Punta Gorda.......................................................................................... 115

Short Term Outlook for Punta Gorda, FL December 2021 Forecast

2021:Q4 2022:Q1 2022:Q2 2022:Q3 2022:Q4 2023:Q1 2023:Q2 2023:Q3 2023:Q4 2024:Q1 2024:Q2 2024:Q1 2024:Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4

Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries

6.0 -8.6 0.1 2.3 3.9 4.6 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.2 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 Nonwage Income 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 Real Personal Income (12$) 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.8 8.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 -12.1 -2.9 0.1 2.0 2.7 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.1 Per Capita Income (Ths) 47.8 47.6 48.2 48.7 49.0 49.2 49.6 49.9 50.3 50.7 51.0 51.4 51.8 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 42.9 42.6 42.9 43.1 43.2 43.2 43.3 43.4 43.6 43.6 43.7 43.8 43.9 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 51.5 51.8 52.0 52.2 52.3 52.6 52.8 53.1 53.5 54.0 54.5 55.1 55.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.4 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.3 3.8 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment 50.2 50.5 51.2 51.5 51.7 51.8 52.2 52.3 52.4 52.3 52.2 52.2 52.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 4.3 4.3 3.9 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 Manufacturing 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.2 4.3 -1.1 1.7 0.1 2.2 -0.7 -0.4 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 Nonmanufacturing 49.5 49.8 50.4 50.8 50.9 51.0 51.4 51.5 51.6 51.6 51.4 51.4 51.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 4.3 4.4 3.9 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 Construction & Mining 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 -1.3 -0.9 -3.0 -2.7 -2.7 -3.0 -3.4 -3.3 -3.1 -2.3 -1.4 -0.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 11.9 11.7 11.6 11.6 11.3 11.2 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.2 10.8 10.7 10.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.0 -0.8 -0.7 -4.6 -3.8 -1.5 -1.8 0.2 -0.6 -5.4 -6.0 -6.4 Wholesale Trade 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 Retail Trade 9.5 9.3 9.2 9.1 8.9 8.8 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.3 8.2 8.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Information 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.2 13.2 10.5 11.1 7.7 8.6 10.0 10.2 13.8 13.2 12.9 10.9 7.5 Financial Activities 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 5.4 10.2 10.6 9.8 9.0 6.2 4.3 4.0 3.3 3.8 3.5 2.8 Prof & Business Services 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 6.4 9.0 7.7 7.6 4.7 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.9 2.7 2.6 Educ & Health Services 10.0 10.1 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 7.4 8.7 5.4 3.2 2.1 -1.0 -1.5 -0.3 0.5 1.8 2.9 3.0 Leisure & Hospitality 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.8 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.6 7.6 2.7 7.0 10.7 11.1 13.7 15.0 9.1 6.9 3.0 -0.2 -0.9 Other Services 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.8 7.4 7.2 9.5 7.1 4.8 -0.2 -3.5 -3.5 -2.7 -0.7 0.8 1.7 Federal Government 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -28.0 -17.4 -13.2 9.0 7.0 6.0 4.4 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 State & Local Government 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.2 5.8 7.6 3.8 3.8 3.0 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) 193.8 194.6 195.3 195.9 196.6 197.2 197.9 198.5 199.1 199.7 200.3 200.9 201.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 Labor Force (Ths) 76.0 76.9 77.4 77.7 77.8 77.9 77.9 78.0 78.1 78.0 78.0 78.0 77.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.0 6.4 5.4 3.8 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 Unemployment Rate (%) 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.6 Total Housing Starts 3654.7 3182.6 2767.4 2436.4 2171.6 1983.5 1833.8 1706.2 1690.3 1650.1 1615.9 1608.0 1577.0 Single-Family 2859.7 2434.8 2128.4 1867.9 1685.7 1506.7 1372.7 1308.8 1291.7 1249.9 1222.8 1219.3 1195.9 Multifamily 795.0 747.7 639.0 568.5 485.9 476.8 461.2 397.4 398.7 400.2 393.1 388.6 381.1

PROFILES

The Sebastian MSA is located in central east Florida and is comprised of the Indian River County. Sebastian is home to Pelican Island, America’s first National Wildlife refuge, and is known for its Atlantic-facing beaches.

QUICK FACTS

• Metro population estimate of 153,989 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census Bureau). • Indian River County population estimate of 153,989 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S.

Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 67,920 in August 2021 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 5.3% as of August 2021, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 3,601 unemployed people (Florida Research and

Economic Database).

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Sebastian Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show below-average growth in the economic indicators studied in this forecast. The MSA’s Gross Metro Product level will be at $6,420.50 million, the fifth lowest in the state. Average annual wage growth of 3.1 percent will lead the average annual wage level to $57,100. The per capita income level of $83,300, the second highest in the state MSAs will be boosted by personal income growth of 3.8 percent. Population growth will be 1.1 percent.

The Sebastian MSA will experience above average employment growth rate in the state at 3.0 percent annually. Sebastian’s unemployment rate should average 4.9 percent.

Leisure sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 9.0 percent growth annually. The Other Services sector will see the secondhighest average annual growth rate at 6.8 percent, followed by the Professional & Business Services at 5.6 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

Outreach program available to help renters as a result of Covid-related circumstances

• Since the eviction moratorium has ended, Indian

River County Commissioner, Laura Moss, is working to create an Outreach Program that will assist people with their rent. • At these outreach events, there will be people to help you apply for federal funding under the

CARES act. • Under this program, households can receive up to $10,500. Source: Sebastian Daily, September 22, 2021

Vero beach couple to open first Treasure Coast distillery, use Florida native ingredients

• Ray and Mandy Hooker are planning to open

Indian River Distillery at the Vero Beach

Regional Airport in January 2022. They are just waiting for their city lease to be approved. • They were inspired to open a distillery in Vero

Beach because they saw that they were becoming popular nationally, but that there weren’t any locally. • They are looking at a 4,000-square-foot property that is owned by the city. Source: TC Palm, September 17, 2021

$434,399 Conn Beach boardwalk repair in Vero Beach nearly complete; mid-September opening eyed

• The Conn Beach Boardwalk, which was damaged from decades of storms, has undergone a $434,499 repair project. • While the project was supposed to be completed already, there have been weather related delays, but it is now expected that the repairs will be completed in the beginning of September. • The boardwalk has become a popular destination. Source: TC Palm, August 31, 2021

Let’s make a deal: Can Vero Beach get a bigger piece of the pie if it renews the county’s lease?

• Indian River County leases a 1.2-acre piece of land from Vero Beach, but the lease is set to expire in 2026. • Indian River County wants to renew the lease for 99 years and will give a one-time payment of $500,000. • However, some people in Vero Beach think the piece of land is worth more than what Indian

River County is offering. Source: TC Palm, August 18, 2021

Sebastian gas prices could be over $3 per gallon

• Gas prices in Sebastian this year have been lower than expected. • Florida’s average price of gas currently is $3.01 per gallon, with it being most expensive in

Panama City at $3.13. • On July 6th, the cheapest place to buy gas in

Sebastian was at Murphy USA at $2.91 Source: Sebastian Daily, July 6, 2021

City of Sebastian Will Keep Harbor Lights Property

• The Sebastian City Council decided unanimously that the city will not sell Harbor Lights Property despite safety concerns. • Mayor Ed Dodd expressed that he does not support selling the property right now because he doesn’t think that there will be much gains for the city from selling it at this time. • While Sebastian holds on to the property, the

City Manager, Paul Carlise, can tear down the building as long as it will cost less than $40,000. Source: Sebastian Daily, July 18, 2021

Sebas�an-Vero Beach MSA Industry Loca�on Quo�ents

Total Nonagricultural Employment

Total Private

Goods Producing

Service Producing

Private Service Providing

Mining, Logging, and Construc�on

Manufacturing

Trade, Transporta�on, and U�li�es

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Transporta�on,Warehousing and U�li�es

Informa�on

Financial Ac�vi�es

Professional and Business Services

Educa�onal and Health Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Other Services

Government

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6

Long Term Outlook for Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL December 2021 Forecast

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (12$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (12$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago 10.9 11.6 12.6 13.3 13.8 14.6 14.6 15.3 16.0 6.7 6.6 8.4 5.9 3.4 6.2 -0.1 4.8 4.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 8.5 9.2 10.0 10.6 11.0 11.6 11.4 12.0 12.5 11.4 11.9 12.6 13.2 13.4 13.8 13.4 13.8 14.1 4.8 4.4 5.8 4.5 2.3 2.6 -2.9 2.9 2.3 72.4 75.7 80.8 84.2 85.6 89.7 88.7 91.9 95.0 75.8 77.7 80.9 83.2 83.7 84.8 81.4 82.9 84.0 46.1 46.5 47.8 49.2 52.5 55.5 56.3 57.3 59.2 2.0 1.0 2.8 2.8 6.8 5.7 1.4 1.7 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment 50.5 51.9 53.5 54.4 52.1 53.6 56.1 57.8 58.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 2.8 3.1 1.7 -4.4 2.9 4.7 3.0 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 -4.7 4.4 12.8 4.9 -6.2 1.8 4.9 2.6 -1.6 48.6 49.9 51.3 52.1 49.9 51.3 53.8 55.4 56.1 3.4 2.7 2.8 1.6 -4.3 2.9 4.7 3.1 1.3 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 12.2 7.6 6.9 3.7 -1.0 5.8 -1.7 -3.4 -2.2 10.2 10.4 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.5 10.4 10.3 9.9 0.6 2.0 3.7 -1.8 -1.6 0.5 -0.9 -1.0 -3.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 8.6 8.7 9.0 8.7 8.5 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5.6 -11.2 0.1 7.5 5.0 7.0

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 0.3 -1.9 2.3 3.4 -0.6 -1.7 6.3 4.8 2.9 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.6 7.2 7.4 7.7 5.3 4.9 5.2 4.2 -4.5 7.2 8.8 2.3 4.1 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.9 10.8 10.9 11.4 11.4 11.6 5.2 2.0 1.1 4.0 -0.9 0.8 4.4 0.2 2.3 7.8 8.1 8.1 8.3 7.0 7.7 8.4 9.6 9.9 4.1 3.8 1.0 2.4 -15.7 9.1 9.1 14.4 3.5 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.4 1.9 0.9 4.0 -2.9 -4.5 3.4 14.0 5.5 4.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 11.1 17.7 -6.8 9.6 5.3 -5.6 6.9 4.8 1.4 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.1 -0.7 0.5 1.8 -0.8 -2.8 -0.6 4.4 2.6 0.8

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

150.2 152.9 155.4 158.0 160.6 162.8 164.6 166.4 168.1 2.3 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 62.4 63.9 64.9 65.7 64.2 66.4 69.6 70.1 70.2 1.5 2.4 1.6 1.2 -2.3 3.5 4.7 0.7 0.2 6.1 5.1 4.4 4.0 7.5 4.8 5.0 4.9 4.8 1060.6 1112.3 1294.3 1448.6 1133.5 1324.8 1367.0 1445.4 1382.8 1002.4 1108.9 1255.6 1413.5 1125.0 1313.0 1242.4 1231.8 1171.9 58.2 3.5 38.7 35.0 8.4 11.8 124.7 213.6 210.9