immediate threat, not least because many large cities lie along the coast and are especially vulnerable to sea level rise, saline penetration, storm surges, flooding and coastal erosion. Additionally, cities in more remote areas are prone to climate change impacts such as failed crops and rising energy costs that can cause price hikes and food scarcity. Building adaptive capacity at all scales is essential for ensuring future urban climate resilience. Participation and inclusivity are key elements of boosting adaptive capacity at local levels, to aid identification of the key existing and potential vulnerabilities in specific locales, and to link shortterm priorities to long-term plans. Critically, climate change needs to be factored into all areas of development planning and not treated as a separate development issue. This requires building of the institutional capacity to identify and act upon the critical linkages that enable adaptation. For example, greater socio-political cohesion and stability will be achieved by harnessing cooperative and competitive linkages for greater economic cohesion and by strengthening inclusive processes of governance. Urban risk reduction policies can yield mutual benefits148 including in-situ upgrading of informal settlements; zoning to protect areas at risk; development of new, less risk-prone land with efficient transport systems; and promotion of densification in urban areas.
impacts of disasters. Some disasters can be prevented, for example, urban flooding can be exacerbated by ecological degradation of upstream catchment areas. Thus, reducing degradation and improving catchment function can reduce risk. Likewise, citizen drills for post-disaster situations can enhance the chances of survival of communities and individuals, thereby reducing vulnerability. Increasing adaptive capacity and internal resilience depends on the ability of urban systems to respond to sudden loss of capacity in one area of the system (e.g. energy supply failures, water supply shortages, food price increases, energy price increases). Some of the key areas that can improve internal resilience to disaster events in African cities include: • Improving response times through establishing early warning systems – this requires monitoring and measuring (e.g. of upstream river flows and rainfall patterns) • Compilation of simple, yet effective maps and databases that highlight, for example, areas of exposure, hazard and vulnerability, indicating probability, magnitude and frequency of possible events, as well as the population and localities most likely to be affected • Clearly designated lines of authority in times of disaster where institutions (e.g. military, police and aid agencies) have a clear, predetermined framework of cooperation and action • Building adaptive capacity with greater flexibility, to defend against unforeseen threats, including by establishing functional network groupings, linkages and clusters • Adaptation strategies that directly focus on the key vulnerabilities of the urban poor.
Disaster Risk Reduction Disaster records for Africa between 1974 and 2003 (Table 1.5) indicated that the East was worst hit while the central sub-region had the lowest incidence. The data further showed that the frequency of disasters in Africa was increasing.149 Large-scale climatic phenomena, such as the El-Niño Southern Oscillation, introduce uncertainty into forecasts of weather variability for the region. As a result, climate change impacts are difficult to project reliably. Yet natural drivers of disaster are only part of the reason for Africa’s particular vulnerability. Weak institutional capacity, low infrastructure provision and deep poverty incidence render Africa less able to prepare for, or adequately respond to, climate change and natural disasters. It is important to differentiate between disaster risk and disaster vulnerability. Disaster readiness or preparedness does not reduce risk but can reduce vulnerabilities and actual
Re-imagining African Development Trajectories
Towards Local Scale African Urban Sustainability Sustainable development in general and development of cities in particular depend on whether economic growth trajectories are able to decouple, significantly, from wasteful resource utilization and ecological degradation.150 This requires strategy, policy and regulatory instruments including bodies to monitor and influence the development patterns of cities. Yet decoupling alone is not enough. Development
Table 1.5: Empirical Records for Disaster Incidences in Africa from 1974-2003 Region/Disaster Type
CHAPTER ONE
Natural disasters
46
Northern
Western
Central
Eastern
Southern
14
24
10
41
11
Hydro-meteorological disasters
13
25
10
41
11
Geological disasters
38
7
17
31
7
Drought hazards
45
28
101
31
128
Flood Hazards
7
9
4
16
3
Volcanic disasters
0
1
6
4
0
26
43
8
58
16
Disasters that caused economic damage Source: Adapted from Lukamba 2010 pp. 485-489.