Poverty and Social Impact Assessment
Table 2.3—Regional income poverty rates in Tajikistan (2007-2009)
Poverty 2007 2009 53.5% 47.2% 49.4% 41.8% 55.0% 49.2% 43% 34% 43% 62% 47% 54% 49% 39% 69% 48%
National - Urban - Rural Dushanbe Gorno Badakhshan Khatlon Regions of Republican Subordination25 Sughd
Extreme poverty 2007 2009 17.4% 17.5% 18.9% 17.5% 16.9% 17.5% 16% 14% 10% 26% 8% 21% 14% 12% 31% 17%
Sources: World Bank Poverty Summary Note for Tajikistan, September 2010; PRSP for 2010-2012, pp. 6-8.26 Table 2.4—Trends in absolute poverty rates in Kyrgyzstan, 2007-2010
Region National - Urban - Rural Batken region Jalalabad region Issyk-Kul region Naryn region Osh region Talas region Chui region Bishkek city
2007 35.0% 23.2% 41.7% 40.4% 53.0% 38.6% 45.2% 46.6% 35.3% 15.0% 5.0%
Poverty rates 2008 2009 31.7% 31.7% 22.6% 21.9% 36.8% 37.1% 20.7% 31.5% 40.1% 36.9% 52.2% 46.1% 42.7% 44.1% 37.5% 38.3% 43.0% 33.0% 15.8% 21.2% 15.2% 13.2%
2010 33.7% 23.6% 39.5% 33.6% 44.7% 38.0% 53.5% 41.9% 42.3% 21.9% 7.9%
2007 6.6% 3.2% 8.5% 9.2% 12.0% 8.1% 12.8% 6.4% 7.9% 1.4% 0.6%
Extreme poverty rates 2008 2009 6.1% 3.1% 3.2% 2.7% 7.7% 3.3% 3.9% 6.0% 9.8% 0.5% 16.9% 6.6% 11.6% 10.0% 4.5% 2.0% 4.6% 2.9% 2.1% 2.4% 2.1% 3.3%
2010 5.3% 4.2% 6.0%
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Source: State Statistical Committee, Bishkek, 2009, 2010.
Table 2.5—Fiscal, social policy trends in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan (2008-2011)
Share of GDP devoted to: Budget revenues - Grants Budget expenditures - Public employment - Household transfers27 - Pensions Budget balance: - With grants - Without grants Public debt
2008 25.9% 1.9% 26.2% 6.5% 5.0% 4.4%
Kyrgyzstan 2009 2010 27.1% 28.8% 5.1% 2.9% 36.1% 38.1% 7.3% 8.0% 6.8% 9.4% 6.1% 9.0%
2011 30.4% 4.3% 42.3% 11.1% 9.0% 8.6%
1.6% -0.3% 48.5%
-3.9% -9.0% 58.0%
-7.6% -11.9% 52.5%
-6.4% -9.3% 62.6%
2008 20.5% 1.6% 28.0% 4.1% 3.4% n.a.
Tajikistan 2009 2010 20.0% 20.2% 1.6% 1.3% 28.6% 26.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.1% 3.9% n.a. n.a.
2011 21.6% 1.7% 29.6% 4.9% 4.1% n.a.
-5.9% -7.5% 30.0%
-7.0% -8.6% 34.3%
-6.3% -8.0% 37.4%
-5.3% -6.4% 36.4%
Sources: IMF country reports (Kyrgyzstan—October 2010, June 2011; Tajikistan—December 2010, June 2011); UNDP calculations. 25
This is the broader region to which Dushanbe city belongs. It includes also Tursunzode (where the Tajikistan Aluminum Company—the country’s largest industrial enterprise—is located), and the headwaters of the Vakhsh river, where the hydropower plants that generate more than 90 percent of Tajikistan’s electricity are located. 26 The regional poverty data for 2007 and 2009 may not be fully comparable. 27 For Kyrgyzstan, these data are for Social Fund expenditures.
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