Sub-regional Summaries
executive summary
Northern Africa
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Northern Africa is highly urbanized, with most of its cities unevenly spread along its Mediterranean coastline and the Nile Valley and Delta. The estimated 11-million population of Cairo, a megacity, is projected to grow at an annual rate of at least two per cent until at least 2020. Northern Africa’s cities have been the scene of many dramatic events since 2011, characterized as “The Arab Spring”, a period of social and political struggle that is not yet ended. Whatever the political and religious overtones of these upheavals, at their root lay the failure of political leaders to cater adequately for the needs of their large, young and mostly urban-based populations. The imperative for new governments will remain the provision of responsive urban governance and affordable housing alternatives for large numbers of hitherto marginalized urban youth. It is also crucial that Northern African cities deliver gainful urban-based employment opportunities in line with the demands of the young urban masses. This is essential to an economic recovery plan as Northern African economies are slow to recover from the effects of the uprisings in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia and since continued unrest will reduce the chances for resumed economic growth. Recent upheavals have also drawn attention to the needs of secondary cities where much of the Arab Spring was incubated. The renewal of Northern Africa’s historic city centres forms part of the plan to revive tourism revenues, which dropped drastically in the wake of the violent political unrest and the global economic downturn. This does not, however, constitute the type of urban renewal that will contribute to improved living standards for the urban poor. Climate change, projected to exacerbate existing desertification and water stress, constitutes a major threat to Northern Africa’s urban populations. The negative effects on agriculture will increase the need for food imports, with adverse effects on regional balances of payments. This might even restart the rural-urban exodus that seemed to have abated some years ago. Northern Africa’s cities are largely dependent on the recharge of huge aquifers under the Sahara Desert, but these groundwater sources are being depleted. Along the Nile Valley the effects of climate change are expected to be particularly severe and, according to some projections, potentially catastrophic. Urban water infrastructures must be rehabilitated and maintained to eliminate unnecessary wastage and more investment in wastewater treatment and reuse is essential. Climate change will render most of Northern Africa’s cities more vulnerable to disasters associated with extreme weather patterns, especially flooding, while desertification presents a threat to Sudan’s rural economy and food production. Some governments have already responded by framing plans taking these threats into account. Careful monitoring and regional cooperation will help anticipate threats as they emerge and allow for exchange of ideas and information. The Nile
Delta requires special attention as it is especially vulnerable to inundation and saltwater intrusion. On the other hand, Northern Africa’s climate offers immense opportunities for the generation of renewable solar and wind energy, and exploitation of these has commenced. In general, Northern Africa’s systems of urban governance remain too inflexible to respond to popular demands with the necessary speed and agility. Well-established networks of bureaucratic power and privilege have become entrenched to a degree that makes their replacement difficult, even in the face of massive unrest. In this context, the realization of the types of innovation and popular involvement in urban planning that might solve the problems of the region’s city dwellers remain a remote prospect. The financing of urban policy will also be difficult until accurate urban data are available and decentralized tax collection is organized in an equitable manner. Inequality and informality remain rife, despite claims by Northern African governments that social housing projects have significantly reduced the proportion of slum settlements. In part, this reflects a general weakness in formal (and informal) institutions and a need for systems of land management and housing acquisition unencumbered by bureaucracy, nepotism and inefficiency. It is encouraging that public debate is moving towards accepting the permanence of informality, focusing instead on ways in which the marginalized can be involved in decisions affecting their lives and seeking to provide services to all urban dwellers, regardless of socio-economic status. Public transport is receiving increasing attention in Northern African cities, which suffer from congestion and pollution caused by massive numbers of private motor vehicles. Costeffective and energy efficient mass public transport systems are essential to achieve the internal social synergies vital to the health of the urban organism. The almost exclusively urban political pressures that exploded into the Arab Spring may have opened the way for thorough debate about the future of the region’s urban project. Urban youth has made its political presence felt and its demands will be neglected at some peril by whatever governments eventually emerge from the turmoil. Similarly, the Arab Spring and its ideological discourse have placed gender issues at the centre of the discussion on the role of Northern African women in public life. Although networks of political and economic power may have survived the fall of discredited governments, even they must now take into account the changing social face of the region. Employment, food and shelter will not be provided in sufficient measure to the burgeoning numbers of urban youth eager to set up their own households unless there are radical departures from the prevailing approach to urban planning. Nor will prestige “modernizing” projects solve the current crisis, even if they are financially viable, which is doubtful under the current economic climate.