Chapter 1
Scoping the 2015 report Lead authors: John Christensen (UNEP DTU Partnership), Paul Burgon (independent consultant)
1.1 Moving towards a new international climate change agreement
of the intended nationally determined contributions” (UNFCCC, 2014).
The year 2015 has the potential to become a turning point in global efforts to transform the prevailing economic development paradigm into a more sustainable one.
The architecture of a new climate agreement has many facets relating to mitigation and adaptation, and the array of issues under negotiation has become significantly more complex since the Convention was established. The Paris Agreement will also aim to establish a framework to enhance capacity building and provide technological and financial support for developing countries to accelerate the transition towards low carbon and climate resilient development paths. A number of key decisions related to these issues will be required, while the core structure of the agreement will be based on the INDCs.
All UN member countries reached agreement in September 2015 on a set of 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) to be achieved by 2030. The main political instrument to address SDG 13 - “Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts” - is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Countries will meet again at the UNFCCC 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21) in Paris with the aim of establishing a new international climate change agreement, hereafter the ‘Paris Agreement’, with the ambition of limiting changes in global temperatures to below 2oC or 1.5°C warming in 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels. The decision “[…] to adopt a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties” originated at COP 17 in Durban (Decision 1/CP.17) and has been confirmed most recently at COP 20 in Lima (Decision 1/CP.20) (UNFCCC, 2014). As the foundation for a new agreement, and reiterating decisions of COP 19 in Warsaw, the ‘Lima Call for Climate Action’ requested each Party “[…] to communicate to the secretariat its intended nationally determined contribution [INDC] towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2” (UNFCCC, 1992)1 ensuring that these are submitted “[…] well in advance of the twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties […] in a manner that facilitates the clarity, transparency and understanding
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Article 2 states “The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner” (UNFCCC, 1992).
1.2 Key questions Subsequent to COP 15, UNEP has produced an annual Emissions Gap Report presenting an up-to-date assessment of how actions, pledges and commitments by countries affect the global GHG emissions trend and how this compares to emissions trajectories consistent with the goal of keeping temperatures below 1.5°C or 2°C by 2100. The difference has become known as the emissions gap, calculated for specific target years. This year, UNEP was requested by a number of countries to undertake an independent scientific assessment of the INDC submissions to inform the political process. The UNFCCC Secretariat has undertaken the formal compilation for COP 21. The 2015 UNEP Emissions Gap Report asks four principal questions: i)
What are the latest estimates of 2025 and 2030 total global emissions levels consistent with the goal of holding the global average temperature rise below 2oC or 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels by 2100? ii) What is the progress on implementation of the Cancun pledges for the period to 2020? iii) Will the combined INDC commitments for 2030 The Emissions Gap Report 2015 – Scoping the 2015 report
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