Whether SB 375 will lead to real achievement will depend on at least three things. First, there is the issue of whether the law’s incentive structure will work to spur compact housing development. It might turn out that CEQA exemptions are not nearly enough to entice builders into compact infill projects. A host of other structural and political barriers may make those projects very difficult despite the exemptions. 5 5 Second, it is unclear if the bill’s varied incentives will work well together. Sustainable Community Strategies are holistic plans, with parts dependent on each other for success (increased housing built near improved transit lines, for example). Incentives, however, operate project by project. What if the bill succeeds in spurring high-density development along transit corridors proposed for expansion, but the dollars to make that transit expansion a reality never come? Third, and last, it remains to be seen how influenced people are by being shown what is possible. Part of the impetus for the bill might best be described as hope: if we envision it, they will come. Whether that hope is justified will not be apparent for many years.
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