Turk Of America 48-49
12/26/08
ruary 2004 it had been 18.5 billion dollars, and this last September 18.6 billion dollars.) Could it be that the reduction in the consumption of the products of important sectors like textiles and automotives in the USA will lead to sectoral changes in Turkey's export strategy to the USA? Even though Turkey’s exports of textiles and automotive products are high, Turkish industry does not consist solely of these two sectors. We manufacture according to world standards all kinds of industrial products and we export them to world markets. Turkey’s present needs are to develop new marketing strategies for the global world, and to expand into new markets. This is why the reduction in the US imports of textiles and automotive products does not reduce the US market’s importance for Turkey. Quite the opposite, by reminding one of the question of how to export the products of other sectors to the USA, it will encourage Turkey. The prestige of the USA as a country, which had sunk during the last 8 years to its lowest level in almost all countries, has slightly recovered with the election of Obama as president. How did Turkish business circles react to the fact that the son of an immigrant has in these days of global crisis been elected president of the USA? As far as you can see, how will this political change affect the economy during the next years? The election of Obama has been perceived as a victory for the oppressed throughout the world. The same goes for the way it was perceived in Turkey. However, Obama is not a member of the oppressed classes. The portrait we have is that of a Harvard graduate, with a successful past, fully accepted and a member of the upper classes. This is why I do not think that we should be expecting great changes in America's political and economic policies during the Obama presidency.
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Exports make Turkey function. Does the devaluation of the Turkish Lira against the dollar in this period of crisis make exporters the hope of Turkey? The fall in the value of the Turkish Lira is good news for Turkish exports. The fact that the NTL had been overvalued for a long time had led Turkish manufacturers to produce with expensive NTL and to sell with cheap foreign exchange. Naturally enough, this kind of a situation minimizes profitability. A more realistic valuation of the prices of foreign exchange will motivate our exporters. Also because an appreciation of foreign exchange will reduce Turkey’s imports, thus contributing favorably to local manufacture. Recently, the low value of foreign exchange had led manufacturers to get their raw materials and semi-finished products from countries other than Turkey, and this created problems for local providers. With the present level of foreign exchange values, this disadvantage will be partially compensated for. However, there is another point besides the revaluation of foreign exchange. And that is that for exporters it is the stability of foreign exchange prices that counts rather than their absolute values. Just as in all other financial markets, speculative movements also exist in foreign exchange markets, and they will always exist. However, excessive fluctuations in foreign exchange markets make planning more difficult for the real sector. Steps taken to alleviate this problem will eliminate the unpredictability facing exporters, and will let them be more optimistic about the future. In 2009, will Turkey's small and medium scale enterprises, which operate thanks to bank credits, face the danger of the banks refu-
sing to provide loans or raising interest rates? What kind of a financial environment will exporting companies face next year? The probability of experiencing problems obtaining loans is rather high in the case of the real sector. It is even being said that these problems have already begun. The minimization of the effects of the crisis requires the strengthening of credit resources for our real sector, not their reduction. It is said by many that Turkey’s banking sector is strong, and this makes us think that the banking sector will understand our problems. It is very important for our exporters that extra resources be transferred to Eximbank to strengthen its capital structure, and that the limits concerning the credits that companies can get from Eximbank be raised. In addition to this, it would be good if resources equivalent to 1% of total yearly exports were transferred to the Price Support and Stability Fund. The deferral of social security premiums and of other similar contributions for companies that do not fire employees in the near future, the freezing of energy prices until the economy is back to normal, and the introduction of advantages for the payment of energy bills to industrialists would all be welcome as palliatives. Is it possible that the fact that the economy of the European Union, which is Turkey's greatest export partner, is stagnant, that Japan is facing the same situation, and that the same goes for the USA, will make it impossible for us to find alternative markets? Can you say anything about when we will get back to normal? Every crisis certainly includes opportunities. For example, the cri-
sis will mean that European companies will order in smaller quantities. It is at this point that our geographical proximity to Europe and our logistical advantages will become important. What I mean is that European countries will prefer to order from Turkey, when the quantities are smaller, rather than from the countries of the Middle and Far East, so as to be able to get better quality products in a shorter time. This is why in 2009 there will be advantageous situations for some of our sectors, and especially for the textile and garment making sectors. In addition to this, we have also got to increase our efforts to find alternative markets. Recently we have seen that Turkish exporters have become increasingly interested in neighboring countries and regions. The African market has become a center of this interest. For example, during the first 9 months of the year, Turkey increased its exports to the United Arab Emirates by 209 percent, to Qatar by 203 percent, to Kuwait by 177 percent, to Lebanon by 121 percent, to South Africa by 112.5 percent, to India by 85 percent, and to China by 57.5 percent. Consequently, we can say that in these days of crisis we have to expect that our main markets will shrink, and focus more on these rising markets. If instead of worrying about the crisis we can take pro-active steps and turn our energies towards new markets, I am confident that nothing will happen to us in this crisis. However, it is not easy to fix an exact date, because this crisis in not centered in Turkey. Consequently, as developed economies continue to try to find solutions for this crisis that they caused, we shall have to act fast and to try to find solutions as quickly as possible.� TurkofAmerica • 27