Box 1.2 (contd): Urbanization Levels versus Urban Population Growth: Understanding the Trends and Contributory Factors
increasingly contributing to “urbanization”. It appears to have been important in Ghana’s recent surge of urbanization although some large towns - like Kumasi, Tema and SekondiTakoradi - have clearly also attracted many migrants. In Kenya and Tanzania, complex issues with definitions have definitely led to overestimations of their urbanization levels. If either country included “occupational criteria”, as used in India, to distinguish
between small rural and urban settlements, they would “become” much less urbanized. Thus, the extent to which their people have shifted away from primarily agricultural occupations could be more realistically assessed. The significant improvements in GDP growth in so many countries recently may be generating stronger urbanization, particularly in towns influenced by the surge in mining and
energy investments. If so, it will be reflected in new censuses in due course. However, the true role of migration in urbanization, with its associated policy implications about patterns of economic opportunity, can only be understood when analyses are careful to evaluate the geographical variability occurring in urbanization within and between countries, and are careful to indicate how the process has fluctuated over time.
Compiled by Deborah Potts, Cities Research Group, King’s College London Sources: Beauchemin and Bocquier (2004); Bryceson and Potts. (eds) (2006); Bryceson.and Jønsson (2010); Jones and Corbridge (2010); Mezzini and Lindeboom (2008); Potts (2005); Potts (2010); Potts (2012a); Potts (2012b); Potts (2012c); Potts (2013); Satterthwaite (2003).24
Africa’s cities to cope with continued rapid growth will be in question given the ubiquitous weakness of urban institutional and infrastructural capacities. These constraints would be particularly acute for intermediate-sized and smaller cities. This is because, first, these are set to receive the vast majority of the total urban growth and, second, because they tend to lag further in urban institutional and capacity development than their larger counterparts. It is, therefore, likely that the urban slum proliferation, characteristic of so many large subSaharan African cities may also become a distinct feature of its intermediate-size and smaller ones, unless radically different urban-spatial, urban-economic, urban-social and urbanfunction development policies are implemented. As shown in Table 1.1, it is projected that by 2025 Africa’s ten largest cities will include three megacities: Lagos (18.9 million), Cairo (14.7 million) and Kinshasa (14.5 million). Dar es Salaam, Khartoum and Abidjan are likely to reach megacity status within a generation from now if current growth trends persist. Nairobi and Kano could also be moving in that direction. However, due to the manner in which megacities are defined, this does not entirely reflect the full picture of Africa’s largest urban population concentrations. As explained in the 2008 and 2010 issues of The State of African Cities report,27 new spatial urban configurations have emerged and continue to come about in Africa (as elsewhere in the world) through the increasing physical and functional interconnection of metropolitan cores and settlements in their proximity. As these two join, new continuous urban forms emerge. The spatial outcome of this first stage of continued urban development is usually referred to as the metropolitan area. In nations with high urbanization rates, further physical growth and functional interaction among metropolitan areas and their contiguous municipalities can lead to a next phase in the urban-spatial evolution. As metropolitan areas continue embracing towns and villages in their orbit, they create an urban system significantly larger than itself - the extended
THE STATE OF AFRICAN CITIES 2014
Although in absolute terms Asian cities still remain the world’s fastest growing, the global share of African urban dwellers is projected to rise from 11.3 per cent in 2010 to a 20.2 per cent by 2050 (see Figure 1.4). That is not surprising, since over a quarter of the 100 fastest-growing cities in the world are now in Africa which, by 2011, already hosted 52 cities exceeding one million inhabitants. Africa’s largest cities are not absorbing, and are not predicted to absorb, the bulk of current and future urban population growth. As indicated in The State of African Cities 2010 report, the “million+” cities typically absorb only some 25 per cent of countries’ urban growth, on average; intermediate-size and smaller cities attract the significant balance of about 75 per cent. Although recent data appear to indicate renewed growth strength among Africa’s million+ cities, the vast majority of the additional urban dwellers will continue to add to the intermediate and small cities. Consequently, the need for urban management, institution-building and system development is greatest in these city-size categories. Although Figure 1.3 shows that growth rates for Africa’s total and urban population are declining, these decelerating rates apply to ever larger national and urban populations. Therefore, in absolute terms, the increases in Africa’s total and urban populations will remain vast and will continue for decades. Since urban populations grow faster relative to total national ones, strong increases in urbanization levels of continental and of individual countries should be anticipated. More specifically, between 2010 and 2050, the number of Africa’s urban dwellers is projected to increase from 400 million to 1.26 billion.25 The Africa-wide urbanization level is projected to reach 50 per cent around 2035 and may rise further to almost 58 per cent by 205026 (see Figure 1.5), if “moderate” growth-rate projections materialize. It should be acknowledged, however, that actual growth may differ from the “moderate variant” projections and could either be higher or lower. Still, regardless of whether or not any lower growth scenario may materialize, the ability of
23