Box 1.1: Defining the African Middle Class
The African middle class has been broadly defined as those living on between USD 2 and USD 20 per day.11 Currently, however, around 60 per cent of the middle class survive on between USD 2 and USD 4 per day. They are referred to as the “floating class”. Their vulnerability to falling back into poverty due to slight changes in living costs is very high. The definition of lower and uppermiddle classes is those with daily per capita
consumption of USD 4 to USD 10 and USD 10 to USD 20 per day respectively.12 The emerging African middle class is projected to grow from 355 million to 1.1 billion by 2060, constituting more than 50 per cent of households.13 Over the past three decades (i.e. preceding 2010), this class grew by an average of 3.1 per cent (compared to a total average population growth of 2.6 per cent).14 The 60 per cent majority floating class
Africa to seek and embrace strategies that promote decoupling of its economies from over-reliance on natural resources that exacerbates the preponderance of under-diversified economies. The growth in green technologies signals the world’s emerging acknowledgement of global resource constraints and the need for low-carbon growth. Given Africa’s predicted population expansion, the continent’s role in resource efficiency and lowcarbon growth will need to be significant, and is also a critical precondition if sustainable and sustained economic growth is to be achieved.
CHAPTER ONE
The Technology and Infrastructure Transition
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African countries and cities are burdened by high infrastructure deficits and shortages in access to technologies and services. Poor transport infrastructures are responsible for 40 per cent of the logistics costs in coastal - and 60 per cent in landlocked countries. Road networks are particularly deficient, while rail systems are mostly poorly connected and maintained. Port cities require significant infrastructure upgrades, too. Low electrification persists, with 30 countries experiencing regular power shortages. To maintain their growth momentum, African national and urban economies will require higher levels of economic diversification and, as resource depletion unfolds, more sustainability.21 Such transformations demand careful and urgent reconsideration of all infrastructure and technology options available, including energy technologies, because present and future policy decisions shall lock African cities into investment patterns that will determine production and consumption levels for decades. Future competitiveness, productivity, consumption and sustainability are intimately linked to these technology and infrastructure decisions. This is particularly the case where large-scale infrastructures for commodity transport and population mobility are concerned. Africa’s railways are a prime example of the consequences of past decisions on long-term development. Due to its high upfront investment needs, railway development in Africa has stagnated in favour of road-based commodity transport because trucks require far lower upfront expenditures. Likewise with population movements, private vehicles and other road-based mobility options have often been favoured as
indicates a fragile, yet emerging, phenomenon that requires significant developmental support. The attention of global investors and multinational corporations in the African middle class may be optimistic and consolidating this class as a majority phenomenon, especially in drastically unequal urban contexts, will require significant efforts to ensure socio-political and economic stability, alongside ensuring growth in investment flows.
a way of shedding short-term costs implications for the public coffers. However, road-based logistics have many hidden and recurrent costs, varying from loss of life in road carnage to higher road maintenance requirements due to excessive loads. The choice against developing denser railway networks, whether heavy rail for commodity transport or light rail for public mobility, has brought a host of externalities and costs often not considered when infrastructure policy decisions are being made. Upfront expenditures of railway development may be high, but so are the longer-term benefits. The world’s changing market structures include new roles in global trade for emerging economies; anticipated continued volatility in commodity prices; and growth of African middle classes.22 Newly emerging green technologies should be considered by Africa and its cities, particularly in the large- and small-scale infrastructure policy choices that will be required to meet the growing consumption and spending power of the urban middle classes. Unless confronted and resolved, Africa’s current large infrastructure deficits23 are likely to affect future production capacities and lead to higher costs. Perhaps the most critical observation on the technological and infrastructure transition is that high-tech solutions do not automatically qualify as the best or most appropriate. Lowtech systems that are cheap and easy to maintain often connect better with local conditions and advantages. For example, Africa has plentiful biomass. Bio-digesters (which convert organic and sanitation waste into biogas and fertilizer) can play a critical role in ensuring decentralized energy resilience in locations that, for one reason or another, cannot be costeffectively served by centralized systems. However, this does not discount the parallel use of advanced high-technology options, such as solar panels, because the need for services can override cost considerations as shown, for instance, by mobile technologies in Africa. Finding solutions that fit local, contextual needs and embracing integration between design, planning, infrastructure and technology choices is essential.
The Urban Transition
Africa’s urban transition is proceeding rapidly (see Figure 1.3), with the accumulated relative growth rate of its cities now among the highest in the world (see also Box 1.2).