OUTBREAK AND CAUSES played here with regard to the Belgian Kongo. But this latter hypothesis does not seem to me to be compatible with the intervention of Gen. von Moltke. "Further, the Emperor William is less master of his impatience than is generally believed. More than once I have seen him allow his innermost thoughts to escape. Whatever may have been the object of his conversation, which has been reported to me, the confidence has none the less the gravest character. It corresponds with the precariousness of the general situation, and with the state of a certain portion of opinion in France and in Germany. If I were allowed to draw conclusions I would say that it would be wise to take into account the new fact that the Emperor is growing • familiar with an order of ideas which formerly was repugnant to him, and that, to borrow from him a phrase he likes to use, 'we should keep our powder dry.'
Meanwhile were taking place the two Balkan wars, the outcome of which proved more satisfactory to the Entente Powers than to the Triple Alliance, altho Serbia's aspirations for an outlet on the Adriatic, either through a union with Montenegro or by the acquisition of a part of the Albanian coast, had been thwarted by Austria in the final settlement. Austria, however, had been unable to prevent an extension of Serbia's inland territory which brought to Serbia greater prestige, and as the champion of a Pan-Serb propaganda, having for its avowed purpose the incorporation into a united Serbia of all Serbs living under the Austrian Empire, made her more dangerous to Austria than ever. In other words, Austria could no longer dictate to Serbia, but had to be content with a neighbor of no mean strength who was backed by Russia. Austria was also bitterly disappointed to find that her dream of an outlet on the iEgean through Salonica had been thwarted, while this stronger Serbia had been thrown across the path that led to it. When in July (> 1914, Russia, in response to Austria's aggressions against Serbia, partially mobilized on her Austrian frontier, as she had previously declared she would do, Germany took unfbrage. At first Germany had said she would not consider partial mobilization against Austria as a cause for war—Bismarck, in fact, had held that mobilization in itself did not mean war, that the proper answer to 102