European Union The EU proposes a binding target of at least 40 per cent domestic reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 1990. It includes all sectors and gases. The INDC also states a policy on including LULUCF in the 2030 GHG mitigation framework – to be established as soon as technical conditions allow and in any case before 2020.
While the modelling groups largely agree on the impact of the EU’s INDC on its emissions, the Climate Action Tracker estimates a higher level of emissions in 2030 due to its accounting assumptions regarding LULUCF. CAT (2015) assumes that LULUCF accounting rules may lead to credits for 2030 of the order of 1-4 per cent of 1990 emissions. All other studies assume a net-net approach.
Figure A1.5: GHG emissions of the European Union under the 2020 pledge, INDC and current policy trajectory case The official and national studies are: UNFCCC inventories for historic data/6th National Communication for projections EU28 (UNFCCC National Reports, 2015) and EEA (2015) Mt CO2e 6 000
5 500
5 000
CROADS U.Melbourne LSE PBL CAT
4 500
Official Median 2020 pledges 10th-90th percentile for pledges
4 000
3 500
3 000 1990
56
2010
2020
2025 Current policy trajectory
2030
The Emissions Gap Report 2015 – Annex 1: Country-specific findings
2030 INDC
2020 Pledge Uncond.
Cond.