Box 2.2: Assumptions of analysis of progress towards pledges For each country or Party, Table 2.2 compares estimates for 2020 emissions under three cases: 1. Pledge case (official data): identifies the maximum level of GHG emissions that each country or Party could emit in 2020 and still meet its pledge – without considering the use of offsets. If a pledge is presented as a range (Brazil, China and India), the less ambitious end of the range is adopted as the official pledge estimate. If a country has both a conditional and unconditional pledge (Indonesia), only the unconditional pledge is used. If a country has only a conditional pledge (Mexico, South Africa), the conditional pledge is used. For countries whose pledges are framed relative to a baseline scenario, it is assumed that baselines are not adjusted in the future. For countries whose pledges are framed as GHG intensity targets, economic growth consistent with official projections is assumed22. Where available, the 2020 emission level described by the country or Party as the pledge level is used; alternatively, these levels are calculated working from official base-year or baseline data. 2. Current policy trajectory case (official data): identifies official estimates of 2020 emissions considering projected economic trends and current policy approaches, including policies at least through 2012. 3. Current policy trajectory case (independent analysis): similarly identifies estimates of 2020 emissions considering the best current estimates of projected economic trends and current policy approaches, but is based on independent analysis rather than official data. Figures are drawn from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT, 2015) and den Elzen et al. (2015) for all countries, as well as other, country-specific sources where noted. Current policy trajectory (independent analysis) supplements the official sources described in point two by providing data that aim for consistency across countries and political independence. Projections only consider a limited subset of sectors and gases, for example, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are omitted, as they cannot be compared to projections and targets that include the full set of GHGs across the entire economy.
22 For China, GDP is assumed to reach 61.6 trillion yuan in 2020, consistent with China’s National Communication (People’s Republic of China, 2012). For India, GDP is assumed to reach 120.41 trillion rupees (’06–‘07 rupee value) in 2020, consistent with the average of the scenarios presented in Planning Commission Government of India (2014).
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The Emissions Gap Report 2015 –The importance of pre-2020 action