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How can African cities and their poor households be made more resilient to exogenous shocks, especially in the costs of food, goods and services? In the following sub-sections, key global, regional and local trends that are emerging in respect of African cities are explored with discussion on how the considerations listed above can be met by harnessing emerging trends.
Economic Growth Trends Africa’s GDP in 2008 was USD 1.6 trillion with a total consumer spending of USD 869 billion.112 Continental GDP is projected to rise to USD 2.6 trillion, and consumer spending to USD 1.4 trillion by 2020.113 Africa’s GDP growth between 2000 and 2008 was evenly spread across a range of sectors, with resources in the lead at 24 per cent, followed by wholesale and retail at 13 per cent, transport and communications at 10 per cent and manufacturing at 9 per cent (Table 1.3). The compound average annual growth rates of these sectors were also high, ranging between around 4 per cent and 9 per cent for all sectors (see Table 1.3). These high rates of growth are attributed to improvements in political and macroeconomic stability and microeconomic reforms,
THE STATE OF AFRICAN CITIES 2014
The Demographic Dividend African cities generally feature high rates of growth and relatively youthful populations. The two most desirable outcomes of the youth bulge are that it should constitute a large labour force, which can drive development, as well as provide a large emerging urban consumer market with global and regional relevance. The key challenges regarding Africa’s youthful labour force include: • Putting in place policies and mechanisms for greater inclusion of the youth in formal sector activities, as well as recognizing and supporting the potential for informal sector operators to semi-formalize their activities over time • Improving education, skills development, literacy and vocational training opportunities for urban youth at local scales. Positive yields from the currently lagging African demographic dividend will likely only be possible if literacy and skills levels are significantly improved and match the growth trajectories of African national and local economies • Improving mobility for African urban youth to access urban opportunities and operate beyond their immediate neighbourhoods. Spatial integration of youth constitutes a major challenge in Africa, where poor and low-income youth are marginalized or excluded from employment opportunities and are often “trapped” within their neighbourhoods by virtue of ethnic, class, religious and other types of segregation. Public transit systems should, for example, lower charges for youth • Increasing access to information and communications technologies (ICT) which can improve access, mobility and situational awareness. This is evidenced by the “Map Kibera”110 project, which draws on youth ingenuity and participation to influence development planning and encourage broader social inclusion in the daily affairs of Kibera (Nairobi), as well as providing more accurate population data and information for urban planning and management • Providing diverse arenas for expression of popular youth culture and identity construction through sport, creative and other participation-oriented channels to ensure social change is shared, understood, and appreciated as part of the broader urban culture and identity of African cities. For example, the colloquial Swahili adopted by Tanzanian youth, especially in Dar es Salaam, should be drawn into the culture of the city rather than disparaged. Closing the generational gap
requires sociocultural bridging mechanisms, so that a broader dialogue ensues within cities about rights and identity • Developing youth citizenship is a necessary step in improving youth inclusion in African cities111 by increasing the membership of youth into grassroots, civil society organizations as well as facilitating their involvement in urban development planning and management. To foster youth inclusion in communities and urban society, prepare and implement policies which stimulate youth-oriented civil society mobilization as well as youth inclusion in public, private, and especially joint public-private development initiatives in cities • Stimulating youth involvement in urban agriculture, perhaps one of the most neglected opportunities in African cities, largely practised by the informal sector without the explicit support of city governments and the state. Despite their critical role in African urban food security, informal urban agriculturalists are mostly tolerated rather than supported. In this respect, the protection of valuable urban agricultural lands from encroachment is a linked challenge, one which requires a response to the broader challenges of unplanned informal settlement growth. Youth-driven protests that sparked the onset of the Arab Spring (see Box 1.5 and Chapter 2) in highly urbanized Northern Africa have the potential to move into south of Sahara, where similar youth bulges and unequal social conditions persist. Marginalization and exclusion of youth from broader society and opportunities within the urban socio-economic fabric threaten to bring about even more severe reactions in sub-Saharan Africa. The youth are pivotal to sociocultural and economic change in Africa. Direct and inclusive measures are necessary to harness this role to realize the most beneficial outcomes to society, including the manner in which the future of urban African societies unfolds. This has potential to contribute positively if guided appropriately. If not, the consequences for stability in African cities may be dire.
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