2. General Trends Controlling Transport Growth and Demand
expected to perpetuate in the future decades, with the urban populations being projected to constitute more than 65 per cent of the total population by 2050.
10'000 9'000
70%
Global population
8'000 Millions of persons˜
80%
Global rural population
60%
Share of urban population (secondary axis)
7'000 6'000
50%
5'000
40%
4'000
30%
3'000
20%
2'000
10%
1'000 2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
0%
Percentage share of global urban population
Figure 2.10 Urbanisation trends and projections, 1950–2050
Source: DESA, 2013
Considerable regional diversity exists in the patterns, level and pace of urbanization. For example, Latin America and the Caribbean regions are highly urbanized, whereas least developed countries and land-locked developing countries are still predominantly agricultural, although they will also probably experience accelerating urbanization in the coming decades (DESA, 2013). On average, nearly 80 per cent of the population in developed regions resides in urban centres, whereas the average share of urban populations in parts of Asia and Africa is less than 50 per cent (Grübler and Buettner, 2013). Nevertheless, it is Asia and Africa that will host nine out of ten of the most populous urban agglomerations in 2030, six of which will be in China and South Asia. Projections (DESA, 2014) indicate that the list of ten largest urban agglomerations will continue to be dominated by cities of the UNESCAP region in 2030 (table 2.2). These projections also indicate that for the first time in modern history no European or American cities will be amongst the ten most populous in the world.
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