Uniwersytet Śląski dla klimatu / University of Silesia for climate

8QLZHUV\WHW ĶOà VNL GOD NOLPDWX

8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD IRU FOLPDWH

8QLZHUV\WHW ĶOà VNL MHVW QDMZLôNV]à XF]HOQLà Z ZRMHZÃŽG]WZLH Ä·Oà VNLP s G\QDPLF]QLH UR]ZLMD VLô L RGG]LDÄ&#x;XMH QD RWRF]HQLH VSRÄ&#x;HF]QR JRVSRGDUF]H 3UDFRZQLF\ VWXGHQFL L DEVROZHQFL RVLà JDMà VXNFHV\ QDXNRZH QD V]F]HEOX UHJLRQDOQ\P RJÃŽOQRSROVNLP L PLôG]\ QDURGRZ\P

8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH LV WKH ODUJHVW KLJKHU HGXFDWLRQ LQVWLWXWLRQ LQ WKH 6LOHVLDQ 3URYLQFH s LW GHYHORSV G\QDPLFDOO\ DQG LQƮXHQFHV WKH VRFLDO DQG HFRQRPLF HQYLURQPHQW ,WV HPSOR\HHV VWXGHQWV DQG JUDGXDWHV DFKLHYH VFLHQWLƬF VXFFHHG LQ VFLHQFH DW UHJLRQDO QDWLRQDO DQG LQWHUQDWLRQDO OHYHO %HLQJ DZDUH RI WKH RQJRLQJ FKDQJHV WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ LV PRGHUQLVLQJ LWV OD ERUDWRULHV LQWHQVLI\LQJ LQWHUQDWLRQDO UHODWLRQV DQG LQFUHDVLQJ PRELOLW\ RI UHVHDUFKHUV DQG VWXGHQWV :H EHOLHYH WKDW WKDQNV WR RXU UHVHDUFK DFWLYLW\ ZH FDQ KDYH D UHDO LQƮXHQFH RQ WKH HQYLURQPHQW DQG SURYLGH WRROV XVHIXO LQ VROYLQJ SUREOHPV RI WKH PR GHUQ ZRUOG :H ZRXOG OLNH WR SUHVHQW D VHOHFWLRQ RI UHVHDUFK SURMHFWV RI VFLHQWLVWV IURP 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH ZKR GHDO ZLWK LVVXHV UHODWHG WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH

ĶZLDGRP\ ]DFKRG]à F\FK ]PLDQ 8QLZHUV\WHW XQRZRF]HÄ·QLD ED]ô ODER UDWRU\MQà LQWHQV\ƬNXMH NRQWDNW\ PLô G]\QDURGRZH RUD] ]ZLôNV]D PRELOQRķâ EDGDF]\ L VWXGHQWÃŽZ :LHU]\P\ Å•H SRSU]H] SURZDG]RQH EDGDQLD QDXNRZH PRÅ•HP\ PLHâ UHDOQ\ ZSÄ&#x;\Z QD RWRF]HQLH L GRVWDUF]Dâ QD U]ôG]LD SRPDJDMà FH Z UR]ZLà ]\ZDQLX SUREOHPÃŽZ ZVSÃŽÄ&#x;F]HVQHJR Ä·ZLDWD 3U]HGVWDZLDP\ Z\EÃŽU SURMHNWÃŽZ EDGDZF]\FK QDXNRZFÃŽZ 8QLZHUV\ WHWX ĶOà VNLHJR NWÃŽU]\ Z VZHM SUDF\ SRGHMPXMà ]DJDGQLHQLD ]ZLà ]DQH ]H ]PLDQDPL NOLPDWX

6SLV SURMHNWÃŽZ Contents

4

:LGPR QLHOXG]NRÄ·FL $QWURSRFHQ MDNR HSRND LQZROXFML F]Ä&#x;RZLHND 6SHFWUH RI LQKXPDQLW\ 7KH $QWKURSRFHQH DV DQ HSRFK RI KXPDQ LQYROXWLRQ GU KDE 'REURVÄ&#x;DZD :ôŕRZLF] =LÃŽÄ&#x;NRZVND

8

:V]\VWNR R ]PLDQDFK NOLPDWX NU\]\VLH NOLPDW\F]Q\P $OO DERXW FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG FOLPDWH FULVLV SURI GU KDE 3LRWU 6NXEDÄ&#x;D

10

1RZRF]HVQD HGXNDFMD R SU]HFLZG]LDÄ&#x;DQLX ]DJURÅ•HQLRP Ä·URGR ZLVNRZ\P s *HR5,6.6 0RGHUQ HGXFDWLRQ DERXW FRXQWHUDFWLQJ HQYLURQPHQWDO KD]DUGV s *HR5,6.6 SURI GU KDE ,UHQHXV] 0DOLN

11

6SRÄ&#x;HF]HÄ¡VWZR SURVXPHQFNLH s SURVXPHQFND HQHUJHW\ND 3526

3URVXPHU VRFLHW\ s SURVXPHU SRZHU HQJLQHHULQJ 3526

GU KDE (G\WD 6LHUND

12

8WZRU]HQLH SURJUDPX VWXGLÃŽZ HNRORJLD NXOWXURZD /DXQFKLQJ RI D VWXG\ SURJUDPPH LQ &XOWXUDO (FRORJ\ GU 0DJGDOHQD 6]DOERW

14

1LH ŕà GOô ]DS\ODP , GRQoW VWLQJ , SROOLQDWH GU KDE $JQLHV]ND %DEF]\ġVND

15

5HNRQVWUXNFMD ZDUXQNÃŽZ NOLPDW\F]Q\FK *ÃŽUQHJR ĶOà VND Z RVWDWQLFK VWXOHFLDFK QD SRGVWDZLH GUHZQD KLVWRU\F]QHJR 5HFRQVWUXFWLRQ RI WKH FOLPDWLF FRQGLWLRQV LQ WKH 8SSHU 6LOHVLD GXULQJ WKH ODVW FHQWXULHV EDVHG RQ KLVWRULFDO ZRRG GU 0DJGDOHQD 2SDÄ&#x;D 2ZF]DUHN

16

2FHQD ]DOHÅ•QRÄ·FL SRPLôG]\ IXQNFMRQDOQà UÃŽÅ•QRURGQRÄ·FLà URÄ·OLQ VWUXNWXUà ]HVSRÄ&#x;ÃŽZ PLNURRUJDQL]PÃŽZ L ELODQVHP ZôJOD Z F]DVLH VSRQWDQLF]QHM VXNFHVML QD WHUHQDFK SRSU]HP\VÄ&#x;RZ\FK ] Z\NRU]\ VWDQLHP DQDOL] PHWDWUDQVNU\SWRPLF]Q\FK $VVHVVPHQW RI WKH LQWHUGHSHQGHQFLHV EHWZHHQ WKH IXQFWLRQDO ELRGLYHUVLW\ RI SODQWV WKH VWUXFWXUH RI PLFURRUJDQLVP FRPPXQLWLHV DQG WKH FDUERQ EDODQFH GXULQJ VSRQWDQHRXV VXFFHVVLRQ LQ IRUPHU LQGXVWULDO DUHDV XVLQJ PHWDWUDQVFULSWRPLF PHWKRGV SURI ]Z GU KDE =RƬ D 3LRWURZVND 6HJHW

18

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

*HQRPLND WUDQVODF\MQD Z LGHQW\Ƭ NDFML PHFKDQL]PX G]LDğDQLD VLJQDORVRPX &%3 Z RGSRZLHG]L $UDELGRSVLV L MôF]PLHQLD QD VWUHV VXV]\ 7UDQVODWLRQDO JHQRPLFV LQ LGHQWLI\LQJ WKH RSHUDWLQJ PHFKD QLVP EHKLQG WKH &%3 VLJQDORVRPH LQ WKH UHVSRQVH RI $UDELGRSVLV DQG EDUOH\ WR WKH GURXJKW VWUHVV GU $JDWD 'DV]NRZVND *ROHF

19

:\NRU]\VWDQLH PLNURRUJDQL]PÎZ MDNR PDUNHUÎZ ]PLDQ WHPSD WRSQLHQLD ORGRZFÎZ QD 6SLWVEHUJHQLH 7KH XVH RI PLFURRUJDQLVPV DV PDUNHUV RI WKH YDULDELOLW\ LQ WKH JODFLDO PHOWLQJ UDWH RQ 6SLWVEHUJHQ GU 6ğDZRPLU 6XğRZLF]

20

8/.$ s 8QLZHUV\WHFNLH /DERUDWRULD .RQWUROL $WPRVIHU\ 8/.$ s 8QLYHUVLW\ /DERUDWRULHV IRU $WPRVSKHUH &RQWURO GU KDE 0DULROD -DEğRġVND

22

:Sğ\Z LQZHUVML WHPSHUDWXU\ Z ZDUVWZLH JUDQLF]QHM DWPRVIHU\ QD ]DQLHF]\V]F]HQLH SRZLHWU]D ,QƮ XHQFH RI WHPSHUDWXUô LQYHUVLRQ LQ WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU RI WKH DWPRVSKHUH RQ DLU SROOXWLRQ SURI ]Z GU KDE 7DGHXV] 1LHGœZLHGœ

23

5HDNFMD RSDGÎZ ķQLHJX L GHV]F]X QD ZVSÎğF]HVQH ]PLDQ\ NOLPDWX L F\UNXODFMô DWPRVIHU\ Z (XURSLH 7KH UHDFWLRQ RI VQRZ DQG UDLQ SUHFLSLWDWLRQ WR FRQWHPSRUDU\ FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG DWPRVSKHULF FLUFXODWLRQ LQ (XURSH GU KDE SURI 8Ķ (ZD ĞXSLNDV]D

24

:Sğ\Z ZDUXQNÎZ PHWHRURORJLF]Q\FK QD ]PLHQQRķâ Z\VWôSRZDQLD DOHUJHQQHJR S\ğNX Z\EUDQ\FK URķOLQ Z 6RVQRZFX s

7KH Hƪ HFW RI PHWHRURORJLFDO FRQGLWLRQV RQ WKH YDULDELOLW\ RI RFFXUUHQFH RI DOOHUJHQLF SROOHQV IURP VHOHFWHG SODQWV LQ 6RVQRZLHF s

GU .DWDU]\QD 'àEURZVND =DSDUW

26

3RUÎZQDQLH ]PLHQQRķFL ZDUXQNÎZ WHUPLF]Q\FK Z RVWDWQLP W\VLàF OHFLX Z JÎUDFK $]ML ĶURGNRZHM L (XURS\ ĶURGNRZHM &RPSDULVRQ RI YDULDELOLW\ LQ WKHUPDO FRQGLWLRQV LQ WKH ODVW PLOOHQQLXP LQ WKH PRXQWDLQV RI &HQWUDO $VLD DQG &HQWUDO (XURSH SURI ]Z GU KDE 7DGHXV] 1LHGœZLHGœ

27

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/ß6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

5

6

2FHQD LORÄ·FL L VNÄ&#x;DGX FKHPLF]QHJR ]DQLHF]\V]F]HÄ¡ HPLWRZDQ\FK SRGF]DV SURFHVÃ&#x17D;Z VDPR]DJU]HZDQLD VLô RGSDGÃ&#x17D;Z ZôJORZ\FK V\PXORZDQ\FK SLUROL]à ZRGQà L EH]ZRGQà RUD] Z\VRNRWHPSHUD WXURZ\P XWOHQLDQLHP $VVHVVPHQW RI WKH TXDQWLW\ DQG FKHPLFDO FRPSRVLWLRQ RI SROOXWDQWV HPLWWHG GXULQJ WKH VHOI KHDWLQJ RI FRDO ZDVWH VLPXODWHG E\ K\GURXV DQG QRQ K\GURXV S\URO\VLV DV ZHOO DV E\ KLJK WHPSHUDWXUH R[\JHQDWLRQ GU KDE 0RQLND )DELDÄ¡VND

28

:SÄ&#x;\Z SRÅ&#x2022;DUÃ&#x17D;Z NRSDOQ\FK QD VNÄ&#x;DG JHRFKHPLF]Q\ L PLQHUDOQ\ VNDÄ&#x; ZôJORQRÄ·Q\FK Z F]ôķFL *Ã&#x17D;UQRÄ·Oà VNLHJR =DJÄ&#x;ôELD :ôJORZHJR ,QÆ® XHQFH RI IRVVLO Ƭ UHV RQ WKH JHRFKHPLFDO DQG PLQHUDO FRPSRVL WLRQ RI FDUERQLIHURXV URFNV LQ SDUW RI WKH 8SSHU 6LOHVLDQ &RDO %DVLQ GU KDE -XVW\QD &LHVLHOF]XN

30

&/,0$5. s 7RZDUGV DQ ,QWHJUDWHG )UDPHZRUN IRU &OLPDWH &KDQJH ,PSDFW $VVHVVPHQWV IRU ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 0DUNHW 6\VWHPV ZLWK /RQJ 7HUP ,QYHVWPHQWV SURI ]Z GU KDE 7DGHXV] 1LHGÅ&#x201C;ZLHGÅ&#x201C;

32

3RWHQFMDÄ&#x; ]ELRUQLNÃ&#x17D;Z ZRGQ\FK NRQXUEDFML Ä·Oà VNR Gà EURZVNLHM Z Ä&#x;DJRG]HQLX VNXWNÃ&#x17D;Z ]PLDQ NOLPDWX 7KH SRWHQWLDO RI ZDWHU UHVHUYRLUV RI WKH 6LOHVLDQ 'à EURZD FRQXUEDWLRQ LQ DOOHYLDWLQJ WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH ĶOà VNLH &HQWUXP :RG\ NLHURZQLN SURMHNWX GU $QGU]HM :RÅ&#x201C;QLFD

34

)/25,67 s )ORRG ULVN RQ WKH QRUWKHUQ IRRWKLOOV RI WKH 7DWUD 0RXQ WDLQV SURI ]Z GU KDE 7DGHXV] 1LHGÅ&#x201C;ZLHGÅ&#x201C;

35

1RZH QDU]ôG]LH GR Z\NU\ZDQLD DNW\ZQ\FK VWRNÃ&#x17D;Z RVXZLVNRZ\FK SRGVWDZà GR UDFMRQDOQHJR SODQRZDQLD SU]HVWU]HQQHJR Z REV]D UDFK JÃ&#x17D;UVNLFK $ QHZ WRRO IRU GHWHFWLQJ DFWLYH ODQGVOLGH VORSHV DV WKH EDVLV IRU UDWLRQDO VSDWLDO SODQQLQJ LQ PRXQWDLQ DUHDV SURI GU KDE ,UHQHXV] 0DOLN

36

2NUHÄ·OHQLH SU]HELHJX HZROXFML VWRNÃ&#x17D;Z SRÄ&#x;XGQLRZHJR 6SLWVEHUJHQX QD WOH ]PLDQ NOLPDWX 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ RI WKH FRXUVH RI HYROXWLRQ RI VRXWKHUQ 6SLWVEHUJHQ VORSHV DJDLQVW D EDFNJURXQG RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH PJU .U]\V]WRI 6HQGHUDN

38

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

$:$.( s $UFWLF &OLPDWH DQG (QYLURQPHQW RI WKH 1RUGLF 6HDV DQG WKH 6YDOEDUG *UHHQODQG $UHD SURI ]Z GU KDE -DFHN -DQLD

40

$:$.( s $UFWLF &OLPDWH V\VWHP VWXG\ RI RFHDQ VHD LFH DQG JODFLHU LQWHUDFWLRQ LQ 6YDOEDUG DUHD ZLWK IRFXV RQ +RUVXQG GU KDE 0DULXV] *UDELHF

41

,FH VHD s V]DFRZDQLH ZSÄ&#x;\ZX ]PLDQ ORGRZFÃ&#x17D;Z NRQW\QHQWDOQ\FK QD Z]URVW SR]LRPX PRU]D ,FH VHD s (VWLPDWLRQ RI WKH LPSDFW RI FKDQJHV RI &RQWLQHQWDO JODFLHUV RQ WKH ULVH LQ VHD OHYHO SURI ]Z GU KDE -DFHN -DQLD

42

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

7

:LGPR QLHOXG]NRÄ·FL $QWUR SRFHQ MDNR HSRND LQZROXFML F]Ä&#x;RZLHND

6SHFWUH RI LQKXPDQLW\ 7KH $QWKURSRFHQH DV DQ HSRFK RI KXPDQ LQYROXWLRQ

1LV]F]\FLHOVNL ZSÄ&#x;\Z ZVSÃ&#x17D;Ä&#x;F]HÄ·QLH Å&#x2022;\Mà FHJR F]Ä&#x;RZLHND Homo sapiens sapiens QD QDV]à SODQHWô VSUDZLÄ&#x; Å&#x2022;H Z URNX X]QDQR ]D ]DVDGQH ZSUR ZDG]HQLH QRZHM HSRNL Z JHRORJLF]Q\FK G]LHMDFK =LHPL s DQWURSRFHQX 1DND]X MH WR SU]HIRUPXÄ&#x;RZDQLH RERZLà ]XMà FHM GRWà G Z KXPDQLVW\FH ZL]ML F]Ä&#x;RZLHND X]XSHÄ&#x;QLHQLH MHM R GDQH ] REV]DUX QDXN R =LHPL L QDXNL R NOLPDFLH D WDNÅ&#x2022;H SR QRZQH UR]SR]QDQLH UHODFML F]Ä&#x;RZLHND ] non-human persons (IHNW\ EDGDÄ¡ ]RVWDÄ&#x;\ ]DSUH]HQWRZDQH Z F\NOX UHIH UDWÃ&#x17D;Z L DUW\NXÄ&#x;Ã&#x17D;Z ] REV]DUX ecological humanities HNRKXPDQLVW\NL L EDGDÄ¡ QDG DQWURSRFHQHP P LQ e6Ä&#x;RPLDQH SV\ DOER FR ZDUWR ZLHG]LHâ R DQWURSR FHQLHq e:LGPR QLHOXG]NRÄ·FL $QWURSR FHQ MDNR HSRND LQZROXFML F]Ä&#x;RZLHNDq e$QWURSRFHQ s VSÃ&#x17D;Å&#x201C;QLRQD WURVND Homo sapiens"q e.XOWXURZH XZDUXQNRZDQLD SUDNW\N ZREHF ]ZLHU]à W 0LôG]\ PLWR ORJLNà D NXOWXUà NRQVXPSFMRQL]PXq

'XH WR WKH GHVWUXFWLYH LQƮ XHQFH RI PRGHUQ KXPDQV Homo sapiens sapiens RQ RXU SODQHW LW ZDV FRQVLGHUHG MXVWLƬ HG LQ WR LQWURGXFH D QHZ HSRFK LQ WKH JHRORJLFDO KLVWRU\ RI WKH (DUWK s WKH $QWKURSRFHQH $V D UHVXOW LW LV QHFHVVDU\ WR UHIRUPXODWH WKH YLVLRQ RI D KXPDQ ZKLFK KDV EHHQ LQ SODFH LQ WKH KXPDQLWLHV XQWLO QRZ WR VXSSOH PHQW LW ZLWK GDWD IURP WKH Ƭ HOG RI (DUWK VFLHQFHV DQG FOLPDWH VFLHQFH DQG WR UH H[DPLQH WKH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ KXPDQV DQG QRQ KXPDQ SHUVRQV 7KH Hƪ HFWV RI UHVHDUFK ZHUH SUHVHQWHG LQ D VHULHV RI SDSHUV DQG DUWLFOHV LQ WKH Ƭ HOG RI HFRORJLFDO KXPDQLWLHV HFR KX PDQLWLHV DV ZHOO DV LQ UHVHDUFK RQ WKH $QWKURSRFHQH LQFOXGLQJ IRU H[DPSOH p6WUDZ GRJV RU ZKDW ZH VKRXOG NQRZ DERXW WKH $QWKURSRFHQHq p6SHFWUH RI LQKXPDQLW\ 7KH $QWKURSRFHQH DV DQ HSRFK RI KXPDQ LQYROXWLRQq p7KH $QWKURSRFHQH s EHODWHG FRQFHUQ RI Homo sapiens"q p&XOWXUDO FRQGLWLRQLQJ RI SUDFWLFHV WRZDUGV DQLPDOV %HWZHHQ P\WKR ORJLF DQG FXOWXUH RI FRQVXPH ULVPq

'U KDE 'REURVÄ&#x;DZD :ôÅ&#x2022;R ZLF] =LÃ&#x17D;Ä&#x;NRZVND MHVW DQWUR SRORJLHP NXOWXU\ ] ,QVW\WXWX 1DXN R .XOWXU]H L 6WXGLÃ&#x17D;Z ,Q WHUG\VF\SOLQDUQ\FK 8Ķ 3URZDG]L EDGDQLD QDG F]Ä&#x;R ZLHNLHP QD SRJUDQLF]X KXPD QLVW\NL L QDXN SU]\URGQLF]\FK

8

'U KDE 'REURVÄ&#x;DZD :ôÅ&#x2022;RZLF] =LÃ&#x17D;Ä&#x;NRZVND LV D FXOWXUDO DQWK URSRORJLVW DW WKH ,QVWLWXWH IRU &XOWXUDO 5HVHDUFK DQG ,QWHUGL VFLSOLQDU\ 6WXGLHV RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH 6KH FRQ GXFWV UHVHDUFK RQ KXPDQV RQ WKH HGJH RI WKH KXPDQLWLHV DQG QDWXUDO VFLHQFHV

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

:V]\VWNR R ]PLDQDFK NOLPDWX NU\]\VLH NOLPDW\F]Q\P

$OO DERXW FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG FOLPDWH FULVLV

1LJG\ Z KLVWRULL OXG]NRÄ·FL QLH VWDOLÄ·P\ ZREHF WDNLHJR Z\]ZDQLD :HGÄ&#x;XJ QDMQRZV]HJR UDSRUWX 0LôG]\U]à GR ZHJR 3DQHOX GV =PLDQ .OLPDWX ,33&

SXQNWHP NU\W\F]Q\P GOD F\ZLOL]DFML OXG]NLHM EôG]LH Z]URVW WHPSHUDWXU\ QD =LHPL R R& FR PRÅ&#x2022;HP\ RVLà JQà â MXÅ&#x2022; Z URNX 'ODWHJR WDN ZDÅ&#x2022;QD MHVW G]LDÄ&#x;DOQRķâ HGXNDF\MQD XSRZV]HFK QLDMà FD ZLHG]ô ]PLHQLDMà FD VSRVÃ&#x17D;E P\Ä·OHQLD L FRG]LHQQH SU]\]Z\F]DMHQLD 7\P ZÄ&#x;DÄ·QLH ]DMPXMH VLô SURI 3LRWU 6NXEDÄ&#x;D ] .DWHGU\ (NRORJLL NWÃ&#x17D;U\ XF]HVWQLF]\ Z WZRU]HQLX PLôG]\QD URGRZ\FK SURJUDPÃ&#x17D;Z HGXNDF\MQ\FK SURZDG]L V]NROHQLD ]DMôFLD L VSRWNDQLD ZSURZDG]DMà FH GR &23 3URI 6NX EDÄ&#x;D E\Ä&#x; WDNÅ&#x2022;H V\JQDWDULXV]HP OLVWX QDXNRZFÃ&#x17D;Z ] FDÄ&#x;HJR Ä·ZLDWD RVWU]HJD Mà FHJR OXG]NRķâ SU]HG ]EOLÅ&#x2022;DMà F\P VLô NU\]\VHP HNRORJLF]Q\P

1HYHU LQ WKH KLVWRU\ RI PDQNLQG KDYH ZH EHHQ IDFHG ZLWK VXFK D FKDOOHQJH $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH ODWHVW UHSRUW E\ WKH ,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO 3DQHO RQ &OLPDWH &KDQJH ,3&& WKH FULWLFDO SRLQW IRU WKH KXPDQ FLYLOLVDWLRQ ZLOO DUULYH DORQJ ZLWK DQ LQFUHDVH LQ WKH (DUWKoV WHP SHUDWXUH E\ R& ZKLFK PD\ KDSSHQ DV VRRQ DV LQ 7KHUHIRUH D YHU\ LPSRUWDQW UROH LV SOD\HG E\ HGXFDWLR QDO DFWLYLWLHV DLPHG DW GLVVHPLQDWLQJ NQRZOHGJH DV ZHOO DV DOWHULQJ WKH ZD\ RI WKLQNLQJ DQG GDLO\ KDELWV 7KHVH LVVXHV DUH XQGHUWDNHQ E\ 3URIHVVRU 3LRWU 6NXEDÄ&#x;D IURP WKH 'HSDUWPHQW RI (FRORJ\ ZKR SDUWLFLSDWHV LQ WKH FUHDWLRQ RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO HGXFDWLRQ SURJUDPPHV FRQGXFWV WUDLQLQJ FRXU VHV FODVVHV DQG LQWURGXFWRU\ PHHWLQJV EHIRUH WKH &23 3URIHVVRU 6NXEDÄ&#x;D ZDV DOVR D VLJQDWRU\ WR WKH OHWWHU E\ VFLHQWLVWV IURP DOO RYHU WKH ZRUOG LQ ZKLFK WKH\ ZDUQHG WKH KXPDQNLQG DERXW WKH LPSHQGLQJ HQYLURQPHQWDO FULVLV

3URI GU KDE 3LRWU 6NXEDÄ&#x;D ] :\G]LDÄ&#x;X %LRORJLL L 2FKURQ\ ĶURGRZLVND 8Ķ MHVW HNVSHU WHP Z ]DNUHVLH HNRORJLL Ƭ OR ]RƬ L Ä·URGRZLVND L HW\NL HNROR JLF]QHM

10

3URI GU KDE 3LRWU 6NXEDÄ&#x;D IURP WKH )DFXOW\ RI %LRORJ\ DQG (QYL URQPHQWDO 3URWHFWLRQ RI 8QL YHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH LV DQ H[SHUW LQ HFRORJ\ HQYLURQ PHQWDO SKLORVRSK\ DQG HFRORJL FDO HWKLFV

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

1RZRF]HVQD HGXNDFMD R SU]HFLZG]LDÄ&#x;DQLX ]DJURÅ&#x2022;H QLRP Ä·URGRZLVNRZ\P s *HR5,6.6

0RGHUQ HGXFDWLRQ DERXW FRXQWHUDFWLQJ HQYLURQPHQWDO KD]DUGV s *HR5,6.6

=PLDQ\ NOLPDW\F]QH SRZRGXMà FRUD] ZLôFHM HNVWUHPDOQ\FK ]MDZLVN WDNLFK MDN RVXZLVND SRZRG]LH VXV]H LWS 3RMDZLD VLô ]DWHP ZLôNV]H ]DSRWU]H ERZDQLH QD VSHFMDOLVWÃ&#x17D;Z SRWUDƬ à F\FK UHGXNRZDâ QHJDW\ZQH VNXWNL Z\ VWôSRZDQLD ]MDZLVN HNVWUHPDOQ\FK 'ODWHJR QD 8QLZHUV\WHFLH ĶOà VNLP SRZVWDÄ&#x; SURJUDP VWXGLÃ&#x17D;Z LQÅ&#x2022;\QLHULD ]DJURÅ&#x2022;HÄ¡ Ä·URGRZLVNRZ\FK : UDPDFK WHJR NLHUXQNX VWXGHQFL NV]WDÄ&#x;FHQL Và Z ]DNUHVLH PRÅ&#x2022;OLZRÄ·FL SU]HFLZG]LDÄ&#x;D QLD QHJDW\ZQ\P VNXWNRP ]PLDQ NOL PDWX L G]LDÄ&#x;DOQRÄ·FL F]Ä&#x;RZLHND 3R]QDMà V\VWHP\ ZF]HVQHJR RVWU]HJDQLD QD SU]\NÄ&#x;DG SU]HG WVXQDPL 'RZLDGXMà VLô Z MDNL VSRVÃ&#x17D;E QRZRF]HVQ\PL PH WRGDPL Z\NU\ZDâ RVXZLVND MDN PRÅ&#x2022;QD SU]HZLG]LHâ SRZRG]LH L SU]HFLZG]LDÄ&#x;Dâ LFK VNXWNRP 8F]à VLô PRGHORZDQLD L SURJQR]RZDQLD JHR]DJURÅ&#x2022;HÄ¡ D WDNÅ&#x2022;H ]GRE\ZDMà XPLHMôWQRÄ·FL G]LDÄ&#x;DQLD Z V\ WXDFMDFK NU\]\VRZ\FK

&OLPDWH FKDQJH LV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU DQ LQFUHDVLQJ QXPEHU RI VXFK H[WUHPH SKHQRPHQD DV ODQGVOLGHV Ʈ RRGV DQG GURXJKWV $V D UHVXOW WKHUH LV D JUHDWHU GHPDQG IRU VSHFLDOLVWV ZKR DUH FDSD EOH RI UHGXFLQJ WKH QHJDWLYH Hƪ HFWV RI H[WUHPH SKHQRPHQD 7KHUHIRUH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH FUH DWHG D VWXG\ SURJUDPPH IRU HQYLURQ PHQWDO ULVN HQJLQHHUV ,Q WKLV PDMRU VWXGHQWV OHDUQ DERXW WKH SRVVLELOLWLHV RI FRXQWHUDFWLQJ WKH QHJDWLYH FRQVH TXHQFHV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG KXPDQ DFWLYLW\ 7KH\ EHFRPH IDPLOLDU ZLWK HDU O\ ZDUQLQJ V\VWHPV H J IRU WVXQDPLV DQG Ƭ QG RXW KRZ WR GHWHFW ODQGVOLGHV XVLQJ PRGHUQ PHWKRGV DV ZHOO DV KRZ WR SUHGLFW Ʈ RRGV DQG FRXQWHUDFW WKHLU Hƪ HFWV 0RUHRYHU WKH\ OHDUQ KRZ WR PRGHO DQG IRUHFDVW JHRKD]DUGV DV ZHOO DV JDLQ WKH DELOLW\ WR DFW LQ FULVLV VLWXDWLRQV

,QÅ&#x2022;\QLHULD ]DJURÅ&#x2022;HÄ¡ Ä·URGRZL VNRZ\FK WR VWXGLD SLHUZV]HJR L GUXJLHJR VWRSQLD SURZDG]R QH QD :\G]LDOH 1DXN R =LHPL 8Ķ

(QYLURQPHQWDO ULVN HQJLQH HULQJ LV WDXJKW LQ WKH IRUP RI Ƭ UVW DQG VHFRQG F\FOH VWXGLHV DW WKH )DFXOW\ RI (DUWK 6FLHQ FHV RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

11

6SRÄ&#x;HF]HÄ¡VWZR SURVXPHQF NLH s SURVXPHQFND HQHUJHW\ ND 3526

3URVXPHU VRFLHW\ s SURVXPHU SRZHU HQJLQHHULQJ 3526

3URJUDP VSRÄ&#x;HF]HÄ¡VWZR SURVXPHQF NLH s SURVXPHQFND HQHUJHW\ND WR LQQRZDF\MQD RIHUWD HGXNDF\MQD Ä&#x;à F]à FD NLOND SHUVSHNW\Z VSRÄ&#x;HF]Qà NXOWXUR Zà SUDZQà HNRQRPLF]Qà ] RFKURQà ķURGRZLVND L UR]ZLà ]DQLDPL WHFKQR ORJLF]Q\PL Z LQWHUG\VF\SOLQDUQ\ SUR JUDP VWXGLÃ&#x17D;Z SRG\SORPRZ\FK &HOHP MHVW NUHRZDQLH Ä·ZLDGRP\FK SRVWDZ F]Ä&#x;RQNÃ&#x17D;Z VSRÄ&#x;HF]HÄ¡VWZD SR]QDQLH SRGVWDZ WHFKQRORJLL L U\QNX 2=( SURPXMà FHJR RGHMÄ·FLH RG V\VWHPÃ&#x17D;Z HQHUJHW\F]Q\FK RSDUW\FK QD GXÅ&#x2022;\FK EORNDFK HQHUJHW\F]Q\FK Z NLHUXQNX W]Z HQHUJLL UR]SURV]RQHM LGHD WD ]DNÄ&#x;DGD Å&#x2022;H RE\ZDWHO EôG]LH QLH W\ONR NRQVXPRZDÄ&#x; HQHUJLô DOH UÃ&#x17D;ZQLHÅ&#x2022; Mà Z\WZDU]DÄ&#x; 3URJUDP ]DMôâ XPRÅ&#x2022;OLZLD X]\VNDQLH ZLHG]\ ] ]DNUHVX GRUDG] WZD HQHUJHW\F]QHJR L Ä·ZLDGRPHJR GHƬ QLRZDQLD SRWU]HE PRGHUQL]RZDQLD LQVWDODFML Z\WZDU]DMà F\FK HQHUJLô GOD JRVSRGDUVWZ GRPRZ\FK RUD] ZVSÃ&#x17D;OQRW PLHV]NDQLRZ\FK LQVW\WXFML L VSRÄ&#x;HF]QRÄ·FL ORNDOQ\FK

7KH SURJUDPPH p3URVXPHU VRFLH W\ s SURVXPHU SRZHU HQJLQHHULQJq LV DQ LQQRYDWLYH HGXFDWLRQ Rƪ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Ƭ HOG RI HQHUJ\ FRQVXOWLQJ DQG FRQVFLR XV GHƬ QLWLRQ RI WKH QHHG WR PRGHUQLVH WKH V\VWHPV ZKLFK SURGXFH HQHUJ\ IRU KRXVHKROGV KRXVLQJ FRRSHUDWLYHV LQVWLWXWLRQV DQG ORFDO FRPPXQLWLHV

:VSÃ&#x17D;Ä&#x;WZÃ&#x17D;UFà SURMHNWX MHVW GU KDE (G\WD 6LHUND s ELRORJ VSHFMDOL]XMà FD VLô Z RFKURQLH Ä·URGRZLVND SUDFRZQLN :\ G]LDÄ&#x;X %LRORJLL L 2FKURQ\ ĶUR GRZLVND 8Ķ

12

7KH FR DXWKRU RI WKH SURMHFW LV GU KDE (G\WD 6LHUND s ELRORJLVW VSHFLDOLVLQJ LQ HQYLURQPHQWDO SURWHFWLRQ HPSOR\HH RI WKH )DFXOW\ RI %LRORJ\ DQG (QYLURQ PHQWDO 3URWHFWLRQ RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

8WZRU]HQLH SURJUDPX VWXGLÃ&#x17D;Z HNRORJLD NXOWXURZD

/DXQFKLQJ RI D VWXG\ SURJUDP PH LQ &XOWXUDO (FRORJ\

&]Ä&#x;RZLHN RG ]DZV]H Z\NRU]\VW\ZDÄ&#x; ]DVRE\ QDWXUDOQH : REHFQ\FK F]DVDFK F]HUSDQLH ] W\FK Å&#x201C;UÃ&#x17D;GHÄ&#x; RVLà JQôÄ&#x;R QLH]QDQH ZF]HÄ·QLHM UR]PLDU\ .RQVH NZHQFMà MHVW ]GHZDVWRZDQ\ NUDMREUD] ]DWUXWH SRZLHWU]H L ZRGD 3RSU]HP\ VÄ&#x;RZ\ HNRV\VWHP Z\PDJD REHFQLH UHZLWDOL]DFML L QDP\VÄ&#x;X HNRORJLF]QHJR )RUPà RGSRZLHG]L QD Wô SRWU]HEô MHVW XWZRU]HQLH SURJUDPX VWXGLÃ&#x17D;Z HNRORJLD NXOWXURZD -HJR FHOHP MHVW XND]DQLH ]Ä&#x;RÅ&#x2022;RQ\FK UHODFML PLôG]\ F]Ä&#x;R ZLHNLHP L MHJR NXOWXUà D RWDF]DMà F\P JR Ä·URGRZLVNLHP SU]\URGQLF]\P 5H DOL]DFMD SURMHNWX QD ĶOà VNX MHVW R W\OH FLHNDZD Å&#x2022;H RSUÃ&#x17D;F] SRVWLQGXVWULDOQHJR NUDMREUD]X *Ã&#x17D;UQRÄ·Oà VNLHJR 2NUôJX 3U]HP\VÄ&#x;RZHJR NWÃ&#x17D;U\ Z ]QDF]Q\P VWRSQLX ]RVWDÄ&#x; ]QLV]F]RQ\ SU]H] SU]H P\VÄ&#x; FLôÅ&#x2022;NL PRÅ&#x2022;QD WX REVHUZRZDâ HNRV\VWHP\ RSDUWH QD KDUPRQLMQ\P ZVSÃ&#x17D;Ä&#x;LVWQLHQLX MDN Z SU]\SDGNX JÃ&#x17D;U VNLHM JRVSRGDUNL SDVWHUVNLHM

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

.RRUG\QDWRUNà VWXGLÃ&#x17D;Z L ZVSÃ&#x17D;Ä&#x;DXWRUHP SURJUDPX MHVW GU 0DJGDOHQD 6]DOERW HWQR ORJ ] :\G]LDÄ&#x;X (WQRORJLL L 1D XNL R (GXNDFML 8Ķ

14

7KH FRRUGLQDWRU RI WKH VWXGLHV DQG WKH FR DXWKRU RI WKH SUR JUDPPH LV GU 0DJGDOHQD 6]DO ERW HWKQRORJLVW DW WKH )DFXOW\ RI (WKQRORJ\ DQG (GXFDWLRQDO 6FLHQFH RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

1LH Å&#x2022;à GOô ]DS\ODP

, GRQoW VWLQJ , SROOLQDWH

=PLDQ\ NOLPDW\F]QH ]DEXU]DMà LQWHUDN FMH PLôG]\ URÄ·OLQDPL L ]DS\ODMà F\PL MH RZDGDPL 3RZRGHP MHVW RJUDQLF]HQLH GRVWôSQRÄ·FL ]DVREÃ&#x17D;Z QHNWDUX L S\Ä&#x;NX HIHNWHP s RJUDQLF]HQLH OLF]HEQRÄ·FL ]DS\ODF]\ =DEXU]HQLH ]DOHÅ&#x2022;QRÄ·FL PLôG]\ ]DS\ODF]DPL L URÄ·OLQDPL PRÅ&#x2022;H SURZDG]Lâ GR XWUDW\ MHGQHJR ] DVSHN WÃ&#x17D;Z XVÄ&#x;XJ HNRV\VWHPRZ\FK MDNLP MHVW ]DS\ODQLH 7R PRÅ&#x2022;H QLHķâ NROHMQH QHJD W\ZQH VNXWNL REQLÅ&#x2022;HQLH UÃ&#x17D;Å&#x2022;QRURGQRÄ·FL JDWXQNÃ&#x17D;Z G]LNR URVQà F\FK URÄ·OLQ ]DJURÅ&#x2022;HQLH VWDELOQRÄ·FL HNRV\VWHPÃ&#x17D;Z SURGXNFML Å&#x2022;\ZQRÄ·FL L RVWDWHF]QLH s GR EURVWDQX OXG]NRÄ·FL 3URMHNW e1LH Å&#x2022;à GOô ]DS\ODPq WR DNFMD HGXNDF\MQD DGUHVR ZDQD GR G]LHFL PÄ&#x;RG]LHÅ&#x2022;\ L GRURVÄ&#x;\FK : UDPDFK SURMHNWX QD GDFKX :\G]LDÄ&#x;X 3UDZD L $GPLQLVWUDFML SRZVWDÄ&#x;D SDVLHND EôGà FD SRGVWDZà F\NOX ZDUV]WDWÃ&#x17D;Z 7HPDW\ND ]DMôâ GRW\F]\ UROL RZDGÃ&#x17D;Z Z HNRV\VWHPLH PLHMVNLP LFK ]QDF]HQLD GOD ELRUÃ&#x17D;Å&#x2022;QRURGQRÄ·FL Ä·URGRZLVND PLHMVNLHJR RUD] XG]LDÄ&#x;X F]Ä&#x;RZLHND Z SRGWU]\P\ZDQLX UÃ&#x17D;Å&#x2022;QRURGQRÄ·FL JDWXQNRZHM PLDVW

&OLPDWH FKDQJH Dƪ HFWV WKH LQWHUDF WLRQV EHWZHHQ SODQWV DQG LQVHFWV ZKLFK SROOLQDWH WKHP 7KH UHDVRQ LV WKH OLPLWHG DYDLODELOLW\ RI QHFWDU DQG SROOHQ DQG WKH Hƪ HFW s OLPLWHG QXPEHU RI SROOLQDWRUV 'LVWXUEHG GHSHQGHQFH EHWZHHQ SROOLQDWRUV DQG SODQWV PD\ OHDG WR D ORVV RI RQH RI WKH DVSHFWV RI HFRV\VWHP VHUYLFHV s SROOLQDWLRQ ,W PD\ FDXVH IXUWKHU QHJDWLYH Hƪ HFWV GHFUHDVH LQ GLYHUVLW\ RI ZLOG SODQWV VSHFLHV WKUHDW WR WKH VWDELOLW\ RI HFRV\VWHPV IRRG SURGXFWLRQ DQG XO WLPDWHO\ WKH ZHOO EHLQJ RI KXPDQNLQG 7KH SURMHFW p, GRQoW VWLQJ , SROOLQDWHq LV DQ HGXFDWLRQ DFWLRQ DGGUHVVHG WR FKLOGUHQ WHHQDJHUV DQG DGXOWV $V SDUW RI WKH SURMHFW DQ DSLDU\ KDV EHHQ FUHDWHG RQ WKH URRI RI WKH )DFXOW\ RI /DZ DQG $GPLQLVWUDWLRQ ZKLFK IRUPV WKH EDVLV IRU D F\FOH RI ZRUNVKRSV GHGLFDWHG WR WKH UROH RI LQVHFWV LQ XUEDQ HFRV\VWHP WKHLU PHDQLQJ IRU ELRGLYHUVLW\ RI XUEDQ HQYLURQPHQW DQG SDUWLFLSDWLRQ RI KXPDQV LQ VXVWDLQLQJ WKH VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ LQ FLWLHV

.LHURZQLNLHP SURMHNWX MHVW GU KDE $JQLHV]ND %DEF]\Ä¡ VND VSHFMDOLVWD Z G]LHG]LQLH Ƭ ]MRORJLL EH]NUôJRZFÃ&#x17D;Z ] :\ G]LDÄ&#x;X %LRORJLL L 2FKURQ\ ĶUR GRZLVND 8Ķ

7KH SURMHFW PDQDJHU LV GU KDE $JQLHV]ND %DEF]\Ä¡VND VSHFLD OLVW LQ LQYHUWHEUDWH SK\VLRORJ\ DW WKH )DFXOW\ RI %LRORJ\ DQG (QYLURQPHQWDO 3URWHFWLRQ RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

15

5HNRQVWUXNFMD ZDUXQNÃ&#x17D;Z NOLPDW\F]Q\FK *Ã&#x17D;UQHJR ĶOà VND Z RVWDWQLFK VWXOHFLDFK QD SRGVWDZLH GUHZQD KLVWRU\F] QHJR

5HFRQVWUXFWLRQ RI WKH FOLPDWLF FRQGLWLRQV LQ WKH 8SSHU 6LOHVLD GXULQJ WKH ODVW FHQWXULHV EDVHG RQ KLVWRULFDO ZRRG

1DMVWDUV]H SRPLDU\ PHWHRURORJLF]QH E\Ä&#x;\ SURZDG]RQH QD *Ã&#x17D;UQ\P ĶOà VNX Z ;,; ZLHNX $E\ SR]QDâ KLVWRULô NOLPDWX Z RNUHVLH ZF]HÄ·QLHMV]\P PRÅ&#x2022;HP\ Z\NRU]\VWDâ UÃ&#x17D;Å&#x2022;QH DUFKLZD Z W\P Å&#x201C;UÃ&#x17D;GÄ&#x;D SLVDQH NURQLNL F]\ PRQHW\ RNROLF]QRÄ·FLRZH D WDNÅ&#x2022;H SU]\ URVW\ URF]QH GU]HZ :\NRU]\VWXMH VLô GU]HZD URVQà FH Z UH]HUZDWDFK SU]\ URG\ D WDNÅ&#x2022;H GUHZQR ] ]DE\WNRZ\FK EXG\QNÃ&#x17D;Z GUHZQLDQ\FK F]\ SQLH ]D JU]HEDQH Z RVDGDFK =HEUDQ\ PDWHULDÄ&#x; SR]ZDOD QD NRQVWUXNFMH FKURQRORJLL REHMPXMà F\FK VZ\P ]DVLôJLHP RVWDW QLH NLONDVHW ODW ']LôNL WHPX EDGDQLD GHQGURNOLPDW\F]QH XPRÅ&#x2022;OLZLDMà SR ]QDQLH ZLHOROHWQLHM ]PLHQQRÄ·FL NOLPDWX Z VNDOL NLONX VWXOHFL D QDZHW W\VLà FOH FLD Z RNUHVLH NLHG\ QLH E\Ä&#x;R SRPLDUÃ&#x17D;Z PHWHRURORJLF]Q\FK 1D WHM SRGVWDZLH ]UHNRQVWUXRZDQR ZDUXQNL NOLPDW\F]QH SDQXMà FH QD *Ã&#x17D;UQ\P ĶOà VNX Z RNUHVLH RVWDWQLFK ODW V]F]HJÃ&#x17D;Ä&#x;\ ]RVWDQà SU]HGVWDZLRQH Z F]DVLH ]DSURSRQR ZDQHJR UHIHUDWX e=PLDQ\ NOLPDWX Z RVWDWQLP W\VLà FOHFLX L LFK ZSÄ&#x;\Z QD Å&#x2022;\FLH F]Ä&#x;RZLHNDq

7KH YHU\ Ƭ UVW PHWHRURORJLFDO PHDVX UHPHQWV LQ WKH 8SSHU 6LOHVLD ZHUH FDUULHG RXW IURP WKH WK century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p&OLPDWH FKDQJH RYHU WKH SDVW \HDUV DQG LWV Hƪ HFWV RQ KXPDQ OLIHq

3URMHNW ]UHDOL]RZDÄ&#x;D GU 0DJ GDOHQD 2SDÄ&#x;D 2ZF]DUHN GHQGURNOLPDWRORJ ] :\G]LDÄ&#x;X 1DXN R =LHPL 8Ķ

16

7KH SURMHFW ZDV FDUULHG RXW E\ GU 0DJGDOHQD 2SDÄ&#x;D 2ZF]DUHN GHQGURFOLPDWRORJLVW DW WKH )DFXOW\ RI (DUWK 6FLHQ FHV RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

2FHQD ]DOHÅ&#x2022;QRÄ·FL SRPLôG]\ IXQNFMRQDOQà UÃ&#x17D;Å&#x2022;QRURGQRÄ·FLà URÄ·OLQ VWUXNWXUà ]HVSRÄ&#x;Ã&#x17D;Z PLNURRUJDQL]PÃ&#x17D;Z L ELODQVHP ZôJOD Z F]DVLH VSRQWDQLF]QHM VXNFHVML QD WHUHQDFK SRSU]HP\VÄ&#x;RZ\FK ] Z\NRU]\VWDQLHP DQDOL] PHWDWUDQVNU\SWRPLF]Q\FK

$VVHVVPHQW RI WKH LQWHUGHSHQGHQFLHV EHWZHHQ WKH IXQFWLRQDO ELRGLYHUVLW\ RI SODQWV WKH VWUXFWXUH RI PLFURRUJDQLVP FRPPXQLWLHV DQG WKH FDUERQ EDODQFH GXULQJ VSRQWDQHRXV VXFFHVVLRQ LQ IRUPHU LQGXVWULDO DUHDV XVLQJ PHWDWUDQVFULSWRPLF PHWKRGV

&KFà F ]UHGXNRZDâ LORķâ GZXWOHQNX ZôJOD Z DWPRVIHU]H SRZLQQLÄ·P\ SDPLôWDâ Å&#x2022;H GZLH WU]HFLH SXOL ZôJOD QD Oà G]LH ]GHSRQRZDQH MHVW Z JOHELH =UR]XPLHQLH WHJR MDNà GURJà RQ WDP GRFLHUD L FR VLô ] QLP GDOHM G]LHMH MHVW SLHUZV]\P NURNLHP GR WHJR E\ QD XF]\â VLô MDN ]PQLHMV]Dâ NRQFHQWUDFMô ZôJOD Z DWPRVIHU]H ZSURZDG]DMà F JR L XW\OL]XMà F Z JOHELH 0RÅ&#x2022;HP\ GR WHJR Z\NRU]\VWDâ QDWXUDOQH SURFHV\ SRQLHZDÅ&#x2022; ZôJLHO GRVWDMH VLô GR JOHE\ G]LôNL URÄ·OLQRP D ]D MHJR UR]NÄ&#x;DG RGSRZLHG]LDOQH Và PLNURRUJDQL]P\ GOD NWÃ&#x17D;U\FK ZôJLHO MHVW SRÅ&#x2022;\ZLHQLHP 6HNZHQFMRQRZDQLH 51$ SR]ZROL QD UR]SR]QDQLH JUXS PLNURRUJDQL]PÃ&#x17D;Z NWÃ&#x17D;UH Và ]ZLà ]DQH ] GRPLQXMà F\PL JDWXQNDPL URÄ·OLQ L Z\Å&#x2022;V]à ]DZDUWRÄ·FLà ZôJOD Z JOHELH :\QLNL EDGDÄ¡ GRVWDU F]à LQIRUPDFML XÅ&#x2022;\WHF]Q\FK Z UR]ZRMX HIHNW\ZQ\FK VWUDWHJLL RGQRZ\ VWD QRZLVN SRJÃ&#x17D;UQLF]\FK MDNR DNW\ZQ\FK SRFKÄ&#x;DQLDF]\ ZôJOD

,Q RUGHU WR UHGXFH WKH DPRXQW RI FDU ERQ GLR[LGH LQ WKH DWPRVSKHUH LW LV LP SRUWDQW WR UHPHPEHU WKDW WZR WKLUGV RI WKH SRRO RI FDUERQ RQ ODQG LV GHSRVL WHG LQ WKH VRLO 8QGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH ZD\ LW JHWV WKHUH DQG ZKDW KDSSHQV WR LW LQ WKH VXEVHTXHQW VWDJHV PDUNV WKH Ƭ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ƪ HFWLYH VWUDWHJLHV IRU UHVWRULQJ SRVW PLQLQJ VLWHV DV DFWL YH DEVRUEHUV RI FDUERQ

.LHURZQLNLHP SURMHNWX MHVW SURI ]Z GU KDE =RƬ D 3LR WURZVND 6HJHW VSHFMDOLVWND Z ]DNUHVLH PLNURELRORJLL Ä·UR GRZLVND ] :\G]LDÄ&#x;X %LRORJLL L 2FKURQ\ ĶURGRZLVND 8Ķ

18

7KH KHDG RI WKH SURMHFW LV SURI ]Z GU KDE =RƬ D 3LRWURZVND 6HJHW VSHFLDOLVW LQ WKH Ƭ HOG RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PLFURELRORJ\ DW WKH )DFXOW\ RI %LRORJ\ DQG (QYLURQPHQWDO 3URWHFWLRQ RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

*HQRPLND WUDQVODF\MQD Z LGHQW\Ƭ NDFML PHFKDQL]PX G]LDÄ&#x;DQLD VLJQDORVRPX &%3 w odpowiedzi Arabidopsis L MôF]PLHQLD QD VWUHV VXV]\

7UDQVODWLRQDO JHQRPLFV LQ LGHQWLI\LQJ WKH RSHUDWLQJ PHFKDQLVP EHKLQG WKH &%3 VLJQDORVRPH LQ WKH UHVSRQVH of Arabidopsis DQG EDUOH\ WR WKH GURXJKW VWUHVV

=JRGQLH ] QDMQRZV]\PL UDSRUWDPL GRW\F]à F\PL VWUHVX VXV]\ V\WXDFMD Z (XURSLH MHVW QDMJRUV]D RG SRQDG ODW 5HDOQH ]DJURÅ&#x2022;HQLH XSUDZ VXV]à RGQRWRZDQR UÃ&#x17D;ZQLHÅ&#x2022; Z 3ROVFH %LRUà F SRG XZDJô SRZ\Å&#x2022;V]H RUD] ZFLà Å&#x2022; URVQà Fà SRSXODFMô OXG]Nà QLH]Z\NOH LVWRWQH L DNWXDOQH Và EDGDQLD PDMà FH QD FHOX FDÄ&#x;NRZLWH SR]QDQLH L ]UR]XPLHQLH PH FKDQL]PX RGSRZLHG]L URÄ·OLQ QD VWUHV GHƬ F\WX ZRG\ 8]\VNDQH GRW\FKF]DV Z\QLNL EDGDÄ¡ QDG MôF]PLHQLHP XPRÅ&#x2022; OLZLÄ&#x;\ QDP ZVND]DQLH KLSRWHW\F]QHJR PHFKDQL]PX G]LDÄ&#x;DQLD JHQX &%3 5RÄ·OLQD X NWÃ&#x17D;UHM QDVWà SLÄ&#x;D PXWDFMD WHJR JHQX FKDUDNWHU\]XMH VLô V]\EV]à DGDSWDFMà GR ZDUXQNÃ&#x17D;Z VWUHVX %DGD QLD SRND]DÄ&#x;\ Å&#x2022;H ]DQLP URÄ·OLQ\ IRUP\ Z\MÄ·FLRZHM ]RULHQWXMà VLô Å&#x2022;H ]QDOD]Ä&#x;\ VLô Z V\WXDFML QLHGRERUX ZRG\ PXWDQW XUXFKDPLD MXÅ&#x2022; RGSRZLHGÅ&#x201C; L SU]HSURJUD PRZXMH VZÃ&#x17D;M PHWDEROL]P E\ ZDOF]\â ] GHƬ F\WHP ZRG\ Z SRGÄ&#x;RÅ&#x2022;X

$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH ODWHVW UHSRUWV FRQFHU QLQJ GURXJKW VWUHVV WKH VLWXDWLRQ LQ (XURSH LV WKH ZRUVW LQ RYHU \HDUV $ UHDO GURXJKW ULVN IRU FURSV KDV DOVR EHHQ UHFRUGHG LQ 3RODQG *LYHQ WKH IRUHJRLQJ DQG WKH FRQVWDQWO\ JURZLQJ KXPDQ SRSXODWLRQ DQ H[WUHPHO\ LPSRUWDQW DQG WRSLFDO UROH LV SOD\HG E\ UHVHDUFK DLPHG DW FRPSUHKHQVLYH H[SORUDWLRQ DQG XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH PHFKDQLVP EHKLQG SODQW UHVSRQVHV WR ZDWHU GHƬ FLW VWUHVV 7KH UHVHDUFK UHVXOWV REWDLQHG WR GDWH RQ EDUOH\ KDYH PDGH LW SRVVLEOH IRU XV WR LQGLFDWH D K\SRWKHWLFDO PHFKDQLVP EHKLQG WKH &%3 JHQH 7KH SODQWV WKDW XQGHU ZHQW WKH PXWDWLRQ RI WKLV JHQH H[KLELW IDVWHU DGDSWDWLRQ WR VWUHVV FRQGLWLRQV 7KH UHVHDUFK GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW EHIRUH WKH SODQWV LQ WKH LQSXW IRUP UH DOLVH WKDW WKH\ IDFH D ZDWHU GHƬ FLW WKH PXWDQW DOUHDG\ WULJJHUV D UHVSRQVH DQG UH SURJUDPPHV LWV PHWDEROLVP WR Ƭ JKW WKH ZDWHU GHƬ FLW LQ WKH JURXQG

.LHURZQLNLHP SURMHNWX MHVW GU $JDWD 'DV]NRZVND *ROHF JHQHW\N ] :\G]LDÄ&#x;X %LRORJLL L 2FKURQ\ ĶURGRZLVND 8Ķ

7KH KHDG RI WKH SURMHFW LV GU $JDWD 'DV]NRZVND *ROHF JHQH WLFLVW DW WKH )DFXOW\ RI %LRORJ\ DQG (QYLURQPHQWDO 3URWHFWLRQ RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

19

:\NRU]\VWDQLH PLNURRUJDQL ]PÃ&#x17D;Z MDNR PDUNHUÃ&#x17D;Z ]PLDQ WHPSD WRSQLHQLD ORGRZFÃ&#x17D;Z QD 6SLWVEHUJHQLH

7KH XVH RI PLFURRUJDQLVPV DV PDUNHUV RI WKH YDULDELOLW\ LQ WKH JODFLDO PHOWLQJ UDWH RQ 6SLWVEHUJHQ

:]UDVWD WHPSR WRSQLHQLD ORGRZFÃ&#x17D;Z L FKFHP\ ZLHG]LHâ MDN WR VLô G]LHMH :LHP\ MXÅ&#x2022; Å&#x2022;H ZSÄ&#x;\ZD RQR QD ]PLDQô Ä·URGRZLVND Å&#x2022;\FLD PLNURRUJDQL]PÃ&#x17D;Z ]DVLHGODMà F\FK ORGRZFH QD SU]\NÄ&#x;DG SU]H] ]PLDQô ZÄ&#x;DÄ·FLZRÄ·FL Ƭ ]\NRFKH PLF]Q\FK ZRG\ 3RQLHZDÅ&#x2022; PLNURRUJD QL]P\ Và QLH]Z\NOH F]XÄ&#x;H QD ]PLDQ\ Ä·URGRZLVNRZH WR EDGDMà F MH PRÅ&#x2022;HP\ ZLôFHM GRZLHG]LHâ VLô R VDP\P WRSQLH QLX ORGRZFÃ&#x17D;Z -DN MHGQDN EDGDâ PLNUR RUJDQL]P\ Å&#x2022;\Mà FH SRG ORGRZà VNRUXSà " 1LHNWÃ&#x17D;UH ORGRZFH QD 6SLWVEHUJHQLH PDMà UR]ZLQLôW\ V\VWHP NDQDÄ&#x;Ã&#x17D;Z NWÃ&#x17D; U\P RGSURZDG]DMà ZRGô SRZVWDÄ&#x;à ] LFK WRSQLHQLD =LPà Z\SÄ&#x;\ZDMà FD ZRGD V]\ENR ]DPDU]D SU]HG F]RÄ&#x;HP ORGRZFD WZRU]à F WDN ]ZDQH QDORG]LD Z NV]WDÄ&#x;FLH NRSXÄ&#x; OXE VWRÅ&#x2022;NÃ&#x17D;Z ']LôNL WHPX PDP\ XQLNDOQà PRÅ&#x2022;OLZRķâ EDGD QLD WUDQVSRUWRZDQ\FK ZUD] ] ZRGDPL SRGORGRZFRZ\PL PLNURRUJDQL]PÃ&#x17D;Z NWÃ&#x17D;UH QDWXUDOQLH Z\VWôSXMà Z QLHGR VWôSQ\FK GOD QDV PLHMVFDFK

7KH PHOWLQJ UDWH RI JODFLHUV LV RQ WKH ULVH DQG ZH ZRXOG OLNH WR Ƭ QG RXW KRZ LW KDSSHQV :H DOUHDG\ NQRZ WKDW LW Dƪ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Ʈ RZLQJ ZDWHU TXLFNO\ IUHH]HV LQ IURQW RI WKH KHDG RI D JODFLHU IRUPLQJ WKH VR FDOOHG QDLOHG LFH LFLQJ LQ WKH VKDSH RI GRPHV RU FRQHV 7KLV SURYLGHV XV ZLWK D XQLTXH RSSRUWXQLW\ WR H[DPLQH WKH PLFURRU JDQLVPV WUDQVSRUWHG DORQJ ZLWK SRVW JODFLDO ZDWHUV ZKLFK QDWXUDOO\ RFFXU LQ SODFHV WKDW ZH FDQQRW DFFHVV

.LHURZQLNLHP SURMHNWX MHVW GU 6Ä&#x;DZRPLU 6XÄ&#x;RZLF] PLNUR ELRORJ ] :\G]LDÄ&#x;X %LRORJLL L 2FKURQ\ ĶURGRZLVND 8Ķ

20

7KH KHDG RI WKH SURMHFW LV GU 6Ä&#x;DZRPLU 6XÄ&#x;RZLF] PLFURELR ORJLVW DW WKH )DFXOW\ RI %LRORJ\ DQG (QYLURQPHQWDO 3URWHFWLRQ RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

8/.$ s 8QLZHUV\WHFNLH /DER UDWRULD .RQWUROL $WPRVIHU\

8/.$ s 8QLYHUVLW\ /DERUDWR ULHV IRU $WPRVSKHUH &RQWURO

6NRNRZH SRJRUV]HQLH MDNRÄ·FL SRZLH WU]D MHVW FRUD] F]ôVWV]à SU]\F]\Qà ]JRQÃ&#x17D;Z 3RODNÃ&#x17D;Z 'ODWHJR 8QLZHUV\WHW ĶOà VNL Z .DWRZLFDFK XUXFKRPLÄ&#x; SLHUZ V]H Z 3ROVFH ODERUDWRULXP GR EDGDÄ¡ ]DQLHF]\V]F]HÄ¡ DWPRVIHU\ XPLHV] F]RQH Z NRV]X EDORQX QD RJU]DQH SRZLHWU]H : UDPDFK 8QLZHUV\WHFNLFK /DERUDWRULÃ&#x17D;Z .RQWUROL $WPRVIHU\ 1DSRZLHWU]QH 0RELOQH /DERUDWRULXP 8/.$ SR]ZDOD SURZDG]Lâ DQDOL]\ DWPRVIHU\ QD UÃ&#x17D;Å&#x2022;Q\FK Z\VRNRÄ·FLDFK QDG ]LHPLà 8]\VNDQH Z\QLNL SRPDJDMà ZVND]Dâ Å&#x201C;UÃ&#x17D;GÄ&#x;D ]DQLHF]\V]F]HQLD SRND]Dâ ]DVLôJ RUD] GURJL LFK UR]SU]H VWU]HQLDQLD VLô =HEUDQH LQIRUPDFMH SR]ZDODMà GRNRQDâ RFHQ\ RGG]LDÄ&#x;\ ZDQLD ]DQLHF]\V]F]HÄ¡ QD Ä·URGRZLVNR L ]GURZLH PLHV]NDÄ¡FÃ&#x17D;Z D WDNÅ&#x2022;H s SU]\ ZVSÃ&#x17D;Ä&#x;SUDF\ ] Ƭ ]\NDPL PDWHPDW\NDPL L LQIRUPDW\NDPL s SR]ZROà QD PRGHOR ZDQLH WHJR ]MDZLVND

$EUXSW GHWHULRUDWLRQ RI DLU TXDOLW\ LV EHFRPLQJ DQ LQFUHDVLQJO\ FRPPRQ FDXVH RI GHDWK DPRQJ 3ROHV 7KLV LV ZK\ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH KDV RSHQHG WKH Ƭ UVW DLU SROOXWLRQ ODERUDWRU\ LQ 3RODQG ZKLFK LV ORFDWHG LQ D KRW DLU EDOORRQ :LWKLQ WKH IUDPH ZRUN RI 8QLYHUVLW\ /DERUDWRULHV IRU $WPRVSKHUH &RQWURO WKH $HULDO 0RELOH /DERUDWRU\ 8/.$ DOORZV IRU DQDO\VLQJ WKH DWPRVSKHUH DW GLƪ HUHQW DOWLWXGHV DERYH WKH JURXQG 7KH REWDLQHG UHVXOWV DUH XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH VRXUFHV RI SROOXWLRQ LWV UHDFK DQG GLUHFWLRQV RI GLVSHUVLRQ 7KH JDWKHUHG LQIRUPDWLRQ PDNHV LW SRVVLEOH WR HYDOXDWH WKH LP SDFW RI SROOXWLRQ RQ WKH HQYLURQPHQW DQG KHDOWK RI UHVLGHQWV DQG s ZLWK WKH KHOS RI SK\VLFLVWV PDWKHPDWLFLDQV DQG FRPSXWHU VSHFLDOLVWV s LW DOORZV IRU WKH PRGHOOLQJ RI WKLV SKHQRPHQRQ

.LHURZQLNLHP SURMHNWX 8/.$ MHVW GU KDE 0DULROD -DEÄ&#x;RÄ¡ VND JHRFKHPLN ] :\G]LDÄ&#x;X 1DXN R =LHPL 8Ķ

22

7KH 8/.$ SURMHFW LV PDQDJHG E\ GU KDE 0DULROD -DEÄ&#x;RÄ¡VND JHRFKHPLVW DW WKH )DFXOW\ RI (DUWK 6FLHQFHV RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

:SÄ&#x;\Z LQZHUVML WHPSHUDWXU\ Z ZDUVWZLH JUDQLF]QHM DWPRVIHU\ QD ]DQLHF]\V]F]H QLH SRZLHWU]D

,QÆ® XHQFH RI WHPSHUDWXUH LQYHUVLRQ LQ WKH ERXQGDU\ OD\HU RI WKH DWPRVSKHUH RQ DLU SROOXWLRQ

,QZHUVMD WHPSHUDWXU\ F]\OL RGZUÃ&#x17D;FH QLH QRUPDOQHJR VSDGNX WHPSHUDWXU\ ZUD] ] Z\VRNRÄ·FLà REVHUZRZDQD MHVW JÄ&#x;Ã&#x17D;ZQLH SU]\ SRJRGQ\FK L EH]ZLHWU] Q\FK QRFDFK : WDNLFK ZDUXQNDFK QD VWôSXMH RVLDGDQLH SRZLHWU]D D WR SUR ZDG]L GR Z\Mà WNRZR GXÅ&#x2022;HM NRQFHQWUDFML ]DQLHF]\V]F]HÄ¡ SRZLHWU]D Z ZDUVWZLH SU]\]LHPQHM 'ODWHJR QDOHÅ&#x2022;\ Gà Å&#x2022;\â GR PDNV\PDOQHJR ]PQLHMV]HQLD LFK HPLVML 2EV]DU EDGDZF]\ *Ã&#x17D;UQRÄ·Oà VNR =D JÄ&#x;ôELRZVND 0HWURSROLD REHMPXMH QDMEDUG]LHM ]XUEDQL]RZDQà L XSU]HP\ VÄ&#x;RZLRQà F]ôķâ 3ROVNL L UÃ&#x17D;ZQRF]HÄ·QLH MHGHQ ] QDMEDUG]LHM ]DQLHF]\V]F]RQ\FK REV]DUÃ&#x17D;Z Z (XURSLH ĶURGNRZHM 3UR MHNW SROHJD QD FLà JÄ&#x;\P PRQLWRULQJX Z\VWôSRZDQLD LQZHUVML WHPSHUDWXU\ Z VWXPHWURZHM SU]\]LHPQHM ZDUVWZLH SRZLHWU]D Z 6RVQRZFX 2EVHUZDFMH XGRVWôSQLDQH Và PLHV] NDÄ¡FRP QD VWURQLH LQWHUQHWRZHM KWWS PHWHR XV HGX SO LQZHUVMD

7HPSHUDWXUH LQYHUVLRQ WKDW LV UHYHUVDO RI QRUPDO WHPSHUDWXUH GURS ZLWK KHLJKW LV REVHUYHG PDLQO\ GXULQJ FOHDU DQG ZLQGOHVV QLJKWV ,Q VXFK FRQGLWLRQV WKH DLU VHWWOHV ZKLFK OHDGV WR H[FHSWLRQDOO\ ODUJH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI DLU SROOXWDQWV LQ WKH JURXQG OD\HU 7KHUHIRUH WKHLU HPLVVLRQ VKRXOG EH OLPLWHG DV PXFK DV SRVVLEOH 7KH DUHD FRYHUHG E\ WKH UHVHDUFK 0HWURSROL WDQ $VVRFLDWLRQ RI 8SSHU 6LOHVLD DQG 'Ã EURZD %DVLQ HQFRPSDVVHV WKH PRVW XUEDQLVHG DQG LQGXVWULDOLVHG SDUW RI 3RODQG DQG DW WKH VDPH WLPH RQH RI WKH PRVW SROOXWHG UHJLRQV LQ &HQWUDO (XURSH 7KH SURMHFW FRQVLVWV LQ FRQVWDQW PRQLWRULQJ RI WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI WHPSHUDWXUH LQYHUVLRQ LQ D RQH KXQGUHG PHWUH JURXQG DLU OD\HU LQ 6RVQRZLHF 7KH REVHUYDWLRQV DUH DYDLODEOH WR UHVLGHQWV RQOLQH DW KWWS PHWHR XV HGX SO LQZHUVMD

%DGDQLD SURZDG]L ]HVSÃ&#x17D;Ä&#x; SRG NLHURZQLFWZHP SURI ]Z GU KDE 7DGHXV]D 1LHGÅ&#x201C;ZLHG]LD NOLPDWRORJD HNVSHUWD Z ]D NUHVLH PHWHRURORJLL ] :\G]LD Ä&#x;X 1DXN R =LHPL 8Ķ

7KH UHVHDUFK LV FRQGXFWHG E\ D WHDP OHG E\ SURI ]Z GU KDE 7DGHXV] 1LHGÅ&#x201C;ZLHGÅ&#x201C; FOLPDWROR JLVW H[SHUW LQ PHWHRURORJ\ DW WKH )DFXOW\ RI (DUWK 6FLHQFHV RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

23

5HDNFMD RSDGÃ&#x17D;Z Ä·QLHJX L GHV]F]X QD ZVSÃ&#x17D;Ä&#x;F]HVQH ]PLDQ\ NOLPDWX L F\UNXODFMô DWPRVIHU\ Z (XURSLH

7KH UHDFWLRQ RI VQRZ DQG UDLQ SUHFLSLWDWLRQ WR FRQWHPSRUDU\ FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG DWPRVSKH ULF FLUFXODWLRQ LQ (XURSH

2SDG\ DWPRVIHU\F]QH Và NOXF]RZ\P HOHPHQWHP Z V\VWHPLH ]LHPVNLP GHF\GXMà F\P R SU]HELHJX ZLHOX SURFH VÃ&#x17D;Z Ä·URGRZLVNRZ\FK L ZDUXQNXMà F\P Å&#x2022;\FLH F]Ä&#x;RZLHND 5]DGNLH RSDG\ Ä·QLHJX L FRUD] PQLHMV]D SRNU\ZD Ä·QLHÅ&#x2022;QD PRJà Z]PRFQLâ RFLHSOHQLH NOLPDWX : ZLHOX PLHMVFDFK QD Ä·ZLHFLH RSDG\ Ä·QLHJX Và SRGVWDZRZ\P Å&#x201C;UÃ&#x17D;GÄ&#x;HP QDZDGQLDQLD XSUDZ RUD] ZRG\ SLWQHM 3RNU\ZD Ä·QLHÅ&#x2022;QD PD GXÅ&#x2022;H ]QDF]HQLH GOD ELODQVX HQHUJHW\F]QHJR =LHPL 3RQDGWR REƬ WH RSDG\ Ä·QLHJX PRJà SURZDG]Lâ GR Z\VWà SLHQLD SRZRG]L UR]WRSRZ\FK %DGDQLD ]PLHQQRÄ·FL RSD GÃ&#x17D;Z RUD] PHFKDQL]PÃ&#x17D;Z VWHUXMà F\FK W\PL ]PLDQDPL GRW\FKF]DV QLH E\Ä&#x;\ SURZDG]RQH Z VNDOL (XURS\ &HOHP SURMHNWX MHVW UR]SR]QDQLH ]PLHQQRÄ·FL L WUHQGÃ&#x17D;Z SRVWDFL RSDGÃ&#x17D;Z GHV]F]Ã&#x17D;Z Ä·QLHJX L ]MDZLVN SU]HMÄ·FLRZ\FK LFK UHDNFML QD ]PLDQ\ NOLPDWX RUD] UHODFML ] F\UNXODFMà DWPRVIHU\ Z FDÄ&#x;HM (XURSLH ]H V]F]HJÃ&#x17D;OQ\P XZ]JOôGQLHQLHP (XUR S\ ĶURGNRZHM

3UHFLSLWDWLRQ LV WKH NH\ HOHPHQW LQ WKH (DUWKoV V\VWHP GHƬ QLQJ WKH FRXUVH RI PDQ\ HQYLURQPHQWDO SURFHVVHV DQG GHWHUPLQLQJ KXPDQ OLIH 5DUH VQRZIDOOV DQG GLPLQLVKLQJ VQRZ FRYHU PD\ LQWHQVLI\ JOREDO ZDUPLQJ ,Q PDQ\ SODFHV WKURXJKRXW WKH ZRUOG VQRZ LV WKH EDVLF VRXUFH RI FURS LUULJDWLRQ DQG GULQNLQJ ZDWHU 6QRZ FRYHU SOD\V DQ LPSRUWDQW UROH LQ WKH (DUWKoV HQHUJ\ EDODQFH 0RUHRYHU KHDY\ VQRZIDOOV PD\ OHDG WR PHOWZDWHU Ʈ RRGV 1R UHVHDUFK KDV VR IDU EHHQ FRQGXFWHG LQ (XURSH RQ WKH YDULDELOLW\ RI SUHFL SLWDWLRQ DQG WKH PHFKDQLVPV EHKLQG WKRVH YDULDWLRQV 7KH REMHFWLYH RI WKH SURMHFW LV WR LGHQWLI\ WKH YDULDELOLW\ DQG WUHQGV LQ WKH SUHFLSLWDWLRQ IRUPV UDLQ VQRZ DQG WUDQVLWRU\ SKHQRPHQD

WKHLU UHDFWLRQ WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG UHODWLRQV ZLWK WKH DWPRVSKHULF FLUFXOD WLRQ DFURVV WKH ZKROH RI (XURSH ZLWK SDUWLFXODU HPSKDVLV RQ &HQWUDO (XURSH

.LHURZQLNLHP ]HVSRÄ&#x;X EDGDZ F]HJR MHVW GU KDE SURI 8Ķ (ZD Ä&#x17E;XSLNDV]D NOLPDWRORJ HNVSHUW Z ]DNUHVLH HNVWUH PDOQ\FK RSDGÃ&#x17D;Z DWPRVIH U\F]Q\FK L SRZRG]L SUDFRZQLN :\G]LDÄ&#x;X 1DXN R =LHPL 8Ķ

24

7KH KHDG RI WKH UHVHDUFK WHDP LV GU KDE SURI 8Ķ (ZD Ä&#x17E;XSLND V]D FOLPDWRORJLVW DQG H[SHUW LQ WKH Ƭ HOG RI H[WUHPH SUHFLSL WDWLRQ DQG Æ® RRG HPSOR\HH RI WKH )DFXOW\ RI (DUWK 6FLHQFHV RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

:SÄ&#x;\Z ZDUXQNÃ&#x17D;Z PHWHRUROR JLF]Q\FK QD ]PLHQQRķâ Z\VWô SRZDQLD DOHUJHQQHJR S\Ä&#x;NX Z\EUDQ\FK URÄ·OLQ Z 6RVQRZFX s

7KH Hƪ HFW RI PHWHRURORJLFDO FRQGLWLRQV RQ WKH YDULDELOLW\ RI RFFXUUHQFH RI DOOHUJHQLF SROOHQV IURP VHOHFWHG SODQWV LQ 6RVQRZLHF s

:DUXQNL DWPRVIHU\F]QH PDMà GXÅ&#x2022;\ ZSÄ&#x;\Z QD S\OHQLH URÄ·OLQ NWÃ&#x17D;UH MHVW SU]\F]\Qà ZLHOX DOHUJLL %DGDQLH WHM ]DOHÅ&#x2022;QRÄ·FL E\Ä&#x;R PRÅ&#x2022;OLZH G]LôNL ZLHOR OHWQLHM REVHUZDFML ORNDOQ\FK ZDUXQNÃ&#x17D;Z SRJRGRZ\FK SURZDG]RQH Z VWDFML PHWHRURORJLF]QHM SU]\ :\G]LDOH 1DXN R =LHPL Z 6RVQRZFX L UÃ&#x17D;ZQROHJÄ&#x;H QRWR ZDQLH WHJR MDN Z\JOà GDÄ&#x; VH]RQ S\OHQLD OHV]F]\Q\ ROV]\ MHVLRQX EU]R]\ GôEX WUDZ V]F]DZLX SRNU]\Z\ L E\OLF\ -DN SRND]DÄ&#x;\ EDGDQLD QDMZLôNV]\ ZSÄ&#x;\Z QD S\OHQLH PLDÄ&#x;D WHPSHUDWXUD SRZLH WU]D 7DNÅ&#x2022;H LQWHQV\ZQRķâ SRNU\Z\ Ä·QLHÅ&#x2022;QHM GHF\GRZDÄ&#x;D R NRQFHQWUDFML ]LDUHQ S\Ä&#x;NX Z SU]\SDGNX OHV]F]\Q\ L ROV]\ : UH]XOWDFLH EDGDÄ¡ XGDÄ&#x;R VLô XVWDOLâ SU]\ MDNLHM WHPSHUDWXU]H S\OH QLH UR]SRF]\QDMà GDQH URÄ·OLQ\ 2ND]DÄ&#x;R VLô Å&#x2022;H QDMEDUG]LHM QLHW\SRZ\P L VNRP SOLNRZDQ\P SU]HELHJLHP s Z GXÅ&#x2022;\P VWRSQLX QLH]DOHÅ&#x2022;Q\P RG ZDUXQNÃ&#x17D;Z PHWHRURORJLF]Q\FK s FKDUDNWHU\]RZD Ä&#x;\ VLô EU]R]D L E\OLFD

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s ODUJHO\ LQGHSHQGHQW RI PHWHRURORJL FDO FRQGLWLRQV s ZDV H[KLELWHG E\ ELUFK DQG VDJHEUXVK

3URMHNW ]UHDOL]RZDÄ&#x;D GU .D WDU]\QD 'à EURZVND =DSDUW DHURELRORJ ] :\G]LDÄ&#x;X 1DXN R =LHPL 8Ķ

26

7KH SURMHFW ZDV FDUULHG RXW E\ GU .DWDU]\QD 'Ã EURZVND =D SDUW DHURELRORJLVW DW WKH )DFXO W\ RI (DUWK 6FLHQFHV RI 8QLYHUVL W\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

3RUÃ&#x17D;ZQDQLH ]PLHQQRÄ·FL ZD UXQNÃ&#x17D;Z WHUPLF]Q\FK Z RVWDW QLP W\VLà FOHFLX Z JÃ&#x17D;UDFK $]ML ĶURGNRZHM L (XURS\ ĶURGNRZHM

&RPSDULVRQ RI YDULDELOLW\ LQ WKHUPDO FRQGLWLRQV LQ WKH ODVW PLOOHQQLXP LQ WKH PRXQWDLQV RI &HQWUDO $VLD DQG &HQWUDO (XURSH

: ZDUXQNDFK VXFKHJR NRQW\QHQWDOQH JR NOLPDWX $]ML ĶURGNRZHM QDMZLôNV]\ ZSÄ&#x;\Z QD URF]QH SU]\URVW\ GU]HZ PDMà RSDG\ DWPRVIHU\F]QH : JÃ&#x17D;UDFK (XUR S\ ĶURGNRZHM GHF\GXMà F\P F]\QQLNLHP Z W\P Z]JOôG]LH MHVW QDWRPLDVW WHPSH UDWXUD SRZLHWU]D 5HDOL]RZDQ\ SURMHNW XPRÅ&#x2022;OLZLÄ&#x; UHNRQVWUXNFMô L SRUÃ&#x17D;ZQDQLH ZDUXQNÃ&#x17D;Z WHUPLF]Q\FK L RSDGRZ\FK RVWDWQLHJR W\VLà FOHFLD Z JÃ&#x17D;UDFK W\FK GZÃ&#x17D;FK REV]DUÃ&#x17D;Z 0LHMVFHP EDGDÄ¡ E\Ä&#x;\ RNROLFH ]DFKRGQLHJR 3DPLUR $Ä&#x;DMX Z *Ã&#x17D;UDFK =HUDZV]DÄ¡VNLFK Z 7DGÅ&#x2022;\NL VWDQLH JG]LH PRÅ&#x2022;OLZH E\Ä&#x;R SREUDQLH SUÃ&#x17D;E VÄ&#x;RMÃ&#x17D;Z URF]Q\FK SU]\URVWÃ&#x17D;Z GU]HZ ]D RNUHV W\VLà FOHWQL 8]\VNDQH Z\QLNL SR]ZROLÄ&#x;\ QD OHSV]H SR]QDQLH ]PLDQ NOLPDWX (XURS\ L $]ML Z RVWDWQLP W\VLà FOHFLX

,Q WKH FRQGLWLRQV RI WKH GU\ FRQWLQHQWDO FOLPDWH RI &HQWUDO $VLD LW LV SUHFLSLWD WLRQ WKDW KDV WKH JUHDWHVW LQÆ®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

: PLôG]\QDURGRZ\P SURMHN FLH ]HVSRÄ&#x;RZ\P SRG NLHUXQ NLHP SURI ]Z GU KDE 7DGH XV]D 1LHGÅ&#x201C;ZLHG]LD SUDFXMà P LQ SURI GU KDE 2LPDKPDG 5DKPRQRY GU 0DJGDOHQD 2SDÄ&#x;D 2ZF]DUHN L GU Ä&#x17E;XNDV] 0DÄ&#x;DU]HZVNL ] :\G]LDÄ&#x;X 1DXN R =LHPL 8Ķ

7KH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO WHDP SURMHFW LV FRRUGLQDWHG E\ SURI ]Z GU KDE 7DGHXV] 1LHGÅ&#x201C;ZLHGÅ&#x201C; DQG LWV PHPEHUV LQFOXGH SURI GU KDE 2LPDKPDG 5DKPRQRY GU 0DJGDOHQD 2SDÄ&#x;D 2ZF]D UHN DQG GU Ä&#x17E;XNDV] 0DÄ&#x;DU]HZVNL IURP WKH )DFXOW\ RI (DUWK 6FLHQ FHV RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

27

2FHQD LORÄ·FL L VNÄ&#x;DGX FKHPLF] QHJR ]DQLHF]\V]F]HÄ¡ HPLWRZD Q\FK SRGF]DV SURFHVÃ&#x17D;Z VD PR]DJU]HZDQLD VLô RGSDGÃ&#x17D;Z ZôJORZ\FK V\PXORZDQ\FK SLUROL]à ZRGQà L EH]ZRGQà RUD] Z\VRNRWHPSHUDWXURZ\P XWOHQLDQLHP

$VVHVVPHQW RI WKH TXDQWLW\ DQG FKHPLFDO FRPSRVLWLRQ RI SROOXWDQWV HPLWWHG GXULQJ WKH VHOI KHDWLQJ RI FRDO ZDVWH VLPXODWHG E\ K\GURXV DQG QRQ K\GURXV S\URO\VLV DV ZHOO DV E\ KLJK WHPSHUDWXUH R[\JHQDWLRQ

+DÄ&#x;G\ F]\OL VNÄ&#x;DGRZLVND RGSDGÃ&#x17D;Z SR HNVSORDWDFML ZôJOD VWDÄ&#x;\ VLô F]ôķFLà ķOà VNLHJR NUDMREUD]X =QDMGXMà FD VLô WDP PDWHULD SRGOHJD ZLHOX ZWÃ&#x17D;UQ\P SURFHVRP SRZRGXMà F SRZVWDQLH V]NRGOLZ\FK JD]Ã&#x17D;Z D WDNÅ&#x2022;H SU]H GRVWDZDQLH VLô GR JOHE\ VXEVWDQFML UR]SXV]F]DQ\FK SU]H] ZRGô %DGDQLD VNÄ&#x;DGRZLVN UR]SRF]\QDMà VLô Z ODER UDWRULXP RG V\PXODFML VSRQWDQLF]Q\FK L FKDRW\F]Q\FK SURFHVÃ&#x17D;Z ]DFKR G]à F\FK ZHZQà WU] VNÄ&#x;DGRZLVND 3R XZ]JOôGQLHQLX ]PLHQQ\FK ZDUXQNÃ&#x17D;Z WDNLFK MDN GRVWôS WOHQX L ZRG\ DOER W\S VNDÄ&#x;\ PRÅ&#x2022;QD X]\VNDâ SHÄ&#x;Q\ REUD]X URG]DMX L LORÄ·FL VXEVWDQFML RUJDQLF]Q\FK Z\G]LHODQ\FK GR SRZLHWU]D L ZÃ&#x17D;G %DGDQLD SRNDÅ&#x2022;à MDN GRFKRG]L GR VDPR ]DJU]HZDQLD RGSDGÃ&#x17D;Z SRZôJORZ\FK L HPLVML ]DQLHF]\V]F]HÄ¡ GR Ä·URGRZLVND 7R XPRÅ&#x2022;OLZL QDXNRZFRP V]DFRZDQLH LORÄ·FL ]DQLHF]\V]F]HÄ¡ Z\GRE\ZDMà F\ VLô ]H VNÄ&#x;DGRZLVN D SÃ&#x17D;Å&#x201C;QLHM RSUDFRZD QLD SURJUDPÃ&#x17D;Z SU]HFLZG]LDÄ&#x;DQLD W\P ]DQLHF]\V]F]HQLRP

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

.LHURZQLNLHP SURMHNWX MHVW GU KDE 0RQLND )DELDÄ¡VND SUDFRZQLN .DWHGU\ *HRFKH PLL 0LQHUDORJLL L 3HWURJUDƬ L :\G]LDÄ&#x;X 1DXN R =LHPL 8Ķ

28

7KH KHDG RI WKH SURMHFW LV GU KDE 0RQLND )DELDÄ¡VND HP SOR\HH DW WKH 'HSDUWPHQW RI *HRFKHPLVWU\ 0LQHUDORJ\ DQG 3HWURJUDSK\ RI WKH )DFXOW\ RI (DUWK 6FLHQFHV RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/ß6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

29

:SÄ&#x;\Z SRÅ&#x2022;DUÃ&#x17D;Z NRSDOQ\FK QD VNÄ&#x;DG JHRFKHPLF]Q\ L PLQHUDO Q\ VNDÄ&#x; ZôJORQRÄ·Q\FK Z F]ôķFL *Ã&#x17D;UQRÄ·Oà VNLHJR =DJÄ&#x;ôELD :ôJORZHJR

,QƮ XHQFH RI IRVVLO Ƭ UHV RQ WKH JHRFKHPLFDO DQG PLQHUDO FRPSRVLWLRQ RI FDUERQLIHURXV URFNV LQ SDUW RI WKH 8SSHU 6LOHVLDQ &RDO %DVLQ

6NDÄ&#x;\ SVWUH WR Z\VWôSXMà FH ORNDOQLH Z SRÄ&#x;XGQLRZR ]DFKRGQLHM F]ôķFL *Ã&#x17D;UQRÄ·Oà VNLHJR =DJÄ&#x;ôELD :ôJORZHJR VNDÄ&#x;\ R ZLHOREDUZQ\P ]DEDUZLHQLX 7RZDU]\V]à RQH ]DQLNDMà F\P SRNÄ&#x;D GRP ZôJOD ,FK SRFKRG]HQLH QLH MHVW MHGQDN GR NRÄ¡FD Z\MDÄ·QLRQH 6NDÄ&#x;\ WH PRJÄ&#x;\ XWZRU]\â VLô Z NRQWDNFLH ] LQ WUX]MDPL PDJPRZ\PL Eà GÅ&#x201C; QD VNXWHN Z\SDOHQLD SRNÄ&#x;DGÃ&#x17D;Z ZôJOD Z SU]H V]Ä&#x;RÄ·FL JHRORJLF]QHM -HGQR ] ]DÄ&#x;RÅ&#x2022;HÄ¡ ]DNÄ&#x;DGD Å&#x2022;H VWDQRZLà RQH SR]RVWDÄ&#x;Rķâ SR SRNÄ&#x;DGDFK WRUIX Z\SDORQ\FK MHV]F]H Z NDUERQLH &HOHP SURMHNWX MHVW SU]HGVWDZLHQLH ZLHORDVSHNWRZHM FKDUDNWHU\VW\NL Z\VWôSXMà F\FK Z UHMR QLH ]DQLNDMà F\FK SRNÄ&#x;DGÃ&#x17D;Z ZôJOD VNDÄ&#x; ZôJORQRÄ·Q\FK RUD] QDGOHJÄ&#x;\FK LP VNDÄ&#x; SVWU\FK %DGDQLD SURZDG]RQH Và QD SDOà F\FK VLô REHFQLH OXE Z SU]HV]Ä&#x;RÄ·FL KDÄ&#x;GDFK 7DND DQDOL]D SRZLQQD GRVWDU F]\â LQIRUPDFMH SR]ZDODMà FH UR]SR]QDâ SU]\F]\Qô UHGXNFML SRNÄ&#x;DGÃ&#x17D;Z ZôJOD

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

'U KDE -XVW\QD &LHVLHOF]XN MHVW JHRORJLHP ] :\G]LDÄ&#x;X 1DXNL R =LHPL 8Ķ 6SHFMDOL]X MH VLô Z EDGDQLDFK ]ZDÄ&#x;RZLVN RGSDGÃ&#x17D;Z SU]HP\VÄ&#x;X FLôÅ&#x2022;NLHJR OXE SRJÃ&#x17D;UQLF]\FK

30

'U KDE -XVW\QD &LHVLHOF]XN LV D JHRORJLVW DW WKH )DFXOW\ RI (DUWK 6FLHQFHV RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH 6KH VSH FLDOLVHV LQ UHVHDUFK RQ GXPSLQJ JURXQGV ZLWK KHDY\ LQGXVWU\ DQG SRVW PLQLQJ ZDVWH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

&/,0$5. s 7RZDUGV DQ LQWHJUDWHG IUDPHZRUN IRU FOLPDWH FKDQJH LPSDFW DVVHVVPHQWV IRU LQWHUQDWLRQDO PDUNHW V\VWHPV ZLWK ORQJ WHUP LQYHVWPHQWV

: ZDUXQNDFK ZVSÃ&#x17D;Ä&#x;F]HVQHJR RFLHSOH QLD NOLPDWX QDVWôSXMH SU]\VSLHV]HQLH WHUPLQX NZLWQLHQLD GU]HZ RZRFRZ\FK FR SDUDGRNVDOQLH ]ZLôNV]D ]DJURÅ&#x2022;HQLH SU]\PUR]NDPL :SÄ&#x;\Z ]PLDQ NOLPDWX QD NV]WDÄ&#x;WRZDQLH VLô SURGXNFML U\QNR ZHM EDGDÄ&#x; PLôG]\QDURGRZ\ ]HVSÃ&#x17D;Ä&#x; NOL PDWRORJÃ&#x17D;Z UROQLNÃ&#x17D;Z L HNRQRPLVWÃ&#x17D;Z $QDOL]\ SURZDG]RQH QD SU]\NÄ&#x;DG]LH XSUDZ ZLÄ·QL Z VWDQLH 0LFKLJDQ 86$

L Z NLONX NUDMDFK HXURSHMVNLFK VÄ&#x;XÅ&#x2022;\Ä&#x;\ XVWDOHQLX PRÅ&#x2022;OLZRÄ·FL UHDJRZDQLD RUD] VWHURZDQLD W\P U\QNLHP QD SRGVWDZLH SU]HZLG\ZDQ\FK ]PLDQ NOLPDWX =D GDQLHP QDXNRZFÃ&#x17D;Z ] 8Ķ E\Ä&#x;D RFHQD ZDUXQNÃ&#x17D;Z NOLPDW\F]Q\FK XSUDZ ZLÄ·QL Z 3ROVFH RUD] SURJQR]RZDQLH ZV]HO NLFK ]DJURÅ&#x2022;HÄ¡ MDNLH PRJà VNXWNRZDâ VSDGNLHP SURGXNFML V]NRG\ PUR]RZH SU]\PUR]NL Z F]DVLH NZLWQLHQLD QDGPLHUQH RSDG\ LWS 2V]DFRZDQH ]RVWDÄ&#x;\ WDNÅ&#x2022;H WHQGHQFMH ]PLDQ ZD UXQNÃ&#x17D;Z NOLPDW\F]Q\FK L LFK ZSÄ&#x;\Z QD NV]WDÄ&#x;WRZDQLH SORQÃ&#x17D;Z

.LHURZQLNLHP ]HVSRÄ&#x;X EDGDZ F]HJR MHVW SURI ]Z GU KDE 7DGHXV] 1LHGÅ&#x201C;ZLHGÅ&#x201C; NOLPD WRORJ HNVSHUW Z ]DNUHVLH PHWHRURORJLL ] :\G]LDÄ&#x;X 1DXN R =LHPL 8Ķ

32

,Q WKH FRQGLWLRQV RI SUHVHQW GD\ FOLPD WH ZDUPLQJ IUXLW WUHHV VWDUW EORRPLQJ HDUOLHU ZKLFK SDUDGR[LFDOO\ LQFUHDVHV WKH ULVN RI IURVW 7KH LQÆ®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Æ® XHQFH RQ WKH VKDSLQJ RI FURSV ZHUH DOVR DVVHVVHG

7KH KHDG RI WKH UHVHDUFK WHDP LV SURI ]Z GU KDE 7DGHXV] 1LHGÅ&#x201C;ZLHGÅ&#x201C; FOLPDWRORJLVW H[SHUW LQ PHWHRURORJ\ DW WKH )DFXOW\ RI (DUWK 6FLHQFHV RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

3RWHQFMDÄ&#x; ]ELRUQLNÃ&#x17D;Z ZRGQ\FK NRQXUEDFML Ä·OÃ VNR GÃ EURZVNLHM Z Ä&#x;DJRG]HQLX VNXWNÃ&#x17D;Z ]PLDQ NOLPDWX

7KH SRWHQWLDO RI ZDWHU UHVH UYRLUV RI WKH 6LOHVLDQ 'Ã EURZD FRQXUEDWLRQ LQ DOOHYLDWLQJ WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH

.RQXUEDFMD Ä·Oà VNR Gà EURZVND G\VSR QXMH QLH]Z\NOH GXÅ&#x2022;à OLF]Eà ]ELRUQLNÃ&#x17D;Z ZRGQ\FK 7HQ QDWXUDOQ\ SRWHQFMDÄ&#x; PRÅ&#x2022;H E\â Z\NRU]\VWDQ\ GR SU]HFLZ G]LDÄ&#x;DQLD VNXWNRP ]PLDQ NOLPDW\F] Q\FK WDNLP MDN ]DJURÅ&#x2022;HQLH SRZRG]LR ZH L SRÅ&#x2022;DURZH RJUDQLF]HQLH ]DVREÃ&#x17D;Z ZRGQ\FK L SRJRUV]HQLH LFK MDNRÄ·FL %DGDQLD ]ELRUQLND 3DSURFDQ\ NWÃ&#x17D;UH UHDOL]XMH ]HVSÃ&#x17D;Ä&#x; EDGDF]\ SUDFXMà F\FK Z ĶOà VNLP &HQWUXP :RG\ SRND]XMH Å&#x2022;H ZÄ&#x;DÄ·FLZH JRVSRGDURZDQLH ]DVREDPL ZRGQ\PL Z ]ELRUQLNDFK UR]VLDQ\FK QD REV]DU]H NRQXUEDFML PRÅ&#x2022;H ]UHGXNRZDâ ]QDF]QLH SR]LRP U\]\ND =ELRUQLN WHQ PRGHORZDQR ] XÅ&#x2022;\FLHP PRGHOX HNR V\VWHPRZHJR $(0 ' XZ]JOôGQLDMà F UÃ&#x17D;Å&#x2022;QH VFHQDULXV]H NOLPDW\F]QH $QDOL]\ SRND]XMà Å&#x2022;H ZÄ&#x;DÄ·FLZH ]DU]à G]DQLH ]ELRUQLNDPL ZRGQ\PL PRÅ&#x2022;H RJUDQLF]Dâ OXE VNXWHF]QLH SU]HFLZG]LDÄ&#x;Dâ SRWHQ FMDOQ\P ]DJURÅ&#x2022;HQLRP NOLPDW\F]Q\P

7KH 6LOHVLDQ 'à EURZD FRQXUEDWLRQ KDV DQ H[WUHPHO\ ODUJH QXPEHU RI ZDWHU ERGLHV 7KLV QDWXUDO SRWHQWLDO FDQ EH XVHG IRU FRXQWHUDFWLQJ WKH Hƪ HFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH VXFK DV WKH ULVN RI Ʈ RRGV DQG Ƭ UHV UHVWULFWLRQ RI ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV RU GHWHULRUDWLRQ LQ WKHLU TXDOLW\ 7KH H[DPLQDWLRQV RI WKH 3DSURFDQ\ ZDWHU ERG\ ZKLFK DUH FDUULHG RXW E\ D WHDP RI UHVHDU FKHUV IURP WKH 6LOHVLDQ :DWHU &HQWUH VKRZ WKDW SURSHU PDQDJHPHQW RI ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV LQ ZDWHU ERGLHV VFDWWHUHG DFURVV WKH FRQXUEDWLRQ PD\ VLJQLƬ FDQWO\ UHGXFH WKLV ULVN 7KLV ERG\ RI ZDWHU ZDV PRGHOOHG XVLQJ WKH $(0 ' HFRV\VWHPLF PRGHO WDNLQJ LQWR DFFRXQW YDULRXV FOLPDWLF VFHQDULRV $QDO\VHV GHPRQVWUDWH WKDW SURSHU PDQDJHPHQW RI ZDWHU ERGLHV FDQ OLPLW RU Hƪ HFWLYHO\ FRXQWHUDFW WKH SRWHQWLDO FOLPDWLF ULVNV

ĶOà VNLH &HQWUXP :RG\ WR PLôG]\Z\G]LDÄ&#x;RZ\ ]HVSÃ&#x17D;Ä&#x; ED GDZF]\ SURZDG]à F\ G]LDÄ&#x;DO QRķâ EDGDZF]à UR]ZRMRZà ZGURÅ&#x2022;HQLRZà SRSXODU\]DWRU VNà L G\GDNW\F]Qà ]ZLà ]DQà ] ZRGDPL L JRVSRGDUNà ZRG Qà '\UHNWRUHP &HQWUXP MHVW GU $QGU]HM :RÅ&#x201C;QLFD ] :\G]LD Ä&#x;X %LRORJLL L 2FKURQ\ ĶURGRZLVND 8Ķ

34

7KH 6LOHVLDQ :DWHU &HQWUH LV DQ LQWHUIDFXOW\ UHVHDUFK WHDP FRQ GXFWLQJ UHVHDUFK GHYHORSPHQW LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ SRSXODULVDWLRQ DQG GLGDFWLF DFWLYLWLHV UHODWHG WR ZDWHU ERGLHV DQG ZDWHU PD QDJHPHQW 7KH GLUHFWRU RI WKH &HQWUH LV GU $QGU]HM :RÅ&#x201C;QLFD IURP WKH )DFXOW\ RI %LRORJ\ DQG (QYLURQPHQWDO 3URWHFWLRQ RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

)/25,67 s )ORRG ULVN RQ WKH QRUWKHUQ IRRWKLOOV RI WKH 7DWUD 0RXQWDLQV

: ZDUXQNDFK JOREDOQHJR RFLHSOHQLD Z]UDVWD U\]\NR SRZRG]LRZH SU]\ MHGQRF]HVQ\P ]DJURÅ&#x2022;HQLX SU]H] VXV]H Z LQQ\FK REV]DUDFK 3U]\NÄ&#x;DGHP PRÅ&#x2022;H E\â RVWDWQL VH]RQ OHWQL URNX ] GXÅ&#x2022;à SRZRG]Là Z OLSFX Z 7DWUDFK L *RUFDFK SU]\ NDWDVWURIDOQ\FK VXV]DFK ZH ZVFKRGQLHM F]ôķFL .DUSDW L Z LQQ\FK UHJLRQDFK 3ROVNL 2EVHUZDFMH L DQDOL]D F]\QQLNÃ&#x17D;Z WDNLFK MDN FKDUDNWHU XÅ&#x2022;\WNR ZDQLD ]LHPL F]\ PDJD]\QRZDQLH ZRG\ Z ]OHZQL SR]ZDODMà QD RFHQô U\]\ND SRZRG]LRZHJR =DÄ&#x;RÅ&#x2022;HQLHP SURMHNWX MHVW ]ZLôNV]HQLH ]DVREX LQIRUPDFML R SRZRG]LDFK L SURFHVLH LFK WZRU]HQLD P LQ QD SRGVWDZLH UHNRQVWUXNFML FKDUDNWHU\VW\N GDZQ\FK SRZRG]L

D Z HIHNFLH VWZRU]HQLH PRÅ&#x2022;OLZ\FK VFHQDULXV]\ ]PLDQ Z\VWôSRZDQLD HNVWUHPDOQ\FK RSDGÃ&#x17D;Z 'RFHORZR EDGDF]H Gà Å&#x2022;à GR RFHQ\ U\]\ND Z\VWà SLHQLD SRZRG]L QD WHUHQLH SÃ&#x17D;Ä&#x;QRFQHJR SRJÃ&#x17D;U]D 7DWU

.LHURZQLNLHP ]HVSRÄ&#x;X EDGDZ F]HJR MHVW SURI ]Z GU KDE 7DGHXV] 1LHGÅ&#x201C;ZLHGÅ&#x201C; NOLPD WRORJ HNVSHUW Z ]DNUHVLH PHWHRURORJLL ] :\G]LDÄ&#x;X 1DXN R =LHPL 8Ķ

7KH JOREDO ZDUPLQJ FRQGLWLRQV DUH UHVSRQVLEOH IRU LQFUHDVLQJ Æ® RRG ULVN ZKLOH SRVLQJ D GURXJKW UHODWHG WKUHDW WR RWKHU UHJLRQV )RU H[DPSOH WKH ODVW VXPPHU VHDVRQ RI EURXJKW KHDY\ Æ® RRGV LQ WKH 7DWUD DQG *RUFH 0RXQ WDLQV DQG GLVDVWURXV GURXJKWV LQ WKH HDVWHUQ SDUW RI WKH &DUSDWKLDQV DQG RWKHU UHJLRQV RI 3RODQG 7KH REVHUYD WLRQ DQG DQDO\VLV RI VXFK IDFWRUV DV WKH QDWXUH RI ODQG XVH RU ZDWHU VWRUDJH LQ WKH FDWFKPHQW DUHD PDNH LW SRVVLEOH WR DVVHVV WKH UHODWHG Æ® RRG ULVN 7KH DVVXPSWLRQ EHKLQG WKH SURMHFW LV WR LQFUHDVH WKH DPRXQW RI LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW Æ® RRGV DQG WKH SURFHVV RI WKHLU IRUPDWLRQ DPRQJVW RWKHUV EDVHG RQ UHFRQVWUXFWLQJ WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI SDVW Æ® RRGV WKHUHE\ FUHDWLQJ WKH SR VVLEOH VFHQDULRV IRU WKH FKDQJHV LQ WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI H[WUHPH SUHFLSLWDWLRQ 7KH UHVHDUFKHUV XOWLPDWHO\ VHHN WR DVVHVV WKH Æ® RRG ULVN RQ WKH QRUWKHUQ IRRWKLOOV RI WKH 7DWUD 0RXQWDLQV

7KH KHDG RI WKH UHVHDUFK WHDP LV SURI ]Z GU KDE 7DGHXV] 1LHGÅ&#x201C;ZLHGÅ&#x201C; FOLPDWRORJLVW DQG H[SHUW LQ WKH Ƭ HOG RI PHWH RURORJ\ DW WKH )DFXOW\ RI (DUWK 6FLHQFHV RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

35

1RZH QDU]ôG]LH GR Z\NU\ ZDQLD DNW\ZQ\FK VWRNÃ&#x17D;Z RVXZLVNRZ\FK SRGVWDZà GR UDFMRQDOQHJR SODQRZDQLD SU]HVWU]HQQHJR Z REV]DUDFK JÃ&#x17D;UVNLFK

$ QHZ WRRO IRU GHWHFWLQJ DFWLYH ODQGVOLGH VORSHV DV WKH EDVLV IRU UDWLRQDO VSDWLDO SODQQLQJ LQ PRXQWDLQ DUHDV

=QDOH]LHQLH PHWRG\ NWÃ&#x17D;UD SR]ZROL QD UR]SR]QDQLH WHUHQÃ&#x17D;Z PRJà F\FK E\â RVXZLVNDPL MHVW QLH]Z\NOH LVWRWQH GOD SODQRZDQLD SU]HVWU]HQQHJR 3RGF]DV EDGDÄ¡ RND]DÄ&#x;R VLô Å&#x2022;H UXFK\ RVXZL VNRZH JUXQWX PRJà E\â ]DSLV\ZDQH Z GU]HZDFK 3R SRFK\OHQLX GU]HZD Z\NV]WDÄ&#x;FDMà QLHUÃ&#x17D;ZQHM ZLHONRÄ·FL SU]\ URVW\ URF]QH VÄ&#x;RMH Z\VWôSXMà FH Z RVL SRFK\OHQLD ']LôNL Z\FLà JDQLX UG]HQL ] GU]HZ L DQDOL]LH LFK VÄ&#x;RMÃ&#x17D;Z MHVWHÄ·P\ Z VWDQLH VWZLHUG]Lâ LOH UD]\ L ] MDNà VLÄ&#x;à Z FLà JX RVWDWQLFK NLONXG]LHVLôFLX ODW GRV]Ä&#x;R GR UXFKÃ&#x17D;Z RVXZLVNRZ\FK JUXQ WX 'U]HZD SRWUDƬ à ]DWHP LQIRUPRZDâ R DNW\ZQRÄ·FL RVXZLVNRZHM JUXQWX Z FLà JX RVWDWQLFK NLONXG]LHVLôFLX ODW Z ]DOHÅ&#x2022;QRÄ·FL RG ZLHNX GU]HZRVWDQX &HFKD WD ]RVWDÄ&#x;D Z\NRU]\VWDQD ZH ZVSÃ&#x17D;Ä&#x;SUDF\ ] JPLQà 0LOÃ&#x17D;ZND GOD NWÃ&#x17D;UHM SRZVWDÄ&#x;D PDSD ]DJURÅ&#x2022;HQLD RVX ZLVNRZHJR D WDNÅ&#x2022;H SURJUDP NRPSXWH URZ\ GR DXWRPDW\F]QHJR Z\NU\ZDQLD UXFKÃ&#x17D;Z RVXZLVNRZ\FK

)LQGLQJ D PHWKRG IRU LGHQWLI\LQJ WKH DUHDV VXVFHSWLEOH WR ODQGVOLGHV LV H[WUHPHO\ LPSRUWDQW LQ VSDWLDO SODQQLQJ 7KH UHVHDUFK UHYHDOHG WKDW ODQGVOLGH PRYHPHQWV FDQ EH UHFRUGHG LQ WUHHV 7LWOHG WUHHV GHYHORS DQQXDO JURZWK WUHH ULQJV RI XQHYHQ VL]H RF FXUULQJ LQ WKH WLOW D[LV %\ UHPRYLQJ WKH KHDUWZRRG DQG DQDO\VLQJ LWV ULQJV ZH DUH DEOH WR GHWHUPLQH WKH QXPEHU DQG PDJQLWXGH RI ODQGVOLGH PRYHPHQWV RYHU WKH SDVW VHYHUDO GHFDGHV 7UHHV FDQ WKHUHIRUH SURYLGH LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH ODQGVOLGH DFWLYLW\ RI D JLYHQ ODQG RYHU WKH SDVW VHYHUDO GHFDGHV GH SHQGLQJ RQ WKH DJH RI WKH WUHH VWDQG 7KLV IHDWXUH ZDV XVHG LQ FRRSHUDWLRQ ZLWK WKH 0LOÃ&#x17D;ZND FRPPXQH IRU ZKLFK D ODQGVOLGH KD]DUG PDS ZDV FUHDWHG DV ZHOO DV D FRPSXWHU SURJUDPPH IRU DXWRPDWLF GHWHFWLRQ RI ODQGVOLGH PRYHPHQWV

.LHURZQLNLHP SURMHNWX MHVW SURI GU KDE ,UHQHXV] 0DOLN NLHURZQLN .DWHGU\ 5HNRQ VWUXNFML ĶURGRZLVND *HRJUD Ƭ F]QHJR :\G]LDÄ&#x;X 1DXN R =LHPL 8Ķ

36

7KH KHDG RI WKH SURMHFW LV SURI GU KDE ,UHQHXV] 0DOLN GLUHFWRU RI WKH 'HSDUWPHQW RI (QYLURQ PHQWDO 5HFRQVWUXFWLRQ RI WKH )DFXOW\ RI (DUWK 6FLHQFHV RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

2NUHÄ·OHQLH SU]HELHJX HZROXFML VWRNÃ&#x17D;Z SRÄ&#x;XGQLRZHJR 6SLWV EHUJHQX QD WOH ]PLDQ NOLPDWX

'HWHUPLQDWLRQ RI WKH FRXUVH RI HYROXWLRQ RI VRXWKHUQ 6SLWVEHUJHQ VORSHV DJDLQVW D EDFNJURXQG RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH

:DUXQNL NOLPDW\F]QH SDQXMà FH REHFQLH QD 6SLWVEHUJHQLH SRGREQH Và GR W\FK NWÃ&#x17D;UH ODW WHPX SDQRZDÄ&#x;\ Z 3RO VFH s WHPSHUDWXUD U]DGNR SU]HNUDF]D NLOND VWRSQL SRZ\Å&#x2022;HM ]LP\ Và PURÅ&#x201C;QH L Ä·QLHÅ&#x2022;QH :\NRU]\VWXMà F WR SU]HVXQLô WH Z F]DVLH SRGRELHÄ¡VWZR NOLPDW\F]QH QDXNRZF\ EDGDMà REV]DU 6SLWVEHUJHQX NWÃ&#x17D;U\ VWDQRZL VZRLVW\ SROLJRQ GR Ä·ZLDGF]DOQ\ GOD EDGDF]\ FKFà F\FK ]UR ]XPLHâ ]PLDQ\ ]DFKRG]à FH QD WHUHQLH 3ROVNL 0HFKDQL]P\ RGSRZLHG]LDOQH ]D SRMDZLDMà FH VLô WDP IRUP\ JHRORJLF]QH SR]ZDODMà ERZLHP ]UR]XPLHâ SURFHV SRZVWDZDQLD SRGREQ\FK IRUP WDNÅ&#x2022;H Z GROLQDFK 7DWU :\VRNLFK *Ä&#x;Ã&#x17D;ZQ\P FHOHP SURMHNWX MHVW XVWDOHQLH MDN SU]HELHJD SURFHV WZRU]HQLD VLô VWRNÃ&#x17D;Z Z ZDUXQNDFK Ä·URGRZLVND SRODUQHJR : W\P FHOX EDGD VLô ORGRZFH VWDQR ZLà FH SRZLHU]FKQL 6SLWVEHUJHQX ,FK REHFQH FRIDQLH XND]XMH PHFKDQL]P SRZVWDZDQLD VWRNÃ&#x17D;Z JÃ&#x17D;UVNLFK

&XUUHQW FOLPDWLF FRQGLWLRQV RQ 6SLWV EHUJHQ DUH VLPLODU WR WKRVH LQ 3RODQG \HDUV DJR s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

0JU .U]\V]WRI 6HQGHUDN s GRN WRUDQW LQWHUG\VF\SOLQDUQ\FK VWXGLÃ&#x17D;Z SRODUQ\FK NLHURZQLN SURMHNWX EDGDF] REV]DUÃ&#x17D;Z SR ODUQ\FK L Z\VRNRJÃ&#x17D;UVNLFK ] :\G]LDÄ&#x;X 1DXN R =LHPL 8Ķ

38

0JU .U]\V]WRI 6HQGHUDN s GR FWRUDO VWXGHQW RI LQWHUGLVFLSOL QDU\ SRODU VWXGLHV SURMHFW PD QDJHU UHVHDUFKHU LQ WKH Ƭ HOG RI SRODU DQG PRXQWDLQ DUHDV DW WKH )DFXOW\ RI (DUWK 6FLHQFHV RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

$:$.( s $UFWLF FOLPDWH DQG HQYLURQPHQW RI WKH 1RUGLF 6HDV DQG WKH 6YDOEDUG *UHHQODQG DUHD

)LRUG\ DUNW\F]QH EôGà FH RJQLZHP Ä&#x;à F]à F\P Oà G L RFHDQ Và EDUG]R ZUDÅ&#x2022;OLZH QD RFLHSODQLH L Z\ND]XMà QDMZF]HÄ·QLHM V]H ]PLDQ\ Ä·URGRZLVNRZH Z\QLNDMà FH ] DQWURSRJHQLF]Q\FK RGG]LDÄ&#x;\ZDÄ¡ QD NOLPDW : $UNW\FH SU]\EU]HÅ&#x2022;QD JUDQLFD Ƭ RUGX MHVW ]Z\NOH ]GRPLQRZDQD SU]H] ORGRZFH RUD] VH]RQRZ\ QDSÄ&#x;\Z ZÃ&#x17D;G VÄ&#x;RGNLFK D MHJR PRUVND JUDQLFD MHVW VLOQLH X]DOHÅ&#x2022;QLRQD RG FLHSÄ&#x;\FK ZÃ&#x17D;G RFHDQLF]Q\FK /HSV]H ]UR]XPLHQLH Z\ PLDQ\ SRPLôG]\ Ƭ RUGDPL D RFHDQHP RUD] SURFHVÃ&#x17D;Z ]DFKRG]à F\FK Z REUô ELH Ƭ RUGÃ&#x17D;Z PD RJURPQH ]QDF]HQLH GOD RNUHÄ·OHQLD PHFKDQL]PÃ&#x17D;Z PLôG]\ URF]QHM ]PLHQQRÄ·FL NOLPDWX L GÄ&#x;XJRWHU PLQRZ\FK WUHQGÃ&#x17D;Z &HOHP SURMHNWX $:$.( MHVW ]UR]XPLHQLH Z]DMHPQ\FK RGG]LDÄ&#x;\ZDÄ¡ SRPLôG]\ JÄ&#x;Ã&#x17D;ZQ\PL HOHPHQWDPL V\VWHPX NOLPDW\F]QHJR Z UHMRQLH 6YDOEDUGX s RFHDQHP DWPRV IHUà L ORGHP %DGDQLD SURZDG]RQH E\Ä&#x;\ SU]H] QDXNRZFÃ&#x17D;Z ] 1RUZHJLL L 3ROVNL

.LHURZQLNLHP SURMHNWX MHVW SURI ]Z GU KDE -DFHN -DQLD s JHRPRUIRORJ EDGDF] ORGRZ FÃ&#x17D;Z L Ä·URGRZLVND REV]DUÃ&#x17D;Z SRODUQ\FK

40

%HLQJ D OLQN EHWZHHQ ODQG DQG RFHDQ $UFWLF IMRUGV DUH KLJKO\ YXOQHUDEOH WR ZDUPLQJ DQG DUH H[SHFWHG WR H[KLELW WKH HDUOLHVW HQYLURQPHQWDO FKDQJHV UHVXOWLQJ IURP DQWKURSRJHQLF LPSDFWV RQ FOLPDWH ,Q WKH $UFWLF WKH LQVKRUH ERXQGDU\ RI D IMRUG V\VWHP LV XVXDOO\ GRPLQDWHG E\ JODFLHUV DQG VHDVRQDO IUHVKZDWHU LQƮ RZ ZKLOH LWV Rƪ VKRUH ERXQGDU\ LV VWURQJO\ LQƮ XHQFHG E\ ZDUP RFHDQLF ZDWHUV ,PSURYHG XQGHU VWDQGLQJ RI WKH IMRUGV RFHDQ H[FKDQJH DQG SURFHVVHV ZLWKLQ $UFWLF IMRUGV LV RI JUHDW LPSRUWDQFH IRU WKH LGHQWLƬ FDWLRQ RI WKH PHFKDQLVPV RI LQWHU DQQXDO FOL PDWH YDULDELOLW\ DQG ORQJ WHUP WUHQGV 7KH DLP RI WKH $:$.( SURMHFW LV WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH PDLQ FRPSRQHQWV RI WKH FOLPDWH V\VWHP LQ WKH 6YDOEDUG DUHD s RFHDQ DWPRVSKHUH DQG LFH 7KH UHVHDUFK ZDV FRQGXFWHG E\ VFLHQWLVWV IURP 1RUZD\ DQG 3RODQG

7KH SURMHFW PDQDJHU LV SURI ]Z GU KDE -DFHN -DQLD s JHR PRUSKRORJLVW UHVHDUFKHU LQ WKH Ƭ HOG RI JODFLHUV DQG WKH HQYL URQPHQW RI SRODU DUHDV

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

$:$.( s $UFWLF FOLPDWH V\VWHP VWXG\ RI RFHDQ VHD LFH DQG JODFLHU LQWHUDFWLRQ LQ WKH 6YDOEDUG DUHD ZLWK IRFXV RQ +RUVXQG

:\FRI\ZDQLH VLô GZÃ&#x17D;FK XFKRG]à F\FK GR PRU]D ORGRZFÃ&#x17D;Z SRÄ&#x;XGQLRZHJR 6SLWVEHUJHQX +RUQEUHHQ L +DPEHUJ EUHHQ GRSURZDG]L Z FLà JX QDMEOLÅ&#x2022;V]\FK ODW GR RWZDUFLD FLHÄ·QLQ\ L XWZRU]HQLD QRZHM Z\VS\ R SRZLHU]FKQL ]EOLÅ&#x2022;RQHM GR 5RGRV $:$.( MHVW NRQW\QXDFMà L UR]V]HU]HQLHP SROVNR QRUZHVNLHJR SURMHNWX $:$.( 'OD RVLà JQLôFLD FHOÃ&#x17D;Z SURMHNWX ]DVWRVRZDQH ]RVWDQLH PXO WLG\VF\SOLQDUQH SRGHMÄ·FLH SROHJDMà FH QD SURZDG]HQLX Z Ƭ RUG]LH +RUQVXQG Và VLDGXMà F\P ] QLP V]HOƬ H RUD] QD RWZDUW\P RFHDQLH VNRRUG\QRZDQ\FK REVHUZDFML PHWHRURORJLF]Q\FK RFH DQRJUDƬ F]Q\FK JODFMRORJLF]Q\FK L JHR Ƭ ]\F]Q\FK %DGDQLD VNXSLRQH EôGà QD DQDOL]LH ]PLDQ ]DFKRG]à F\FK Z RFH DQLH DWPRVIHU]H ORG]LH PRUVNLP MDN L ORGRZFDFK SRG Nà WHP ]PLDQ Ä·URGRZL VNRZ\FK Z\ZRÄ&#x;DQ\FK RGG]LDÄ&#x;\ZDQLHP F]\QQLNÃ&#x17D;Z DQWURSRJHQLF]Q\FK

'U KDE 0DULXV] *UDELHF s JHR PRUIRORJ L JODFMRORJ MHVW NLH URZQLNLHP SURMHNWX ]H VWURQ\ 8QLZHUV\WHWX ĶOà VNLHJR %DGD V\VWHP\ ORGRZFRZH $UNW\NL

7KH UHWUHDW RI WKH WZR JODFLHUV RI VRXWKHUQ 6SLWVEHUJHQ GLVJRUJLQJ LQWR WKH VHD +RUQEUHHQ DQG +DPEHUJEUH HQ LV JRLQJ WR OHDG ZLWKLQ WKH QH[W \HDUV WR WKH RSHQLQJ RI D VWUDLW DQG FUHDWLRQ RI D QHZ LVODQG ZLWK DQ DUHD VLPLODU WR 5KRGHV $:$.( LV D FRQWLQXDWLRQ DQG H[WHQVLRQ RI WKH 3ROLVK 1RUZHJLDQ $:$.( SURMHFW 7R DFKLHYH WKH SURMHFWoV DLPV D PXOWLGL VFLSOLQDU\ DSSURDFK ZLOO EH DGRSWHG E\ FDUU\LQJ RXW FRRUGLQDWHG PHWHRURORJL FDO RFHDQRJUDSKLF JODFLRORJLFDO DQG JHRSK\VLFDO REVHUYDWLRQV LQ WKH +RUQ VXQG IMRUG DQG RQ WKH DGMDFHQW VKHOI DQG WKH RSHQ RFHDQ 7KH UHVHDUFK ZLOO EH IRFXVHG RQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI FKDQJHV LQ WKH RFHDQ DWPRVSKHUH VHD LFH DQG JODFLHUV SD\LQJ VSHFLDO DWWHQWLRQ WR HQYLURQPHQWDO FKDQJHV FDXVHG E\ DQWKURSRJHQLF IDFWRUV

'U KDE 0DULXV] *UDELHF s JHR PRUSKRORJLVW DQG JODFLRORJLVW SURMHFW PDQDJHU RQ WKH SDUW RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWR ZLFH FRQGXFWV UHVHDUFK RQ WKH JODFLDO V\VWHPV RI WKH $UFWLF

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

41

,FH VHD s V]DFRZDQLH ZSÄ&#x;\ZX ]PLDQ ORGRZFÃ&#x17D;Z NRQW\QHQ WDOQ\FK QD Z]URVW SR]LRPX PRU]D

,FH VHD s (VWLPDWLRQ RI WKH LPSDFW RI FKDQJHV RI FRQWL QHQWDO JODFLHUV RQ WKH ULVH LQ VHD OHYHO

7RSQLHQLH ORGRZFÃ&#x17D;Z MHVW ]QDF]à F\P Å&#x201C;UÃ&#x17D;GÄ&#x;HP REHFQHJR SRGQRV]HQLD VLô SR]LRPX RFHDQÃ&#x17D;Z RUD] MHGQ\P ] F]\Q QLNÃ&#x17D;Z SU]\Ä·SLHV]DMà F\FK WHQ SURFHV Z RVWDWQLFK ODWDFK 5DSRUW 0LôG]\QD URGRZHJR 3DQHOX GV =PLDQ .OLPDWX ]D]QDF]D Å&#x2022;H QLHGRNÄ&#x;DGQRÄ·FL Z SURJQR ]RZDQLX Z]URVWX SR]LRPX PRU]D Và ]GRPLQRZDQH SU]H] EÄ&#x;ôG\ GRW\F]à FH RV]DFRZDQLD RGSÄ&#x;\ZX PDV ORGRZ\FK RUD] QLHSHÄ&#x;QH ]UR]XPLHQLH NOXF]RZ\FK SURFHVÃ&#x17D;Z NWÃ&#x17D;UH GRSURZDG]DMà GR LFK ]DQLNX 3URJUDP LFH VHD ]HEUDÄ&#x; HXUR SHMVNLFK L SR]DHXURSHMVNLFK SDUWQHUÃ&#x17D;Z Z FHOX ]UHGXNRZDQLD W\FK QLHGRNÄ&#x;DG QRÄ·FL %DGDQLH UHDNFML ORGRZFÃ&#x17D;Z QD RFLHSOHQLH NOLPDWX VWDQRZL ZDÅ&#x2022;Q\ HOHPHQW ZQLRVNRZDQLD R UR]ZRMX WUHQGX ]PLDQ NOLPDWX 3URMHNW ZSLVXMH VLô Z QXUW PLôG]\QDURGRZHM G\VNXVML QD WHPDW Ä&#x;DJRG]HQLD ]PLDQ NOLPDWX RUD] HXURSHMVNLHM GHEDW\ R RFKURQLH REV]DUÃ&#x17D;Z QDGEU]HÅ&#x2022;Q\FK 3R]ZROL WDNÅ&#x2022;H OHSLHM ]UR]XPLHâ SURFHV\ ]DFKRG]à FH Z REV]DU]H NULRVIHU\ L ZSÄ&#x;\ZDMà FH QD IXQNFMRQRZDQLH V\VWHPX Ä·URGRZLVNR ZHJR QD =LHPL

7KH PHOWLQJ RI JODFLHUV LV D VLJQLƬ FDQW FDXVH RI WRGD\oV ULVH LQ RFHDQ OHYHO DQG RQH RI WKH IDFWRUV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU WKH DFFHOHUDWLRQ RI WKLV SURFHVV LQ UHFHQW \HDUV $FFRUGLQJ WR D UHSRUW RI WKH ,Q WHUQDWLRQDO 3DQHO RQ &OLPDWH &KDQJH LQDFFXUDFLHV LQ WKH IRUHFDVWLQJ RI WKH ULVH LQ VHD OHYHO DUH GRPLQDWHG E\ HU URUV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH HVWLPDWLRQ RI WKH RXWƮ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Ʈ XHQFH WKH IXQFWLRQLQJ RI WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO V\VWHP RQ (DUWK

.LHURZQLNLHP SURMHNWX MHVW SURI ]Z GU KDE -DFHN -DQLD s JHRPRUIRORJ EDGDF] ORGRZ FÃ&#x17D;Z L Ä·URGRZLVND REV]DUÃ&#x17D;Z SRODUQ\FK

42

7KH SURMHFW PDQDJHU LV SURI ]Z GU KDE -DFHN -DQLD s JHR PRUSKRORJLVW UHVHDUFKHU LQ WKH Ƭ HOG RI JODFLHUV DQG WKH HQYL URQPHQW RI SRODU DUHDV

81,:(56<7(7 Ķ/Ã&#x;6., GOD NOLPDWX 81,9(56,7< 2) 6,/(6,$ IRU FOLPDWH

5HSURGXNFMH SODNDWÃ&#x17D;Z Z SXEOLNDFML SRFKRG]à ] NROHN FML UHDOL]RZDQHJR RG URNX PLôG]\QDURGRZHJR SURMHNWX e(NRSODNDWq NWÃ&#x17D;UHJR DXWRUHP L NXUDWRUHP MHVW 7RPDV] .LSND $XWRUDPL SUDF Z\EUDQ\FK GR SXEOL NDFML Và SUDFRZQLF\ QDXNRZR G\GDNW\F]QL L VWXGHQFL ,QVW\WXWX 6]WXNL :\G]LDÄ&#x;X $UW\VW\F]QHJR 8QLZHUV\ WHWX ĶOà VNLHJR ,ZRQD &LFK\ $UWXU 6WDUF]HZVNL 0DUWD &]XEDQ 0DUW\QD 6REROHZVND 6HEDVWLDQ .XELFD 6WHIDQ /HFKZDU 7RPDV] .LSND 0DUFLQ 8UEDÄ¡F]\N Ä&#x17E;XNDV] .OLÄ· 7KH SRVWHUV UHSURGXFHG LQ WKH SXEOLFDWLRQ FRPH IURP WKH FROOHFWLRQ RI WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO SURMHFW p(FR SRVWHUq ZKLFK KDV EHHQ FDUULHG RXW VLQFH DQG ZKRVH DXWKRU DQG FXUDWRU LV 7RPDV] .LSND 7KH DXWKRUV RI WKH ZRUNV VH OHFWHG IRU WKH SXEOLFDWLRQ DUH DFDGHPLFV DQG VWXGHQWV RI WKH ,QVWLWXWH RI )LQH $UWV )DFXOW\ RI )LQH $UWV DQG 0XVLF RI 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6LOHVLD LQ .DWRZLFH ,ZRQD &LFK\ $UWXU 6WDU F]HZVNL 0DUWD &]XEDQ 0DUW\QD 6REROHZVND 6HEDVWLDQ .XELFD 6WHIDQ /HFKZDU 7RPDV] .LSND 0DUFLQ 8UEDÄ¡F]\N Ä&#x17E;XNDV] .OLÄ·

$XWRU]\ ]GMôâ 3KRWRV E\ V s )RW -DNXE ']LHZLW V s )RW -XOLD $JQLHV]ND 6]\PDOD V s )RW 6]\PRQ 1DZUDW V s )RW =ELJQLHZ .XF V s )RW $QQD -DEÄ&#x;RÄ¡VND V s )RW 0DÄ&#x;JRU]DWD .Ä&#x;RVNRZLF] V s )RW 'DULX] ,JQDWLXN

3DUWQHU

.DWRZLFH