UN Montenegro Comparative Advantage Analysis Introduction UN Montenegro and government partners engaged in a two-‐part Comparative Advantage Analysis (hereafter CAA). The first exercise centered on using a modified version of the enhanced survey tool, which was initially developed for the New Voices workshops. Additional content was added to reflect the internal focus of the CAA, and a direct link was made between the data generated from the New Voices workshops and the CAA. Using the top 17 cards from the New Voices workshop to create scenarios—each of which included two Opportunity, Challenge, Stakeholder, and Value cards—the CAA focused on UN Montenegro priorities and capacities within the worlds they were given. Incasting, which is the process of exploring and providing more depth and complexity within a given scenario, is a powerful and effective tool for developing causal links between critical issues and focal areas.
Results CAA participants were first asked to create causal chains using Stakeholder, Action, Challenge, Opportunity, and Value cards. Then, participants were asked to identify the nine most impactful cards, which were ranked using red, amber, and green tokens. In asking participants to prioritize the most impactful cards from high (red) to medium (amber) to low (green), each group needed to decide collectively and collaboratively on key priority areas. This data was collected and visualized for participants immediately after the exercise in order to see similarities and differences between the groups.
In the below network visual, one can see all of the cards identified as the most impactful during the foresight CAA exercise. The color of each node (or card) represents the categories: Opportunity (green); Challenge (red); Actor or Stakeholder (orange); Action (purple); and Values (blue). The line colors show token (red, amber, or green) weighting. Yellow node coloring symbolizes multi-‐ category cards. For example, Education was ranked as a medium impact Challenge, a small impact Opportunity, and twice as a high impact Opportunity, so four of the five groups saw Education as a critical issue or concern for the future. Only one group chose to rank a Value (Equality) as one of the most impactful cards.
In addition to the foresight exercise, the next day a select group of participants, which included both UN Montenegro staff and government partners, were asked to identify UN Montenegro’s current strengths, capacities, future needs, and critical challenges facing the country in the next five years.
Participants cited very specific concerns over the state of international aid, which led to a focused discussion on specialized fundraising in cooperation with government partners. As a means of using current resources more effectively, participants noted the potential of horizon scanning, new research methods, and behavioral insights as tools for establishing a more forward-‐looking and contextual approach. These could be further strengthened by developing robust platforms, including both in-‐person and online, platforms for monitoring and evaluation. Participants felt that UN Montenegro had very strong administrative and technical abilities, including human resources, joint-‐programming capacities, and the means to leverage and mobilize resources when needed to meet project goals. Additionally, participants felt that the UN's relationships and resources with global partners were an asset and could be utilized to develop strategic innovations when necessary, which relates directly to its strength for following up on treaty bodies.
In thinking about what capacities UN Montenegro might need to deploy in the next five years, participants felt that the challenges and possible opportunities of infrastructure and climate change would require reflection on operational and technical abilities, especially given the perception that fundraising will continue to be a challenge in the years to come. Related to these areas, the capacity for further data collection and the mobilization of informational and technical resources were seen as critical for UN Montenegro in the next five years. Finally, the capacity to provide objective and timely policy advice was noted as the most pressing ability for UN Montenegro to deliver. Challenges When asked to give the most pressing challenges facing UN Montenegro in the next five years, participants cited: sustainable development, EU integration, human rights, employment, financing, poverty, migrants, education, social inclusion, climate change, health, rule of law, regional disparities. Much of the discussion centered on how these challenge were connected to one another and required holistic approaches. Recommendations Based on the exchanges between participants during the comparative advantage analysis, the following are some key recommendations for UN Montenegro’s future work. 1. Institutionalize a forward-‐looking approach to scan for trends and emerging issues. As UN Montenegro already as a strong advantage in mobilizing resources and strategic innovation, it can draw on a range of capacities to help implement a foresight approach. 2. Policy focus. As UN Montenegro has a strong advantage in following up on treaty bodies, it should continue to provide support for strengthening policy initiatives, especially in relation to infrastructure and climate change. 3. Data, data, data. UN Montenegro should strengthen its capacity for data capture and analysis by developing stakeholder engagement platforms for monitoring and evaluation, especially those that emphasize spatial analyses.