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RESEARCH

Global 2030:

A tale of fish Supply and Demand

Bobbie Handcock | SCHOOL OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND HUMAN SCIENCES

The Aquaculture/Fisheries Center of Excellence at UAPB has been collaborating with the International Food Policy Research Institute, World Bank, and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation on a global project : “Fish to 2030: the Supply and Demand for Food Fish to 2030.” The comprehensive assessment of the world’s fish supply and demand covers production potential, projected demand for fisheries products, and key economic, technological and environmental factors. The study projects global supply and demand for fish and fish meal and oil using IFFRI’s global food policy model known as the IMPACT Model. The assessment includes 16 food fish categories from the production side, nine food fish/seafood categories from the consumption side, fish meal and fish oil. It deals with 115 country groups, including the United States. Preliminary results reveal that the demand for fish and food fish consumption will increase substantially in Asian countries, particularly in China, south Asian and southeast Asian regions. Net export of fish from China might decrease due to increased local consumption. World prices of fish meal and fish oil are expected to rise over the next 20 years. Food fish consumption in North American is also expected to increase. Results indicate that aquaculture must make a major contribution to fill the growing gap between supply and demand and that investment in sustainable aquaculture will drive sustainable supplies. The aquaculture sector in the North American region has the potential to grow. The UAPB team has shared some preliminary findings with various sections of the U.S. aquaculture/seafood industry that can use this research in designing and/or redesigning business plans. 18

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