2. General Trends Controlling Transport Growth and Demand
It must be noted that decarbonisation targets have already been set in some areas. For example, the EU Roadmap 2050 specifies an 80 per cent GHG emissions reduction target by 2050. Simulation of alternative EU decarbonisation pathways under technological limitations and climate policy delays (Capros et al., 2014) has shown that (a) the EU emissions reduction target is feasible within currently known technological options and at low cost (lower than 1 per cent of GDP in the period 2015–2050) and (b) delay on emission reduction action until 2030 will have significant adverse effects on energy system costs. Decoupling carbon emissions from transport activities is urgent. It could be driven by, for example, alternative transportation options in urban areas. However, a key uncertainty is the effectiveness of future policies on shaping transportation demand – the effectiveness of policies that promote novel energy-efficiency technologies and their timely uptake, the introduction of alternative-fuel vehicles and more efficient land-use planning. Finally, the sustainability of the transportation sector will also depend on its ability to adapt to the projected climatic changes and its resilience to climatic extremes (UNECE, 2013). It must be noted that climate change and energy security are two of the key global policy issues of our time. At the same time, although the transportation sector is a substantial energy consumer, about 55 per cent of the total liquid fuel consumption (EIA, 2013), it is also the sector which has achieved considerable emission reductions. Nonetheless, substantial further progress in warranted in the future. Action will be required at all levels of governance, from international to local, on behalf of the regulator, as well as of businesses and users.
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