Transport for Sustainable Development – The case of Inland Transport
According to recent projections (EIA, 2013), non-OECD transportation energy use will grow by 2.2 per cent annually in the period 2010–2040. China will lead the projected global growth in the demand for transportation fuels, which is projected to more than triple its consumption from 8 in 2010 to 26 quadrillion Btu22 in 2040, an energy consumption that will be similar to that of the United States of America (EIA, 2013). The projected growth in energy demand in the sector will require an increased uptake of renewable energy based fuels and innovative solutions for their competitive application. A recent study (Gujba et al., 2013) on the life cycle impacts and costs of the passenger transport sector in Nigeria for 2003–2030 has found that in a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, the life cycle environmental impacts will double, despite a projected 35 per cent increase in fuel/vehicle efficiency; at the same time, fuel costs at the sectorial level will increase threefold, from US$ 3.4 billion/year in 2003 to US$ 9.7 billion/year in 2030. Increasing the use of public transport (buses) could reduce environmental impacts by 15–20 per cent and fuel costs by 25–30 per cent relative to the BAU scenario, whereas high economic growth with increased car ownership/private motorization and decline of public transport would increase environmental impacts and fuel costs by 16 and 26 per cent, respectively. Figure 2.15 Projected global trends in transportation energy consumption in OECD and non-OECD countries, 2010–2040 (in quadrillion Btu)
100 OECD
non-OECD
80
60
40
20
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, 2013
High oil prices, together with the 2008–2009 financial crisis, had a more profound impact on OECD economies than on non-OECD economies. Energy use for transportation in OECD countries declined by 2 per cent in 2008, followed by a further decrease of 3.1 per cent in 2009, before recovering in 2010 (about 0.8 per cent growth). Slower economic and population growths are likely to drive a slow growth in OECD transportation energy demand in the short to mid-term future. In addition, demand for transportation fuels in OECD countries will be constrained by policies aimed at strong energy efficiency improvements in the transportation sector. Recent studies suggest that in the period 2010–2040, transportation energy use in OECD countries will decline by an average of 0.1 per cent annually. Whereas, at the global level, transportation energy use is projected to increase by 1.1 per cent annually, driven by the high transportation growth projected for non-OECD countries—in these countries, transportation energy use will increase by about 2.3 per cent per year (EIA, 2013). 22 One quadrillion (1 x 1015) Btu (British thermal units) is equivalent to about 180,136,000 boe (barrels of oil equivalent)
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