Foreword Following the historic signing of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, this sixth edition of the UNEP Emissions Gap Report comes as world leaders start gathering in Paris to establish a new agreement on climate change. The report offers an independent assessment of the mitigation contributions from the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) committed to by 1 October 2015, by the 146 countries that account for around 90 per cent of global emissions. It compares the 2030 emission levels that would result from these commitments with what science tells us would keep average temperature increases on track to stay below 2°C by the end of the century; it provides data for an aspirational target of keeping that increase below 1.5°C; and it evaluates the INDCs in relation to progress on the 2020 pledges made in Cancun. The INDCs demonstrate a significant increase in ambition and their successful delivery could reduce emissions by around 25 per cent compared to the level expected from current policies and pledges. However, this would still put long-term temperatures on track for an increase and lead to serious climate impact, so more action is required. Therefore, the Emissions Gap Report also explores how available financial, technical and capacity building solutions can be scaled up, or even accelerated, to close the gap between the expected and required levels of emissions. This includes detailed assessments that look beyond the INDCs to identify the further gains being identified by the International Cooperative Initiatives and by Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+).
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The Emissions Gap Report 2015 – Chapter ForewordName
With many new emission reduction initiatives also generating substantial economic, social and environmental benefits, the INDC preparation process in most countries encouraged greater exploration of the links between development and climate. This is an important first step in a possible transition towards more low carbon economies. The Emissions Gap Report makes it very clear that while reaching a meaningful global agreement in Paris is essential, it is not the end of the climate change story: it is a stepping stone on a much longer journey that requires us to stay alert to the science and remain dynamic in our response. The world has already tripled the expected performance on scaling up clean energy and been able to start reversing damage to the ozone layer. I firmly believe that if we act on the findings of this report, there is nothing to stop us closing the emissions gap and creating a more inclusive and sustainable future for both the developed and the developing world.
Achim Steiner UN Under-Secretary-General, UNEP Executive Director