2. General Trends Controlling Transport Growth and Demand
Population ageing, which presently takes place in many regions (Figure 2.8), is likely to increase in the future decades due to reductions in new births and the lengthening of life expectancy, particularly in China, Western Europe, Canada and Latin America. In comparison, certain parts of Africa and central Asia are likely to experience opposing trends. The number of people per household is also projected to decline in many areas due to living arrangement shifts towards nuclear families. Figure 2.8
Changes in population older than 65 years of age during the period 2003–2013 (Percentage)
0°0’00’’
45°0’00’’E
Change (%) in Population Older than 65 years old (2003-2013)
No Data
<0
0-5
5 - 15
15 - 30
>30
Source: World Bank
It appears that several regions have entered critical phases of demographic evolution. In Western European countries, populations have been ageing since the beginning of the twenty-first century, driven by low fertility/birth rates over the previous three decades. The effects of this ageing are likely to increase over time, if fertility remains at low levels and without offsets from immigration or rising life expectancy (Lutz et al., 2003). Figure 2.9 shows the changes in the proportion of the population older than 65 years in UNECE countries during the 1993–2013 period. The proportion of elderly populations have increased in 50 of the 52 UNECE member States (for which data are available), with nineteen member States showing increases greater than 30 per cent, a further four greater than 50 per cent, Bosnia and Herzegovina by more than 100 per cent, while only Kyrgyzstan, Norway and Tajikistan showed an actual proportion decrease compared to 1993 rates. In absolute terms, the over 65 population increased by 31 per cent in the UNECE region between 1993 and 2013 (and is 15 per cent of total).
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