Once the BAU scenario has been constructed, the next step is to develop a mitigation or low emission development (LED) scenario to study the effects of different policies on emissions generated by different sectors (e.g. energy sector, transport sector, agricultural sector) . Depending on the objectives of the LED study several mitigation or LED scenarios may need to be developed to account for several scenarios of future policies or economic development. Box 8: Developing GHG emission scenarios for 2012 in Argentina In the analysis of GHG emissions in Argentina in 2012 the need to develop quantitative scenarios was identified. Emissions of the main GHG gases were estimated for the main economic sectors in the country: households, services, agriculture/livestock, industry, energy, transportation and waste. For modelling the team used the PoleStar programme, designed by the Stockholm Environmental Institute, which provides a flexible framework for construction and evaluation of alternative development scenarios. It was decided to develop scenarios that, rather than representing different rate of GDP growth, differ in terms of the growth pattern: Industrial model The country’s economy follows an industrial growth path, with the share of industry in GDP increasing faster than for other sectors, reaching 19% in 2012. The economy experiences a 2.96% growth per year, a value that exceeds the 1991 –2001 decade. Predominant fuels are natural gas (44%) and oil by-products (30%). Agro-exporting model Primary activities expand at a higher rate, including the agro-exporting sector and mining. The economy experiences export -led growth. Employment levels do not improve and infrastructure and services grow at the pace of the primary sector needs. Power based model Under this scenario expansion of energy intensive intermediate goods with vertical integration of energy companies is assumed. Growth is experience d in sub-sectors related to gas pipelines, oil pipelines, elect rical transmission networks, ports and roads. The energy consumption grows at an average rate of 2.78% per year, which is lower than under the industrial model. The main energy source is natural gas, accounting for 43.4%, followed by oil by-products, with 31.5% and electricity, with 17.25%. Projects of future GHG emissions vary in accordance with the development pattern adopted by the country. In 2012, the higher emissions would occur under a development industrial model, followed by the energy based model and finally, by the agro-exporting model. Results vary from a maximum of 3 MTCE between the higher and lower emission scenarios, with the highest increase of emissions observed under the industrial model (a 20% growth to 1997). In addition, these scenario s also result in various distributions of the GHG emissions among the main sectors of economy. Source: Adapted from Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios ARGENTINA – 2012, Argentine Business Council for Sustainable Development – CEADS.
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