Transport for Sustainable Development – The case of Inland Transport
Figure 2.9
Change in the proportion of elderly (over 65 years old) population in UNECE member States, I1990–2013
Germany Italy Greece Sweden Bulgaria Finland Portugal Latvia Austria Croatia Estonia Belgium Denmark France Spain Switzerland United Kingdom Slovenia Hungary Netherlands Czech Republic Malta Norway Lithuania Bosnia and… Canada
Romania Ukraine Poland Georgia Serbia Luxembourg United States Belarus Montenegro Russian… Slovak Republic Iceland Macedonia, FYR Cyprus Ireland Moldova Albania Israel Armenia Turkey Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Uzbekistan Kyrgyz Republic Turkmenistan Tajikistan 0%
5%
2013
10%
15%
20%
1993
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2013
1993
Source: World Bank 19
In other parts of the world (e.g. East Asia, Latin America), population ageing (and, possibly, population decreases) are also projected to occur if the current trends (Figure 2.8) continue. Urbanization has also altered (and will continue to alter) the global demography in an unprecedented manner. These trends are likely to significantly affect inland transport and its sustainability. Growth in the over 65 years of age population is exceeding the total population growth rate on all continents, as much as by a factor of three in Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Such changes in the population age distributions must be carefully considered when designing future transport systems; elderly people are likely to have particular needs, which must be accommodated. Global population may grow by more than 2 billion by 2050, with the growth concentrated in urban areas (Figure 2.10). Urbanization, a direct effect of modernization and industrialization, allows individuals and corporations to take advantage of the opportunities offered by proximity, diversity, and market place competition, altering, at the same time, the socio-economic and environmental character of the growing cities and surrounding areas. Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, the number of people living in urban centres has grown to exceed the number of people living in rural areas and this trend is 19
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS
20