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Macroeconomic policy, exchange rates and petroleum prices were key determinants of price variability over 2005−2010. The 2011 HDR (UNDP 2011a) argued that environmental risk can greatly increase global inequality. Cutter and others 2009. WHO 2011a. IPCC 2013. IPCC 2014. UNDP 2013c. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program/ Peace Research Institute Oslo defines four types of armed conflict: interstate, which occurs between two or more states, internal, which occurs between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups without intervention from other states, internationalized internal, which occurs between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition groups with intervention from other states (secondary parties) on one or both sides, and extrasystemic, which occurs between a state and a nonstate group outside its own territory. Extrasystemic conflicts mainly relate to the colonial wars. To reduce the number of categories, extrasystemic conflicts are included in interstate conflicts, and internationalized internal conflicts are included in internal conflicts. For the past three years income inequality has topped the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks ranking in terms of likelihood (see World Economic Forum 2014). OECD 2012.
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We are particularly concerned about the potential restriction of choices that people have reason to value. See Young (2014). Fuentes-Nieva and Galasso 2014. Stiglitz 2012b. Pineda and Rodríguez 2006a; Bénabou 2000; Alesina and others 1996. UNDP 2013a. Schroder-Butterfill and Marianti 2006. Results also depend on the kind of indicator used. For example, the potential for catchup after early stunting is found to be positive for height z scores, but there is less evidence of catchup for height. This implies that there are cases in which reversal is possible but that the evidence is mixed and context specific (see Cameron, Preece and Cole 2005). Shonkoff and Richter 2013. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region that has not substantially reduced the share of children under age 5 since 1970 (Human Development Report
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Office calculations based on Lutz and KC 2013). See Young (2002). Shonkoff and Phillips 2000; McCain, Mustard and McCuaig 2011; Shonkoff and others 2012. Hertzman and Boyce 2010. Early human development is an intricate and dynamic interaction between nature and nurture—that is, genes and the environment. Genes ‘listen’ to the environment, and the environment ‘adapts’ the genetic blueprint. The environment modifies expression of genes (for example, gene variants, phenotype) and can turn genes on and off through the epigenetic process. In this process, experiences leave a chemical signature, or epigenetic mark, that alters genetic expression without changing the DNA sequence. Many of these changes are temporary, but others seem to endure (see McCain, Mustard and McCuaig 2011 and Young 2013). These results are not deterministic; they simply reflect that earlier adversity is associated with a higher likelihood of adverse effects in the future (see Anda and others 2006, Felitti and others 1998, Hertzman and Boyce 2010 and Young 2014). Bhutta 2002; Engle and others 2007, 2011; Alderman and Engle 2008; Armecin and others 2006. McEwen 2008. Exposure to a development risk increases the likelihood of compromised development, but it is not deterministic. It implies only that the child is more likely to face development challenges. The evidence also highlights that this could reduce the impact of the child’s exposure to protective factors or interventions to promote early childhood development (see Wachs and Rahman 2013). Heckman 2006. Young 2014. Many of the same risks that are commonly encountered by children growing up in poverty in low- and medium-income countries are also encountered by poor children growing up in high-income countries, even though risks are fewer for the latter (see Wachs and Rahman 2013). Lack of birth registration may severely limit a child’s right to full citizenship, and it may prevent a child from receiving most forms of child protection, such as health care. The region in which birth registration is most challenging is South Asia, which accounted for about half the 51 million children without birth registration in the world in 2007 (see Engle, Rao and Petrovic 2013). Nutrition is a critical factor beginning at the early development stages. Both the quantity and quality of infants’ nutrition have important effects on their
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growth. Feeding practices and weaning of infants affect their weight and their morbidity and mortality. Studies show that suboptimal breastfeeding and nonexclusive breastfeeding in the first 6 months of life account for 10 percent of the burden of disease in children under age 5 (Black and others 2008). Young 2014. Brooks-Gunn and Duncan 1997. Engle and others 2007. Hart and Risley 1995. Carneiro and Heckman (2003) also found differences in cognitive skills that correlated with socioeconomic class as early as age 6. Ardila and others 2005. A few studies in developing countries are showing similar findings of the link between socioeconomic status and cognitive development (Naudeau and others 2011). A study in Ecuador (Paxson and Schady 2007) shows that household wealth (and parent education) is associated with higher scores on tests of receptive language and that the gaps among older children are larger. Interactions include back-and-forth communication with caregivers, vocalization, gestures, facial expressions and body movements. The interactions may be warm expressions by mothers, physical contact and play, visual mutuality and vocal exchanges, and mothers’ response to infants in timely and appropriate ways (Bornstein and others 2008). See also Bornstein and Putnick (2012) on cognitive and socioemotional positive caregiving activities. NICHD 2006. However, the effect was negative and small but not statistically different from zero for children ages 7–12 at the time of the crisis (Stevens and Schaller 2011; Falkingham 2000; Frankenberg, Duncan and Beege 1999). Falkingham 2000. Child labour is also an outcome of income insecurity and labour market vulnerability among working adults. Child labour is a coping mechanism of poor households—precisely those most vulnerable to adverse shocks to their livelihoods (Basu and Van 1998). Young 2014. Heckman 2013. McCain, Mustard and Shanker 2007; Mustard 2006. WHO 2002; Heise 1998; Abramsky and others 2011; Abrahams and Jewkes 2005. However, some authors highlight that underreporting issues could make it difficult to have conclusive evidence (Berliner and Elliot 1996). Pereda and others (2009), examining 65 studies from 22 countries. Bos and others 2009.
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2012. 41 The International Labour Organization
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defines youth as people ages 15–24 (ILO 2013b). Human Development Report Office calculations based on UN (2014b) and Lutz and KC (2013). ILO 2013a. Verick 2009; Ha and others 2010. ILO 2012a. Verick 2009. Assaad and Levison 2013. As documented in UNDP (2013a). The ‘youth bulge’ is estimated to bring more than 120 million new young people a year into the job market, mostly in developing countries (see World Economic Forum 2014). The World Bank estimates that more than 25 percent of young people in the world (around 300 million) have no productive work (see Newhouse 2013). This is not only because of economic considerations, but also because of the lack of trust and social ties that exclusion from productive opportunities brings about (see Assaad and Levison 2013). Under the base case scenario, youth unemployment is expected to be even slightly higher by 2050 (14.3 percent). The gap will close in South Asia, albeit slowly, as supply begins to decrease around 2035. Boyden, Hardgrove and Knowles 2012. Pells 2011. Ames, Rojas and Portugal 2009; Woldehanna, Jones and Tefera 2008. See also Vennam and others (2009). Morrow 2013. Rolleston and James 2011. These results are not driven by differences in school attendance, since in these countries girls are more likely to be in school at age 15 (see Hardgrove and others 2014). Including the risk of social stigma to lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgendered and questioning young people in all societies. Another vulnerability that comes with sexual experience is the exposure to risks of sexually transmitted infections. Hardgrove 2012. Bunting and McAuley 2004. Pinheiro 2006. Kelly 2010. UNDP 2013b. Krug and others 2002a. Vulnerable employment is the sum of unpaid family workers and ownaccount workers. International Labour Organization projections show that by 2017 the share of working poor among the total employed population is expected to decline to 17 percent in South Asia and 32 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa (ILO 2013a).