Eastern Africa’s informal urban areas will detach themselves even further from effective government control, and pass under the influence of local power structures that may come to constitute a threat to the centre of the city and, ultimately, the state itself. A variety of agents for change exist in Eastern African cities, among them the youth who are mobile and to a large degree self-organized within peer and other groups. Harnessing this huge existing potential for social change is the answer, because fighting it will reproduce the same oppressive and stagnant conditions that could lead to widespread, violent protests and all-out insurrections similar to that unfolding in the countries of Northern Africa and the Middle East. Their integration into formal and informal systems of governance, and the right to participate in constructing their own future is crucial to reversing the conditions to which the youth are currently subjected, and restricted by, in Eastern African urban society.
executive summary
Central Africa
12
Although Central Africa is rapidly urbanizing, the subregion is not expected to reach a region-wide urban majority until around 2030. The Central African Republic and Congo (DR) are expected to reach urban majorities just before 2040 and Equatorial Guinea at around 2045. With an estimated present day population of over 9 million, Kinshasa continues to dominate Central Africa as the sub-region’s largest and fastest growing urban system. Kinshasa is projected to become Africa’s third mega city before 2015. Most capital cities in the region function as hubs for complex international financial transactions as well as command posts for the management of multinational organizations. Mass investments in infrastructure building, in the service sector and in the tourism industry, have helped to lower the rate of unemployment in some of the sub-region’s cities. However, despite economic growth that many countries in the sub-region have noticed in the last few years, most urban economies in the sub-region have started to struggle as they depend heavily on the export of mining, especially the exploitation and export of copper, diamond, oil and timbers. Since the deepening of the global financial crisis, exports of copper have slowed down, as China and India have reduced their imports. Despite Central African mineral and oil wealth, the subregion still lacks adequate industry to process minerals and oils locally. Besides considering options to process more of the extractions in the sub-region, its governments need to consider economic diversification strategies to counter negative impacts of future oil price fluctuations. These strategies should be accompanied by improved systems for tax collection from multinational and international corporations that are exploiting the sub-region’s commodities. Globalization and new technologies have significantly changed the way cities and countries in Central Africa trade with the outside world, especially with countries in the West and the Far East, but trade within the sub-region remains low. This is not least due to lack of road and railway infrastructure
and points to the need for more regional integration. The climate of Central Africa is humid-tropical with distinct dry and rainy seasons. Historically, Africa has always faced a variable climate with extreme and severe weather events. It is, however, becoming increasingly clear that Central African cities are being impacted by increasing climate variability, for example floods, sea-level rise, saline water intrusion, heat waves and drought. Climate change is projected to induce agricultural losses, increasing the threat of food insecurity. Deforestation, too, is a major concern for all countries in the sub-region since they are losing large tracts of forest and tons of soil every year and experience declining biodiversity. Central African cities need to invest in establishing, implementing and entrenching green energy and green growth initiatives and policies. In addition to bounteous mineral resources, Central African countries are endowed with significant hydroelectric and solar power potential, as well as other possibilities to produce green energy that could boost development. Although Central Africa is generally rich in oil, minerals, water, forest and biodiversity, cities in the sub-region are characterized by deep poverty and inequality, corruption, as well as a high number of slums and informal settlements. Urban governance in Central Africa is beset by deep institutional failures, which are partly catalyzed by, and result in, informal land- and housing acquisition. Recent decentralization efforts have led to additional urban governance problems with municipal institutions not reaching the poor urban majorities due to inefficiency, over-bureaucratization, corruption and nepotistic practices that directly or indirectly give preference to the wealthy and politically connected. Municipalities are largely unable to collect revenues to finance their services. Private developers cater for the wealthy and lack of formal service provision renders the poor households particularly vulnerable to the increasing costs of water, energy, transport and food. Improving integrated urban service delivery should be key in planning for sustainable development. Urban culture and identity in Central African cities are characterized by religiosity, a significant youth bulge, circular urban-rural migration, and long histories of conflict. Ethnic segregation persists amidst the diversity in people, languages and cultures found in Central African cities. African youth possess discursive power that will likely significantly drive urban social, political and economic trends and dynamics in the future. However, there are few platforms where youth can voice their condition, desires and hopes in Central African cities. Amongst the urban poor, women are perhaps the most significant social actors alongside the youth, yet support for the advancement of women in society is limited. Changing attitudes towards youth and gender interactions, sexual relations and HIV, matrimonial relationships, female education and employment, requires that men become a part of the process of social change in Central African cities. Living conditions in Central African cities have been deteriorating for many years. Increased urban poverty in the region has economic, social and institutional dimensions