Transport for Sustainable Development – The case of Inland Transport
The above changes may severely impact transport infrastructure, hubs and services. Coastal flooding will have significant impacts on coastal transport infrastructures, by rendering them unusable for the duration of the flood and significantly damaging terminals, intermodal facilities, freight villages, cargo, storage areas and energy infrastructure (Brown et al., 2014) and, thus, disrupting intermodal supply chains and transport connectivity for longer periods. Ports, which form key-nodes in international transport networks by linking international supply-chains, will be particularly affected, due mostly to the long life nature of their key infrastructure, their exposed coastal and/ or estuarine location, and their dependence on trade, shipping and inland transport that are also vulnerable to climate change (Becker et al., 2013). Precipitation changes may result in changes to the movement of water courses, which in turn, affect roadways, railways, and rail and coach terminals. Direct damages during the event are probable, necessitating emergency responses and affecting the structural integrity and maintenance of roads, rail lines, bridges, tunnels, drainage systems, telecommunication and traffic management systems. Increases in the number of heavy precipitation events and floods will cause more accidents due to vehicle, road and rail track damage and poor visibility as well as delays and traffic disruptions. Inland waterways can suffer navigation suspensions, silting, changes in river morphology and damages of banks and flood protection systems. Extreme winds can damage coastal and estuarine railways, destroy agricultural crops and stress industrial facilities and, thus, indirectly affect the transport industry, damage road and railway infrastructure (through e.g. wind-generated debris) and strain road and rail operations. Heat waves may also have substantial impacts on transport infrastructure and services, by stressing water supplies and food storage and energy systems, damaging roads, deforming rail tracks and damaging track foundations as well as by causing lengthy delays through speed restrictions (UNECE, 2013). One of the major causes of the observed climatic changes is considered to be the increasing atmospheric concentrations of GreenHouse Gases (GHG), e.g. water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), which absorb heat reflected back from the Earth’s surface and, thus, increase the Earth’s heat storage (IPCC, 2013). Since the industrial revolution, atmospheric concentrations of the GHGs have been steadily increasing—higher now than they have been for some million years. For example, in early May 2013, CO2 concentration surpassed the 400 ppm (parts per million) milestone for the first time since, probably, the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.3 to 3.0 million years before the present era) (IPCC, 2013). Climatic changes can be amplified by reinforcing feedbacks—climate change-driven processes that can induce further global warming. For example, previously inert carbon reservoirs (e.g. the tropical peatlands and the vast CH4 stores of the Arctic permafrost) can be mobilized by increasing temperatures and release more CO2 and/or CH4 into the atmosphere. The rapid reduction in the spatial coverage of Arctic Ocean ice, particularly during summer, may also affect climate since sea ice reflects most of the incoming sun radiation back into the atmosphere in contrast to sea water; an ice-free Arctic Ocean will absorb more sun radiation, reinforce global warming and increase ‘tipping’ risks (Lenton et al., 2008; SREX, 2012; IPCC, 2013; Lenton, 2013). The transport sector is one of the major contributors of CO2 emissions as well as a major energy consumer. Therefore, in order to assess transport sector sustainability, it is necessary to assess its trends and projections concerning carbon emissions and energy use.
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