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CONCLUSION:
Global trends in basic service provision David Satterthwaite INTRODUCTION By 2030, the world population is projected to exceed 8 billion, rising to 9 billion by 2050. Most of this growth will be in cities and towns, which are expected to grow by 1.4 billion over the next 15-20 years. This trend offers considerable opportunity. Economies, in general, tend to grow as countries become more urban. Concentrations of people and investment, economies of scale and proximity, high levels of exchange, can all foster vitality, innovation and development, ideally with benefits for all. However, urbanization also brings challenges. The future inhabitants of these cities, towns and their surrounding regions will need water, food, shelter, energy, sanitation, and transport, as well as jobs, education, and health care. There are already considerable difficulties in meeting current demands; these are just a prelude to the enormous challenges ahead. GOLD III focuses on how local governments can help guarantee the universal provision of basic services. It shows progress made by local government in service provision, and by many national governments and international organizations in recognizing the importance of local government in this area, as well as in ensuring more accountable and transparent governance. However, there are also exceptions to the decentralization trend. Some countries have kept decision-making and funding centralized or even recentralized powers, and many international agencies still ignore local gov-
ernments. The importance of basic service provision to economic development is often overlooked, leading to lack of support for local governments in managing urbanization and the demands it generates. This conclusion considers the global trends in service provision, both the progress and the unmet needs in each region, as well as the levels of investment needed in the near future. It reviews issues of governance, management and funding and considers local government engagement with community organizations and the private sector (international, national, local and informal). The chapter ends by discussing emerging challenges and the role of decentralization and basic services in the MDG and Post2015 Development Agenda.
REGIONAL OVERVIEW Local governments across the world are facing, to varying degrees, the effects of the economic and financial crisis, environmental constraints, demographic changes, and rapid urbanization. The financing of basic services is a particularly significant challenge. Beyond these common challenges, the regional chapters in this report present a diverse picture. They show improvements in service delivery in many middle-income countries, serious backlogs in most lowand lower-middle income countries, and new constraints in high-income countries, including changing institutional frameworks, deteriorating infrastructure, and
Acknowledgment: To the World Secretariat of UCLG for its support in the development of this conclusion, to Pierre Bauby for his contribution to the section on governance, to Claude de Miras for his contribution to the section on financing, to Jacques Labre for his insights, and to Sheridan Bartlett for her editing work.