The Demographic Transition
The latest data provided by the Population Division of the United Nations1 reiterate that Africa is experiencing unprecedented population growth. Compared to previous assessments, the projected total population is higher than before, mainly due to new information obtained on fertility levels. In 15 high-fertility sub-Saharan countries, for example, the estimated average number of children per woman has recently been adjusted upwards by more than five per cent.2 The total African population is projected to nearly double from around one billion in 2010 to almost to two billion by 2040 and may well surpass three billion by 2070 (see Figure 1.1). These figures, however, are projections. They could change rapidly under unforeseen circumstances. Consequently, the farther into the future the less reliable projections tend to become. Moreover, there is no global agreement on Africa’s demographic forecasts and some researchers have challenged UNDESA’s data, as in the example of Western Africa (see Box 3.1 in Chapter 3). Therefore, demographic forecasts should be viewed with care. They are used in this report only for the broad policy guidance that can be derived from them with relative confidence. Whether or not the UNDESA projections materialize as predicted, their broad implication holds that Africa - after Asia now the world’s second most populated major region - is facing huge increases over the decades to come. Vast African population growth is a certainty; only the magnitude remains debatable. Africa’s population growth trends do not yet have a foreseeable peak after which numbers will stabilize or decline. Projections indicate that by 2030 Africa’s population will exceed that of Europe, South and North America combined. But Africa is a very large and a still comparatively sparsely populated continent. Therefore, policies towards more even geographical dispersal of future populations and livelihood opportunities shall be critical in the decades to come. The actual realization of such population distributions will depend on the rapidity of Africa’s infrastructure expansion to unlock sparsely-populated areas, and its ability to create livelihood opportunities in these locales. These matters should receive high priority, because population densities are expected to increase quickly. Forecasts for Africa indicate that average densities will increase from 34 to 79 persons per square kilometre between 2010 and 2050.3 The critical question is whether these increased densities will lead to further concentration of people in Africa’s already many large and very large urban areas or whether this growth will be dispersed over a broad range of geographically dispersed settlement-size groups. Policy changes will be required to guide Africa’s rising urbanization levels and the desirable dispersion of population. Current and future demographic structures are also to be taken into consideration, because the population will remain young for decades. The demographic dividend potential (a labour force that
THE STATE OF AFRICAN CITIES 2014
transitions with a growing number of democratically-elected governments. But the road to truly democratic governance systems often provides for a rough ride as in the cases of Egypt, Libya, South Sudan, Tunisia and Zimbabwe. Continued postindependence statehood-formation is part of the ongoing transformations, with some African countries making steady strides forward while others have greater difficulty in shedding the label of a “fragile” or “failed state”. The accelerating urban transition - the shift from rural to urban population majorities - is, perhaps, the most decisive phenomenon since independence in most African nations. That is especially the case for its tropical middle belt where most of Africa’s urban growth now appears to be taking place. Lagos, for instance, has recently joined the ranks of the world’s megacities - Africa’s second after Cairo - while Kinshasa is also rapidly approaching mega city status. Climate and associated environmental change brings multiple and multifaceted impacts to bear on Africa, whether predicted or already experienced. Many aspects of this transition are still not fully understood and uncertainties about their future impacts remain. What is clear, however, is that climate and environment change-related vulnerabilities are on the rise throughout Africa, with higher frequencies and greater severity of cataclysmic events. Not a single African nation, city or village is exempt from the growing vulnerability associated with climate and environmental change. Because of their intense concentration of population, assets and functions, urban areas are particularly at risk from calamitous events. Although these transitions obviously bring additional and new challenges, they should be interpreted as opportunities for deep review of African nations’ policies and strategies. Indeed, the time is ripe for a rethinking of past and present development trajectory choices and for exploring new visions, interventions and adaptations in response to changing contexts. A bold re-imagining of how Africa could best guide these transitions requires careful consideration of all the options. This report seeks to analyze the ongoing transitions, the associated challenges and the new opportunities they offer. It argues for entirely new policy development, suggests rethinking opportunities for integrated urban planning, infrastructure and technologies. The report also seeks to stimulate a review of the options for developing mediumand long-term strategies and the associated shorter-term interventions required at the local, national, regional and continental levels in response to the ongoing transformations. But every African region, nation, city and locality has its own specific contexts. Despite the consequential need for locationspecific and tailored interventions, one of the more important arguments in this report is that there is also increasing need for cooperation - between cities, between countries and between the African sub-regions. Outcomes will be strengthened if African cities and nations plan their sustainable development courses in conjunction with supportive regional and continental perspectives.
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