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After Afghanistan There are only two post-Afghanistan options for NATO. One, the long-time American preference, is for NATO to become a “global alliance.” In 1993, U.S. Senator Richard Lugar, a primary exponent of this option, coined the expression “out of area or out of business.” Yet, throughout the 1990s, the American agenda for a Global Alliance, never found favour with Europeans and has probably been administered the coup de grâce by the experience of Afghanistan, which, however strong the official spin may be, is almost certain to be judged by history as a military and political failure. NATO’s Chicago summit in May 2012 formally kept all strategic options on the table, but on-going questions about the real nature and purpose of the Alliance are unlikely to be resolved any time soon. NATO needs a radical re-think. This is likely to prove highly uncomfortable for the UK. Assuming, as seems reasonable, that NATO will elect not to “go out of business,” the most likely future for the Alliance is to be re-designated as a mechanism for guaranteeing regional stability in the European area and its neighbourhood. Collective security will complement collective defence. This will require a new and constructive relationship between NATO and CSDP. This has now become the clear preference of France. The Report issued by former French foreign minister Hubert Védrine on 14 November 2012 makes it clear that France, henceforth, will devote major energies to what Védrine calls “Europeanising the Alliance.” In one sense, this might well offer the UK some traction, but it would come at the price of recognising France as the leading European player in the Alliance, a player with a very clear idea about how to resolve the ongoing tensions between NATO and CSDP. If the UK were to find itself outside the formal structures of the European Union, its central role in the development of an effective and robust security and defence policy, both via NATO and via CSDP would be massively diminished. It is highly likely that the necessary recalibration of the relationship between CSDP and NATO would take place with Paris, Berlin and Washington as active players and the UK as an increasingly bemused onlooker. It would be a sad prospect indeed for the country which has always prided itself on being the foremost military player in Europe and the guardian of the transatlantic relationship.