(if fully implemented) be sufficient to stay within the range consistent with the 2oC temperature goal? iv) What are possible contributions in selected key areas, where action can be accelerated to enhance the ambition of national pledges both in the period before and after the expected entry into force in 2020 of the Paris Agreement? This year the detailed assessment is on possible mitigation contributions from International Cooperative Initiatives (ICIs) and enhanced forest-related mitigation activities with a focus on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+).
1.3 Aim of the report and assessment principles This is the sixth UNEP Emissions Gap Report and while the focus of the assessment has gradually shifted from initially examining the emissions gap in 2020 to focusing on 2030, the scientific basis has remained firmly based on the best available analysis worldwide. The objective of the report remains the same, which is to assess the global progress towards the emissions reductions required to be on track towards the agreed target of limiting global average temperature increase to below 2°C by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial levels. In parallel, the report assesses the possible actions to be taken to achieve the necessary reductions and how these can be accelerated and scaled up to close the gap between the target and actual emissions trends – a constant feature of this series of reports.
1.4 INDC Assessment process The INDC assessment team’s approach has been to assess the impacts of the INDCs on future global GHG emissions. Global GHG emissions in 2025 and 2030 are compared under four scenarios – the baseline scenario (assuming no additional climate policies since 2010), the current policy trajectory scenario (includes currently adopted and implemented policies), the INDC scenario (how global GHG emissions might evolve with full implementation of the INDCs) and the 2°C scenario (representing an idealized global scenario consistent with limiting warming to below 2°C by 2100, keeping the option open to strengthen the global temperature target to 1.5°C). Each scenario is a composite in the sense that it draws on multiple individual scenarios from the published literature. The emissions gap is estimated as the difference between the INDC scenario and the 2°C scenario. The approach to the assessment is characterized by the following principles: i)
For nationally-generated data, assessment is based on the figures directly available in the officially submitted INDCs ii) For independently-generated data, assessment is based on peer-reviewed published analyses (or on related outputs) by independent modelling groups/
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The Emissions Gap Report 2015 – Scoping the 2015 report
analysts based on the analysis of the information available in the INDCs iii) Participation of a balanced team of experts in the INDC assessment (by gender, professional and sectoral background, institutional affiliation and geographical location). In the process of preparing the Report and the INDC assessment, experts have frequently debated differences in understanding of assumptions (such as forms of mitigation contribution, conditional versus unconditional INDCs, use of international market mechanisms and treatment of the land use sector). By scrutinising assumptions (used by governments, independent modelling groups and international bodies), the team has been able to resolve many inconsistencies which, in turn, has led to increased confidence in the accuracy and validity of results.
1.5 Organization of the report The report comprises six chapters – this first one scoping the outline, with subsequent ones falling under two main parts of the report. Part I comprises Chapters 2 and 3. Chapter 2 focuses on the importance of enhanced pre-2020 mitigation action. It starts by presenting recent estimates for global emission levels and assesses pathways consistent with the 2°C and 1.5°C temperature goals, based on the latest available literature. It then explains why enhanced early action matters and outlines the implications of not enhancing action, followed by a review of progress with current 2020 pledges. Chapter 3 assesses the 119 INDCs, covering 146 countries, submitted by 1 October 2015, with a specific focus on the extent to which the INDCs in aggregate contribute to a reduction in global GHG emissions consistent with limiting average global temperature increase to below 2°C in 2100 with >66 per cent chance. The chapter quantifies an emissions gap – the gap in 2025 and 2030 between future emission levels with the INDCs fully implemented and the emission levels consistent with the temperature goals of 1.5°C and 2°C in 2100. PART II explores some of the opportunities for narrowing and potentially bridging the estimated emissions gap in 2030. It starts with an overview of key issues and potentials for reducing GHG emissions by 2030, based on an assessment of a number of recent studies. This is followed by two focal chapters. Chapter 5 assesses the possible contribution to global mitigation efforts by key International Cooperative Initiatives (ICIs) led by actors other than the Parties to the UNFCCC. Finally, Chapter 6 reviews a range of forest-related mitigation activities and identifies the technical potential for both CO2 emissions reductions and sequestration from these activities in developing countries, and with a special focus on REDD+. As in previous editions, this year’s Report has been put together by an international team of top scientists. This year 42 scientists from 24 scientific groups in 18 countries have contributed to the report.