GPS 2022 Annual Review

Geospatial and Population Studies

Robert Rhatigan Director

Fiscal Year 2022 Annual Review of Category 3 Research Centers/Institutes | February 8, 2023

Mission

Geospatial and Population Studies supplies trustworthy information that serves communities and government agencies; offers cutting-edge technology and research methods; and provides a fertile training ground at UNM for a new generation of applied researchers and decision makers.

FY 2022 Goals and Status

Goal 1: Evaluate New Mexico’s 2020 Census count to identify potential undercounts and other errors.

Status: Partially Completed GPS has determined that the statewide count is highly accurate according to all key measures. Extensive delays by the Census Bureau in releasing more detailed data has extended timeline for completing this evaluation.

Goal 2: Complete annual population estimates production and methodology evaluation.

Status: Partially Completed GPS successfully completed production of 2021 population estimates despite unforeseen challenges. Methodology research will continue as the Census Bureau releases more detailed data from the 2020 Census.

Goal 3: Streamline production of annual crash statistics database and reporting.

Status: Complete Annual crash reports were published earlier then ever due to significant process improvements including greater automation of data quality checks and greater automation of report generation.

Membership of Advisory Committee

• Membership List

• Renia Ehrenfeucht, Professor, UNM School of Architecture and Planning

• Gabriel Sanchez, Professor, UNM Department of Political Science

• Allan Oliver, Executive Director, Thornburg Foundation

• David Swanson, Professor Emeritus, University of Washington

• Amy Ballard, Dean of Skilled Trades & Arts, Central New Mexico Community College

The GPS advisory committee did not meet in FY22 though individual members were consulted on several occasions.

FY 2022 Highlights

• New Mexico’s statewide population count in the 2020 Census was accurate according to all key measures. This is a significant accomplishment given GPS’s prominent role in state census operations.

• Jacqueline Miller was elected as chair of the Federal State Cooperative for Population Projections and Robert Rhatigan was re-elected to the Steering Committee of the Federal State Cooperative for Population Estimates.

• Participated in a National Academies of Science Committee on National Statistics working group for 2020 Census data quality.

• Piloted an opioid epidemic spatial dashboard for the NM Department of Health that allows users to view areas of concern.

• Executed a three-year renewal of our small area-population estimates contract with the New Mexico Department of Health.

• Collaborated with the UNM Center for Healthcare Equity in Kidney Disease on the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study funded by the National Institutes for Health

• Completed traffic crash data entry in just 2.5 months after a 4-month delay in contract renewal.

• Successfully integrated an updated version of the New Mexico Uniform Crash report into our workflows and began collection of new federally-recommended crash data elements.

Research Expenditures and F&A (last 5 fiscal years)

Research Center Impacts

Resources provided for the campus

• Provides data and consultation to students and faculty conducting population research.

• Provides employment experience and training for students on GIS, database management, programming, and applied demography.

• Offers guest lectures on demography and census topics.

Resource for the state/region

• Sole provider of crash data analysis for the NM Dept. of Transportation, the state legislature, the Highway Safety Plan, and other stakeholders.

• Provides state and county population projections by age and sex.

• Provides small-area population estimates by age, sex, race/ethnicity used by NMDOT and other agencies.

• Serves as New Mexico’s liaison to the US Census Bureau Population Division.

• Provides expert opinion and analysis demographic issues.

• Advises state and local governments on census programs and data.

Return on Investment

• Provided practical training and employment for 10 undergraduate students and 2 graduate students.

• Delivered on five contracts generating over $1.2M in revenue and bringing in ~$310,000 in F&A.

• Publications and Presentations

• 85 Reports

• 2020 New Mexico Small-Area Population Estimates

• NM Traffic Crash Annual Report, 2020.

• NM DWI Report, 2020.

• Community crash reports for all 33 counties and over 50 municipalities in the state.

• GPS staff made 8 conference presentations plus a presentation to NM Legislative Finance Committee staff, and 2 presentations to government agencies.

• GPS was referenced in numerous press outlets around New Mexico including the ABQ Journal, KUNM, Las Cruces Sun-News, Los Alamos Daily Post, Rio Grande Sun and was quoted in a Governor’s press release related to the 2020 Census count.

• Sustainable, recurring funding streams.

• Disparate backgrounds and expertise of staff members.

• Long-term records of crash data and population data.

• Recognized expert on New Mexico’s demographics.

• Experienced working with multiple state agencies and private entities.

• Only entity in state that produces state and county population projections by age and sex.

• Collaborate with other departments to offer courses in traffic safety and demographics.

• Develop interactive mapping and data display of demographic and traffic crash data.

• With quality of 2020 Census data in question there could be increased importance of alternative demographic data sources.

• Leverage recognition from active role in New Mexico’s 2020 Census activities into additional contracts with state government and other partnerships

• Pursue more applied research using Traffic and Criminal Software (TraCS).

• Develop applications using artificial intelligence.

• Lack of name and brand recognition.

• Almost all of GPS revenue comes from the same source; the State of New Mexico.

• Contract limitations on publishing restricts ability to broaden our research.

• Lack of funding for peer-reviewed research.

• Slow reaction time from state agencies to finalize contracts.

• Compensation doesn’t keep pace with inflation, while a competitive job market increases competition that could lead to turnover in key positions.

• UNM IT costs are increasing, but service quality and timeliness are decreasing.

• Existence of departmental silos restricts collaborative research across UNM.

• Negative perception of applied research.

WEAKNESSES STRENGTHS OPPORTUNITIES

THREATS

Looking Ahead to Fiscal Year 2023

• Renewal of 4-year, $2.5 million data analysis contract with the New Mexico Department of Transportation.

• Further automation and process improvements within our Traffic Research Unit.

• Continue evaluation of 2020 Census data and possible count challenges on behalf of state and local governments.

• Production of 2010-2020 inter-censal estimates and evaluation of methods.

• Recruiting and on-boarding one new staff position and one back-filling position.

• Collaboration with the UNM Prevention Research Center on Home Visit Solve research funded by Health Resources and Services Administration.

Summary

• GPS is well positioned for the future after carving out niche areas of research conducted on behalf of the State of New Mexico.

• GPS maintains stable sources of recurring revenue and long-term staff retention in key positions.

• The 2020 Census count is complete with GPS playing a critical role on behalf of New Mexico though GPS will continue to play an important role in data evaluation and advocacy at the federal level.

• GPS continues to expand its reach through new collaborations with UNM HSC and state government related to Opioid Use (FY22), and Chronic Kidney Disease (FY22) and home visiting programs (FY23).

• GPS recently executed a four-year $2.5 million renewal of our crash data analysis contract further cementing a decades-long partnership with the New Mexico Department of Transportation.