million Brazilians. Mkandawire 2001; Kumlin and Rothstein 2005. UN General Assembly 2013b, p. 12. UN General Assembly 2013a, p. 11. Deacon and Cohen 2011. Korpi and Palme (1998, p. 661) define the paradox as, “The more we target benefits at the poor and the more concerned we are with creating equality via equal public transfers to all, the less likely we are to reduce poverty and inequality.” Mkandawire 2001; Rothstein 2001. Baldwin 1990.
30 31 32 33 34 35
36 37 38 39
40 41
room in a government´s budget that allows it to provide resources for a desired purpose without jeopardizing the sustainability of its financial position or the stability of the economy. The Nordic model could be financed precisely because it also included provisions to support full employment. Full employment generated the tax revenues needed to pay for the Nordic model. UNICEF 2008. ILO and UNDP 2011. UNICEF 2008. UNICEF 2008. ILO 2011b. Waters, Saadah and Pradhan 2003. Waters, Saadah and Pradhan 2003. Mok, Lawler and Hinsz 2009. At the same time, the traditional familial and community networks and other social institutions in Thailand remained relatively stable, with the rural-urban links providing an informal safety net for the dispossessed. UNDP 2011c. Ringen 1988. Esping-Andersen 1999; Palme 2006. ILO 2011b. Esping-Andersen and Myles 2008. Jäntti and Bradbury 2001. Nelson (2004) traced the high poverty reduction in Sweden to high redistribution by non–means tested provisions, such as universal provisions. ILO and UNDP 2011. UNDP 2013a. Female literacy and education indicators for women can be better indicators of the coverage education since aggregate indicators may average out gender differences in education achievements. This is particularly true for patriarchal societies where women are likely to have less access to education and health care resources than men are. Meng and Tang 2010. Xinhua New Service 2013. MacLeod and Urquiola 2012. Young 2014. Dalman and Bremberg 1999. The advantages gained from effective early interventions are best sustained when they are followed by continued investments in high-quality education. The returns on school investment are higher for people with stronger cognitive skills, where cognitive development happens in the early years. Heckman 2005. Bornstein and others 2008. Hackman, Farah and Meaney 2010; Nelson, Fox and Zeanah 2014. For an overview of the literature on the correlation between socioeconomic status and early childhood development, see Young (2014). ILO 2014. Amsden 2001; Chang 1993.
42 ILO 2006a. 43 Heyer, Stewart and Thorp 1999;
Thorp, Stewart and Heyer 2005. 44 For reviews of public works pro-
45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
53
54 55 56 57 58 59
60 61
62
63 64 65 66
grammes, see Devereux and Solomon (2006) and Lal and others (2010). Zepeda and others 2013. Kostzer 2008. Muqtada 1987; Ahmed and others 1995. Marshall and Butzbach 2003; Devereux and Solomon 2006. Langer and others 2012; Date-Bah 2003. KC and others 2014. Hausmann 2013. The understanding of diversified rural livelihoods is one of the generic insights coming out of the literature on livelihoods. In some cases development transitions may lead to new social security regimes, or there might be feedback effects between economic transitions and social protections. China National Bureau of Statistics 2011. UNRISD 2010. UNDP 2011a. Hoon 2011. Stephan 2009. Moreover, the point is also made that Germany’s wage subsidies over the period seem to be fiscally beneficial. Estimated fiscal gains amount to €1,600–2,000 for men in East Germany and to €500–1,000 for men in West Germany and women in East Germany over the observation period of 3.5 years. Careful design and implementation are critical to avoid windfall gains to employers that do not produce net benefits. Burns, Edwards and Pauw 2010. Gupta and Larssen 2010, p. 26. Specifically, the researchers found “that for the long-term disabled with a working capacity reduction in the 18–49 age group, employment probability is raised by 33 pct. points after the scheme was introduced relative to a mean employment rate at a baseline of 44 percent.” Bonilla García and Gruat (2003, p. 13) define social protection “as the set of public measures that a society provides for its members to protect them against economic and social distress that would be caused by the absence or a substantial reduction of income from work as a result of various contingencies (sickness, maternity, employment injury, unemployment, invalidity, old age, and death of the breadwinner); the provision of health care; and, the provision of benefits for families with children.” Roxburgh and Mischke 2011 Paci, Revenga and Rijkers 2011. ODI 2008. Paci, Revenga and Rijkers 2011, p. 13.