Trefethen Advisors
market update
C o n v e n i e n c e S t o r e ⎟ R e t a i l P e t r o l e u m M a r k e t N e w s Trefethen Advisors, LLC is pleased to bring you the April 2010 edition of its market update. This periodical is designed to provide current information on the capital and equity markets, convenience store and retail petroleum industry transaction activity and company valuations, and related news and commentary.
Version 6 Issue 1 | April 2010
INSIDE market update
2
|
Money and Commodity Markets
Market Summary
3
|
Capital Markets
Over the last month, the capital market pricing across all tenors have increased as a result of the recovering economy, concern over the long‐term impact of increasing government deficits and un‐winding of the Fed’s economic stimulus efforts. The general equity markets posted strong gains over the last month with the S&P 500 increasing nearly 6% buoyed by growing consensus that the economy is, in fact, in recovery. Retailers fared better with the Spider Retail Index posting a 12% increase for the month. Equity performance of pure play convenience retailers included the Trefethen Advisors Index (ATD, CASY, PTRY, SUSS) was off approximately 1% for the month and 6% for the year to date.
4
|
Equity Markets
6
|
Public Company Information
10
|
Comparative Graphics
11
|
M&A Valuations and Transactions
12
|
Industry and Company News (Continued)
14
|
Featured Article
Earnings Announcements About Trefethen Advisors, LLC
Alimentation Couche‐Tard Inc. (ATD) reported on March 9, 2010 the results for its third quarter of fiscal 2010 ending January 31, 2010. The company’s results for the quarter were lower than the same period last year primarily as a result of a decrease in motor fuel gross margins in the US. Lower fuel gross margins were partially offset by the increase in same‐store merchandise sales in Canada and the US, and by the contribution from stores acquired, and a lower income tax rate. Highlights include:
Trefethen Advisors, LLC is a privately-owned investment and merchant banking firm focused on providing sound advice and capital to the multi-unit retail industry.
Services Include: - Mergers & Acquisitions (Buy-Side, Sell-Side) - Financial Restructuring and Distressed M&A
Income Net income for the quarter was $54.8 million, or $0.29 per diluted share, compared to $71.1 million, or $0.36 per diluted share, for the third quarter of fiscal 2009. EBITDA EBITDA for the third quarter of fiscal 2010 was $141.3 million, versus $168.1 million for the third quarter last year.
- Corporate Finance / Recapitalizations - Strategic Transactions (Asset Optimization, Value Creation, Liquidity, Taxation)
Private Capital Products Include: - Private Equity
Merchandise & Service Merchandise and service revenues for the third quarter increased 10.50% overall and 3.0% on a comparable store basis in the US, and 4.9% in Canada over the corresponding period last year. The merchandise and service gross margin in the US was 32.9%, compared with 32.8% a year ago. In Canada, the merchandise and service gross margin was 33.1%, compared with 33.7% a year ago. Total merchandise and service gross profit for the quarter was $565.4, up 10.2% from a year ago. Fuel Fuel gallons sold in the US during third quarter increased 3.9%, but decreased 0.2% on a comparable basis. In Canada, liters sold increased 8.2% during the third quarter, and 1.4% on a comparable store basis. Retail fuel margin in the US for the third quarter was $0.128 cents per gallon, versus $0.182 cents per gallon for the same period last year.
- Mezzanine Financing (Sub-Debt, Preferred Equity) - Sale-Leaseback Financing For more information, contact us at (480) 922-9966 or visit our website @ www.trefethenadvisors.com. 2010 Trefethen Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved. Market update is published by Trefethen Advisors, LLC. Sources include various market participants deemed to be reliable. We do not guarantee such information, undertake to advise you of changes or make any representations as to its accuracy nor does such information represent the opinion of Trefethen Advisors, LLC or any of its affiliates.
(Continued on Page 12)
1
- Debt Financing (Bridge, High Leverage, DIP)
Money & Commodity Markets Money Markets 4/5/10
‐ 1 Wk
‐ 1 Mo
‐ 6 Mos
‐ 1 Yr
6 Month
0.24%
0.23%
0.19%
0.13%
0.40%
1 Year
0.41%
0.38%
0.33%
0.34%
0.58%
5 Year
2.67%
2.60%
2.34%
2.21%
1.85%
10 Year
3.94%
3.86%
3.68%
3.22%
2.89%
3.50%
30 Year
4.81%
4.77%
4.64%
4.02%
3.69%
3.00%
3 Year
1.89%
1.79%
1.66%
1.81%
1.90%
2.00%
5 Year
2.86%
2.71%
2.55%
2.58%
2.47%
1.50%
10 Year
3.96%
3.79%
3.64%
3.39%
3.13%
30 Year
4.62%
4.50%
4.39%
3.91%
3.49%
1 Month
0.25%
0.25%
0.23%
0.25%
0.50%
3 Month
0.44%
0.44%
0.38%
0.62%
1.72%
1 Year
0.92%
0.91%
0.84%
1.24%
1.95%
Treasury Rates
Swap Curve 5.00% 4.50% 4.00%
Swaps
2.50%
3 Year
5 year
4/5/2010
10 year
‐1 Month
30 year
‐6 Month
‐1 Year
LIBOR Featured Economic Graphic
Chain Store Monthly Same Store Sales % Change 6.00
Other Key Rates
4.00
Prime
3.25%
3.25%
3.25%
3.25%
3.25%
Discount
0.75%
0.75%
0.75%
0.50%
0.50%
2.00 ‐
Foreign Exchange
(2.00)
Dollar Index (USD/Basket)
81.01
81.68
80.43
76.64
84.17
Pound / USD
1.53
1.49
1.50
1.59
1.48
Euro / USD
1.35
1.34
1.36
1.46
1.34
USD / Yen
94.40
92.52
89.02
89.53
100.99
USD / CAD
1.01
1.03
1.03
1.07
1.24
(4.00) (6.00) (8.00) (10.00) Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2008
Jun
July
2009
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2010
Source: ICSC Market Commentary Fixed income yields increased slightly over the last 30 days, reflecting the market's concerns over government deficit spending and constrained optimism regarding the economy and the Fed's exit strategy. Over the past month, the US Dollar posted a modest rally against major currencies, and then declined in the past week as sovereign debt issues eased. This issue , our featured economic statistic is chain store same store sales as reported by ICSC, which cover approximately 80 chains, and confirm a consistent, although rather modest, recovery in retail sales vs 2009.
Commodity Markets 4/5/10
‐ 1 Wk
‐ 1 Mo
‐ 6 Mos
‐ 1 Yr
Crude (W. TX Cushing Spot)
84.87
80.20
78.70
70.82
48.39
90
18
Crack Spread (NYMEX 3‐2‐1)
11.31
10.98
11.45
3.78
9.52
80
16
Unleaded Retail Gas (US Avg) 2.83
2.81
2.71
2.46
2.04
70
14
60
12
Energy Markets
2.17
2.15
1.82
1.46
Rack to Retail Spread
0.55
0.64
0.56
0.64
0.58
Other Commodity Markets Gold
1,126
1,110
1,135
1,017
893
Silver
18
17
17
17
13
Wheat
471
478
506
487
646
Corn
347
356
376
363
454
50
10
40
8
30
6
20
4
10
2 0
0 Dec‐08
Crack Spread
2.27
Spot Price
Unleaded Rack (US Avg)
Crude Spot vs Refining Spread
Feb‐09
Apr‐09
Source: Bloomberg
Jun‐09
Aug‐09
Oct‐09
Spot Price
Dec‐09
Feb‐10
321 Crack M1
Featured Commodity Graphic Rack vs Retail Price
Regular Gasoline Deliveries By Prime Supplier 2.40
320,000 310,000 300,000 290,000 280,000
3.00 2.80
2.20
2.60
2.00
2.40
1.80
2.20 2.00
1.60
1.80
1.40
1.60 1.40
1.20
1.20 1.00
1.00
270,000 Jan Average gallons/Day: Source:DOE
Feb
Mar
Apr 2008
May
Jun 2009
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec‐08
Dec
Mar‐09
Jun‐09
Sep‐09 Rack Price
2010
Gross Retail Price $
Reg. Unleaded Rack Price $
330,000
Dec‐09
Mar‐10
Retail Price
Market Commentary Crude prices rallied nearly 8% over the last month, which resulted in compressed retail margins in many parts of the country. Refining spreads, after a period of stability, posted a recent increase. This issue, our featured commodity graphic focuses on gasoline demand measured by average deliveries of gasoline by prime suppliers. Data through January 2010 show a decrease in demand over the pervious years, reflecting the weak economy and, perhaps, increases in fuel efficiency and driving behavior trends.
2
Capital Markets
Issuers / Providers
Senior Term Debt
Senior Debt Asset Based
Mortgage Financing
Bank and non- bank
Bank and non- bank
Reduced base of
lender s ( e.g., capt ive
lender s ( e.g., lif e
t r adit ional lender s
High Yield
banks, st and- alone
of lar ge commer cial
r egional, r egional and
f inance companies, and
banks, st and- alone
local banks.
f inance ar ms of lar ge
f inance companies, and
diver sif ied
f inance ar ms of lar ge
Inst it ut ional invest or s.
syndicat ion on a best
Pr ivat e equit y / hedge
subsidiar ies of lar ge
f unds and capt ive
commer cial banks and
subsidiar ies of lar ge
st and- alone f inance
commer cial banks.
Sale Lease‐Back
Individual r et ail invest or s, pr ivat e r eal est at e companies, REIT' s, developer s and pr ivat e equit y / hedge f unds.
Non- amor t izing; bullet mat ur it y. Suggest ed
t er m loan. Issue size may det er mine need f or
/ hedge f unds, capt ive
companies.
Revolver and/ or f unded
General Structure / Issue Size
Private Equity
Pr ivat e invest ment f unds
subs. of lar ge commer cial companies, capt ive subs
including nat ional, super -
Mezzanine / Sub‐ Debt
minimum t r ansact ion Revolver - gener ally.
size of $125 t o $150
Ter m loan.
million. Absolut e
ef f or t s or under wr it t en
Amor t izing t er m loan $5
Issue size gener ally $20
t o $50 million.
t o $200 million.
Fr om a single asset t o a t ot al issue size up t o $300 million.
minimum EBITDA of $30
basis.
million. 7.5%t o 12%depending on t enant cr edit , r emaining
Fixed: Swaps + appr ox.
Cost of Capital
Libor + 375- 500 bps.
Libor + appr ox. 350- 450
350- 450 bps.
Tr easur ies plus 350 t o 650
bps.
Var iable: Libor + appr ox.
bps.
350- 450 bps.
pr imar y lease t er m,
Gener ally pr icing in t he t eens. May include
20%- 30%.
escalat ions, unit economics, asset qualit y
war r ant s.
and concept ( as appr opr iat e) .
Interest Type
Fixed t o swaps and var iable.
Capacit y limit ed by
Advance Rate
Term / Amortization
Long- t er m f ixed r at e Var iable.
of A/ R and invent or y
lever age.
balances.
year s.
1t o 3 year s - gener ally. Int er est only.
Collateral / Security
guar ant ies most likely r equir ed f or smaller
May include pr ef er r ed
Fixed - wit h per iodic
dividends - cash or PIK.
escalat ions.
60%t o 70%loan t o r eal
Gener ally up t o 4X f ir m
cash f low depending on
est at e value.
cash f low.
nat ur e of asset s ( f ee RE vs leased RE) .
10 t o 30 year s.
A/ R, invent or y and ot her
Specif ic r eal est at e
available asset s.
asset s.
Invest or s will t ypically desir e aggr essive levels of lever age in or der t o invest ed equit y.
Gener ally 7 t o 10 year s.
Ter m is gener ally less
Non- amor t izing; bullet
t han 7 year s.
mat ur it y.
Amor t izat ion var ies.
Pr imar y t er m 15 t o 20 Gener ally 3 t o 5 year s.
year s plus mult iple t enant opt ion t er ms.
Senior , senior -
Fir st or second lien on all asset s. Per sonal
put r ight s and ot her
subor dinat ed lien on
guar ant ies may be
subst ant ial minor it y
specif ic or all long- t er m
r equir ed f or smaller
pr ot ect ions. May have
asset s.
companies.
out r ight cont r ol.
companies.
100%of r eal est at e value.
maximize r et ur n on
subor dinat ed or
Senior lien on all longt er m asset s. Per sonal
Fixed / Var iable. May include PIK component .
Gener ally up t o 6X f ir m
Capacit y limit ed by asset
4.5x lease adjust ed
Ter m of 5 year s.
Fixed.
var iable) .
lever age. Availabilit y up cover age. Typically <70%
Amor t izat ion up t o 20
f inancing ( can be
War r ant s / shar es wit h Lessor owns asset s.
Moder at e balance sheet
Typical Covenants
Minimum balance sheet
Numer ous balance sheet
and income st at ement covenant s ( subject t o
Numer ous balance sheet
Numer ous balance sheet
covenant s. Moder at e
and income st at ement
and income st at ement
and income st at ement
income st at ement
covenant s - but gener ally
covenant s.
covenant s.
cover age t ypes of
less r est r ict ive t han bank
covenant s.
covenant s.
senior lender r equir ement s) .
May
Cont r ol pr ovisions / boar d r epr esent at ions.
Minimal covenant s.
cont ain cont r ol pr ovisions.
Yield maint enance f or
Call Protection
f ixed lit t le or no pr emium f or f loat ing r at e.
Pr e- payable wit h lit t le or no call pr emiums.
Yield maint enance f or
Non- callable f or 3/ 4
f ixed lit t le or no pr emium
year s; t her eaf t er at set
f or f loat ing r at e.
pr emiums.
Non- callable / makewhole payment s.
N/ A
Least r est r ict ive
Other Advantages / Disadvantages
No public disclosur e of
No public disclosur e of
No public disclosur e of
f inancial per f or mance.
f inancial per f or mance.
f inancial per f or mance.
covenant package. S&P
No public disclosur e of
Negot iable cont r ol and
and Moody' s r at ing
f inancial per f or mance.
gover nance issues. No
r equir ed. Public
Pr emium pr icing t o
public disclosur e of
disclosur e r equir ement s /
public bond.
f inancial per f or mance.
Sar banes Oxley.
Select lender s ar e
mar ket is dr iven by
The high yield mar ket
get t ing mor e act ive in
cur r ent economic
may ent er t ain lower
t he indust r y.
condit ions, cont r act ion
Under wr it ing is
in t he t r adit ional bank
conser vat ive, but t her e is
mar ket and a r enewed
gr eat er r isk in t he sear ch
debt available.
f ocus on st r uct ur e and
f or yield.
May be expensive t o pr e- r at ed issuer s as invest or s pay.
may be willing t o t ake on
collat er al by issuer s.
abilit y t o cont r ol t he pr oper t y f or up t o 50 year s t hr ough opt ions.
include a st r ong,
May be usef ul f or gr owt h
sust ainable cash f low,
capit al / acquisit ions /
gr owt h pot ent ial in
lar ge pr oject f inancing.
r evenue and cash f low,
Requir ement s would
liquidit y r esult ing in
st r ong asset base and
include cur r ent or near
compr essed cap r at es.
exper ienced
t er m pr of it abilit y, st r ong
management t eams wit h
management t eam.
owner ship posit ion.
3
Minimal covenant s, higher advance r at es and
Cr edit r equir ement s
The Asset Based Lending
Other General Comments
N/ A
Mar ket is gaining some
Equity Markets $ in Local Currency
($M M , Except per Share Dat a)
Security Indexes Dow Jones Industrial Avg S&P 500 SPDR S&P Retail ETF Trefethen Advisors C‐Store Convenience ALIMENTATION COUCHE‐TARD ‐B CASEY'S GENERAL STORES INC PANTRY INC SUSSER HOLDINGS CORP
Ticker
Most Recent Qtr End
XRT
Last
52W High 52W Low
(4/ 1/ 10)
10,927 1,178 41.80 27.33
10,956 1,181 41.98 27.33
7,751 815 23.39 16.80
Mkt Cap
Net Debt
Enterprise TTM LTM Value EPS EBITDA
ATD.B CASY PTRY SUSS
01/10 01/10 12/10 12/09
18.42 31.65 12.57 8.57
22.24 33.06 25.97 14.86
12.24 23.58 12.00 8.11
3,379 1,611 285 147
724 29 1,058 403
4,103 1,641 1,343 551
1.44 2.16 (0.25) 0.12
601 259 208 89
Refining ALON USA ENERGY INC DELEK US HOLDINGS INC HESS CORP HOLLY CORP MARATHON OIL CORP MURPHY OIL CORP SUNOCO INC TESORO CORP WESTERN REFINING INC
ALJ DK HES HOC MRO MUR SUN TSO WNR
12/09 12/09 12/09 12/09 12/09 12/09 12/09 12/09 12/09
7.47 7.40 63.70 28.47 32.09 57.64 30.76 14.39 5.58
15.90 12.41 69.74 33.53 35.71 65.12 34.49 18.77 16.30
6.52 5.65 46.33 16.71 27.15 43.46 21.45 10.62 4.03
405 402 20,845 1,512 22,732 11,017 3,597 2,023 499
897 249 3,105 582 6,475 273 2,087 1,428 1,042
1,310 651 24,094 2,682 29,207 11,290 6,246 3,451 1,541
(2.46) 0.03 2.28 0.35 1.71 3.87 (3.12) (1.02) (4.50)
18 4 4,181 185 5,507 2,265 613 443 281
Major Oil BP PLC CHEVRON CORP CONOCOPHILLIPS EXXON MOBIL CORP ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC‐A SHS TOTAL SA
BP CVX COP XOM RDSA FP
12/09 12/09 12/09 12/09 12/09 12/09
631.30 76.69 52.02 67.61 1,924.50 43.64
640.10 81.09 54.13 76.54 1,973.00 46.74
426.50 60.88 37.52 63.56 1,403.00 34.72
181,021 154,021 79,429 319,205 179,520 102,485
26,039 1,786 28,111 (1,257) 25,314 14,581
207,581 156,454 108,130 322,771 206,538 118,053
0.88 5.26 3.26 3.99 2.04 3.79
33,392 26,432 17,606 38,156 29,079 22,234
Drug CVS CAREMARK CORP WALGREEN CO
CVS WAG
12/09 02/10
36.23 37.75
38.27 40.69
27.38 26.34
50,378 36,936
10,084 60,499 (746) 36,190
2.59 2.14
7,827 4,434
Restaurant BURGER KING HOLDINGS INC DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC MCDONALD'S CORP STARBUCKS CORP YUM! BRANDS INC
BKC DRI MCD SBUX YUM
12/10 02/10 12/09 12/10 12/09
21.09 44.50 67.58 24.24 39.20
24.10 45.29 67.71 26.00 39.24
15.61 29.94 51.76 10.95 28.66
2,853 6,256 72,713 18,020 18,396
719 1,433 8,782 (807) 2,913
3,572 7,689 81,496 17,226 21,398
1.51 2.98 4.15 0.75 2.29
436 954 7,996 1,505 2,143
Grocery KROGER CO SAFEWAY INC
KR SWY
01/10 12/09
21.88 25.34
24.80 25.41
19.45 17.87
14,139 9,852
7,632 4,430
21,845 14,282
0.10 (2.84)
3,730 2,517
Home Improvement HOME DEPOT INC LOWE'S COS INC
HD LOW
01/10 01/10
32.38 24.54
32.98 25.31
22.27 18.02
54,830 35,421
8,255 4,023
63,085 39,444
1.56 1.20
6,609 4,846
Discount DOLLAR GENERAL CORP FAMILY DOLLAR STORES WAL‐MART STORES INC
DG FDO WMT
01/10 11/10 01/10
25.52 37.00 55.49
26.51 37.20 56.27
21.00 25.52 47.35
8,698 5,120 208,587
3,181 11,879 (119) 5,001 244,180 35,593
N/A 2.15 3.73
1,210 639 31,107
4
Selected Financial Data (US$)
Equity Markets (Continued) Price / Earnings
($M M , Except per Share Dat a)
Total Debt / LTM Lease Adj LTM EBITDA Leverage (Est)
LTM
CY (Est)
+1Y (Est)
LTM
CY (Est)
+1Y (Est)
Total Debt
ATD.B CASY PTRY SUSS
12.7 14.7 (50.3) 71.4
12.4 14.1 11.0 21.0
11.3 14.1 8.3 9.5
6.8 6.3 6.5 6.2
6.6 6.2 5.7 5.6
6.1 6.1 5.4 4.8
862 182 1,238 421
1.4 0.7 6.0 4.7
3.2 0.7 6.5 5.8
Refining ALON USA ENERGY INC DELEK US HOLDINGS INC HESS CORP HOLLY CORP MARATHON OIL CORP MURPHY OIL CORP SUNOCO INC TESORO CORP WESTERN REFINING INC
ALJ DK HES HOC MRO MUR SUN TSO WNR
(3.0) 246.7 27.9 81.3 18.8 14.9 (9.9) (14.1) (1.2)
N/A N/A 14.5 16.6 9.4 12.6 28.7 654.1 N/A
45.5 19.3 10.3 9.0 6.3 8.9 12.6 8.9 22.5
72.8 166.9 5.8 14.5 5.3 5.0 10.2 7.8 5.5
11.9 6.7 4.0 8.4 3.8 3.9 8.7 5.9 6.5
5.5 6.0 3.3 5.8 3.0 3.3 6.3 3.8 4.6
937 317 4,467 707 8,532 1,353 2,464 1,841 1,117
52.1 81.3 1.1 3.8 1.5 0.6 4.0 4.2 4.0
22.7 24.0 1.8 4.2 1.7 1.0 4.7 5.5 4.2
Major Oil BP PLC CHEVRON CORP CONOCOPHILLIPS EXXON MOBIL CORP ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC‐A SHS TOTAL SA
BP CVX COP XOM RDSA FP
713.4 14.6 16.0 16.9 941.6 11.5
9.3 9.8 8.9 11.8 10.1 9.7
8.0 7.8 7.0 9.4 8.1 8.6
6.2 5.9 6.1 8.5 7.1 5.3
4.8 3.6 3.9 4.9 4.6 4.3
4.2 3.1 3.4 4.2 4.0 3.9
34,627 10,608 28,653 9,605 35,033 26,554
1.0 0.4 1.6 0.3 1.2 1.2
1.7 0.6 1.9 0.7 2.1 1.4
Drug CVS CAREMARK CORP WALGREEN CO
CVS WAG
14.0 17.6
13.0 16.7
11.7 14.2
7.7 8.2
7.5 7.8
6.9 6.8
11,175 2,355
1.4 0.5
2.8 2.9
Restaurant BURGER KING HOLDINGS INC DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC MCDONALD'S CORP STARBUCKS CORP YUM! BRANDS INC
BKC DRI MCD SBUX YUM
14.0 14.9 16.3 32.3 17.1
15.5 15.2 15.3 21.9 16.3
13.8 13.7 14.0 19.2 14.6
8.2 8.1 10.2 11.4 10.0
8.1 8.1 9.5 9.6 9.2
7.5 7.5 9.0 8.8 8.4
859 1,693 10,578 550 3,266
2.0 1.8 1.3 0.4 1.5
3.6 2.5 2.1 2.8 2.8
Security Indexes Dow Jones Industrial Avg S&P 500 SPDR S&P Retail ETF Trefethen Advisors C‐Store Convenience ALIMENTATION COUCHE‐TARD ‐B CASEY'S GENERAL STORES INC PANTRY INC SUSSER HOLDINGS CORP
Ticker
XRT
Grocery KROGER CO SAFEWAY INC
KR SWY
218.8 12.5 (8.9) 14.0
11.2 12.4
5.9 5.7
5.7 5.5
5.4 5.4
8,056 4,902
2.2 1.9
3.2 2.9
Home Improvement HOME DEPOT INC LOWE'S COS INC
HD LOW
20.8 20.5
17.7 17.4
15.0 14.5
9.5 8.1
8.8 7.6
8.1 6.9
9,682 5,080
1.5 1.0
2.2 1.6
Discount DOLLAR GENERAL CORP FAMILY DOLLAR STORES WAL‐MART STORES INC
DG FDO WMT
N/A 17.2 14.9
15.8 14.9 13.9
13.5 13.5 12.6
9.8 7.8 7.8
8.1 7.1 7.3
7.3 6.7 6.8
3,403 250 41,320
2.8 0.4 1.3
N/A 3.0 1.6
5
Leverage
EV / EBITDA
Alimentation Couche‐Tard, Inc. Alimentation Couche‐Tard Inc. operates a network of 24‐hour convenience stores. in the United States and Share Price & Volume Canada. The Company offers a variety of food and other products, fast‐food services, lottery and gasoline Share Price $ CAD 25 sales, and automated banking machines.
Volume
3.5 M 3.0 M
20
USD/CAD
1.01
2.5 M
Valuation Analytics
11/30/2009 4/7/2009 4/1/2010
18.42
3,405
Relative Stock Price Performance YTD Change ($) YTD Change (%) Spider Retail Index YTD Change (%)
4/24/05 8,037 1,558 1,299 259 343 155 155 0.75
Sales Gross Profit Operating Expense Operating Income EBITDA Net Income Net Income (Cont'd Ops) Diluted EPS (Cont'd Ops) Margins
04/2009 1/31/10 22.24 12.24 804,181 18.28 ‐17.2% 50.5% 61.8% 129.9 3,379 862 ‐ ‐ 138 4,103
2.0 M
10
1.5 M 1.0 M
5
.5 M
0
.0 M A-09
M-09
J-09
J-09
A-09
S-09
O-09
N-09
D-09
J-10
F-10
Market Data Dividend Yield Beta Equity Float Short Interest (Short Ratio to Daily Trading Volume, # Shares) 1 Yr Total Return YTD Return Adjusted Beta Analysts Recommendations Consensus Ratings (1‐5)
Valuation Enterprise Value / Revenue (2.40) Enterprise Value / EBITDA ‐11.5% Price / Earnings (P/E) 17.4% Summary Income Statement FY Ended 4/30/06 4/29/07 4/27/08 4/26/09 10,157 12,087 15,370 15,781 1,792 2,005 2,224 2,437 1,460 1,646 1,911 2,032 332 358 312 405 439 492 485 588 196 196 189 254 196 196 189 254 0.94 0.94 0.92 1.29
Last Fiscal 0.3 7.0 14.2 Prev LTM 2/1/09 16,493 2,398 2,032 366 547 231 231 1.17
LTM 0.3 6.8 12.7
Cur LTM 1/31/10 15,430 2,482 2,079 403 601 272 272 1.44
FY+1 04/10 Y 16,190 N/A N/A N/A 619 286 N/A 1.47
FY+1 0.3 6.6 12.4
FY+2 04/11 Y 17,604 N/A N/A N/A 667 309 N/A 1.62
19.4%
17.6%
16.6%
14.5%
15.4%
14.5%
16.1%
3.2%
3.3%
3.0%
2.0%
2.6%
2.2%
2.6%
EBITDA (%)
4.3%
4.3%
4.1%
3.2%
3.7%
3.3%
3.9%
Net Income (%) Fuel Operations Fuel Volume Fuel Margin ($) Fuel Margin (CPG) Same Store Fuel in USA (%) Merchandise Merchandise Sales Merchandise Margin ($) Merchandise Margin (%) Same Store Merch in USA (%) Other Information Store Count (Co‐Op) Capital Expenditures Balance Sheet Assets Total Current Assets Long‐Term Assets Fixed, Net Other Long Term Investments Total Long‐Term Assets Total Assets Liabilities Short‐Term Liabilities (Excl Debt & Cap Leases) Long‐Term Liabilities Long‐Term Debt (Incl Cap Leases) Other Long‐Term Liabilities Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Paid in Capital Preferred Equity & Minority Retained Earnings Total Shareholders' Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Credit Ratings Long‐Term Rating Long‐Term Outlook Credit Metrics Funded Debt / EBITDA
1.9%
1.9%
1.6%
1.2%
1.6%
1.4%
1.8% Quarterly Margins ($)
2,232 307 0.138 6.3%
2,515 376 0.150 6.0%
3,020 431 0.143 2.9%
3,457 476 0.138 ‐0.2%
3,215 636 0.198 ‐6.4%
3,505 4,009 565 610 0.161 0.152 N/A N/A
3,804 1,251 32.9% 10.4%
4,239 1,415 33.4% 5.2%
4,617 1,574 34.1% 3.3%
5,201 1,748 33.6% 2.5%
5,416 1,801 33.3% 0.6%
5,324 5,577 1,779 1,855 33.4% 33.3% N/A N/A
3,605 183
3,632 245
4,072 4,068 4,395 4,370 4,396 373 280 238 248 273 Graphics Annual Same Store Sales / Volume in US (% Chg)
1
FQ+1 04/10 Q4 3,788 N/A N/A N/A 126 50 N/A 0.26
FQ+2 07/10 Q1 4,230 N/A N/A N/A 173 97 N/A 0.47
500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Fiscal 2007
964
Fiscal 2009
Fiscal 2010
Merch Margin
% Change
1,949 655 ‐ 2,604 3,568 719 862 453 2,034
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Fiscal 2007
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Fiscal 2008
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Fiscal 2009
Same Store Gallons USA
338 ‐ 1,196 1,534 3,568
Q2
Q3
Fiscal 2010
Same Store Merch/Service USA
Earnings vs Valuation
20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0
7/19/2009
10/11/2009
2/1/2009
4/26/2009
7/20/2008
T12 Diluted EPS
10/12/2008
2/3/2008
4/27/2008
7/22/2007
10/14/2007
2/4/2007
4/29/2007
12.2% 18.9%
7/23/2006
-
1/29/2006
3.2 36.0% 1.3
30.0 25.0
10/15/2006
1.4
PE Ratio
EPS USD
4/30/2006
1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 -
BB+ STABLE
18.3%
Fiscal 2008 Fuel Margin
10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 (2.0) (4.0) (6.0) (8.0) (10.0) (12.0)
PE
Lease adjusted leverage is calculated as follows: (FY+1 Rent * 8) + LT Debt)) / EBITDAR
6
FY+2 0.2 6.1 11.3
600.0
1
Lease Adjusted Leverage Total Debt / Capital Current Ratio Profitability Metrics Return on Capital (LTM) Return on Common Equity (5 Yr, LTM) Notes
0.7% 0.33 128 0.67 42.5% ‐11.3% 0.55 9 4.1
0.7%
Operating Income (%)
Gross Profit (%)
M-10
Next Yr. Est
Latest Fiscal Year LTM as of 52‐Week High (CAD) 52‐Week Low (CAD) Daily Volume (30 Day Avg) Current Price (CAD & USD) 52‐Week High (% Chg) 52‐Week Low (% Chg) % 52‐Week Price Range High/Low Shares Outstanding Market Capitalization (CAD & USD) Total Debt Preferred Stock Minority Interests Cash & Equivalents Enterprise Value
15
1/31/2010
Exchange Rate
Cur Yr Est
($USD M M , Except per Share Dat a and Where Otherwise Not ed)
Casey's General Stores, Inc. Casey's General Stores, Inc. operates convenience stores in the Midwest. The Company's stores, operating under the name Casey's General Store, carry a selection of food, beverages, tobacco products, health and beauty aids, automotive products, and other non‐food items, as well as sells gasoline.
Share Price & Volume Share Price $
Volume 2.0 M
35
1.8 M
30
1.6 M
($M M , Except per Share Dat a)
25
Valuation Analytics
20
1.2 M
15
.8 M
10
.6 M
10/22/2009 5/13/2009 4/1/2010
Relative Stock Price Performance YTD Change ($) YTD Change (%) Spider Retail Index YTD Change (%)
4/30/05 2,789 457 379 78 130 37 42 0.84
1
M-09
J-09
J-09
A-09
S-09
O-09
N-09
D-09
J-10
F-10
Market Data Dividend Yield Beta Equity Float Short Interest (Short Ratio to Daily Trading Volume, # Shares) 1 Yr Total Return YTD Return Adjusted Beta Analysts Recommendations Consensus Ratings (1‐5)
Valuation Enterprise Value / Revenue (0.26) Enterprise Value / EBITDA ‐0.8% Price / Earnings (P/E) 17.4% Summary Income Statement FY Ended 4/30/06 4/30/07 4/30/08 4/30/09 3,494 4,025 4,829 4,688 526 583 686 723 419 475 542 574 107 109 144 150 164 173 211 219 60 62 85 86 63 63 85 86 1.24 1.25 1.67 1.68
Last Fiscal 0.3 7.5 18.8 Prev LTM 1/31/09 5,012 710 565 145 214 85 85 1.66
Cur LTM 1/31/10 4,338 775 589 187 259 111 111 2.16
FY+1 04/10 Y 4,596 N/A N/A N/A 264 115 N/A 2.24
14.5% 2.7% 4.3%
14.2% 3.0% 4.4%
15.4% 3.2% 4.7%
14.2% 2.9% 4.3%
1.3%
1.7%
1.5%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1,010 109 0.108 1.9%
1,098 125 0.114 4.4%
1,194 124 0.104 1.4%
1,215 169 0.139 ‐2.0%
1,242 160 0.129 1.0%
1,223 1,266 170 166 0.139 0.131 N/A N/A
928 347 37.4% 4.8%
1,014 401 39.5% 5.7%
1,143 459 40.1% 4.6%
1,270 517 40.7% 7.3%
1,366 564 41.3% 5.9%
1,317 1,415 539 594 42.0% 40.9% N/A N/A
1,339 95
1,394 100
1,448 1,454 1,478 1,469 1,507 91 91 147 120 142 Graphics Annual Same Store Sales / Volume (% Chg)
M-10
6.1%
LTM 0.4 6.3 14.7
15.1% 3.1% 4.7%
FY+1 0.4 6.2 14.1
FY+2 04/11 Y 5,191 N/A N/A N/A 268 114 N/A 2.25
0.24% 0.78 50.05 3.24 17.2% ‐0.5% 0.85 9 3.9 FY+2 0.3 6.1 14.1
FQ+1 04/10 Q4 1,140 N/A N/A N/A 52 20 N/A 0.38
FQ+2 07/10 Q1 1,361 N/A N/A N/A 83 38 N/A 0.76
17.9% 4.3% 6.0% 2.5% Quarterly Margins ($) 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Fiscal 2007
299 ‐ 988 65 ‐ 1,053 1,352
12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 (2.0) (4.0) (6.0)
196 ‐ 182 167 546
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Fiscal 2007
Fiscal 2009
Fiscal 2010
Merch Margin
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Fiscal 2008
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Fiscal 2009
Q2
Q3
Fiscal 2010
Same Store Gallons Change Average Grocery & Other Merch. Same-Store
64 ‐ 742 806 1,352
Earnings vs Valuation 2.50
EPS
PE Ratio 25.00
2.00
20.00
‐ ‐
1.50
15.00
1.00
10.00
0.7
0.50
5.00
0.7 18.4% 1.3
11.2%
Fiscal 2008 Fuel Margin
% Change
Q1
-
PE
Next Yr. Est
1/31/2010
Cur Yr Est
7/31/2009
10/31/2009
4/30/2009
1/31/2009
7/31/2008
T12 Diluted EPS
Lease adjusted leverage is calculated as follows: (FY+1 Rent * 8) + LT Debt)) / EBITDAR
10/31/2008
4/30/2008
1/31/2008
7/31/2007
10/31/2007
4/30/2007
1/31/2007
-
7/31/2006
12.0% 14.4%
7
.0 M A-09
16.4% 2.8% 4.7%
1
Lease Adjusted Leverage Total Debt / Capital Current Ratio Profitability Metrics Return on Capital (LTM) Return on Common Equity (5 Yr, LTM) Notes
.2 M
0
10/31/2006
Net Income (%) Fuel Operations Fuel Volume Fuel Margin ($) Fuel Margin (CPG) Same Store Fuel (%) Merchandise Merchandise Sales Merchandise Margin ($) Merchandise Margin (%) Same Store Grocery & Other Merch (%) Other Information Store Count (Co‐Op) Capital Expenditures Balance Sheet Assets Total Current Assets Long‐Term Assets Fixed, Net Other Long Term Investments Total Long‐Term Assets Total Assets Liabilities Short‐Term Liabilities (Excl Debt & Cap Leases) Long‐Term Liabilities Long‐Term Debt (Incl Cap Leases) Other Long‐Term Liabilities Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Paid in Capital Preferred Equity & Minority Retained Earnings Total Shareholders' Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Credit Ratings Long‐Term Rating Long‐Term Outlook Credit Metrics Funded Debt / EBITDA
.4 M
5
4/30/2006
Sales Gross Profit Operating Expense Operating Income EBITDA Net Income Net Income (Cont'd Ops) Diluted EPS (Cont'd Ops) Margins Gross Profit (%) Operating Income (%) EBITDA (%)
1.0 M
04/2009 1/31/10 33.06 23.58 395,522 31.65 ‐4.3% 34.2% 85.1% 50.9 1,611 182 ‐ ‐ 153 1,641
1/31/2006
Latest Fiscal Year LTM as of 52‐Week High 52‐Week Low Daily Volume (30 Day Average) Current Price 52‐Week High (% Chg) 52‐Week Low (% Chg) % 52‐Week Price Range High/Low Shares Outstanding Market Capitalization Total Debt Preferred Stock Minority Interests Cash & Equivalents Enterprise Value
1.4 M
The Pantry, Inc. The Pantry, Inc. operates convenience stores in the southeastern United States. The Company's stores offer a variety of merchandise and gasoline, as well as ancillary services designed to appeal to the convenience needs of the customers. The Pantry's stores are located in FL, NC, SC, KY, IN, TN, VA, and GA.
Share Price & Volume Share Price $
Volume
30
($M M , Except per Share Dat a)
1.2 M
25
1.0 M
20
.8 M
15
.6 M
10
.4 M
5
.2 M
Valuation Analytics 09/2009 12/24/09 25.97 12.00 191,477 12.57 ‐51.6% 4.7% 4.1% 22.7 285 1,238 ‐ ‐ 180 1,343
5/5/2009 3/29/2010 4/1/2010
Relative Stock Price Performance YTD Change ($) YTD Change (%) Spider Retail Index YTD Change (%)
9/29/05 4,429 663 515 149 213 58 58 2.64
1
J-09
A-09
S-09
O-09
N-09
D-09
J-10
F-10
M-10
Market Data Dividend Yield Beta Equity Float Short Interest (Short Ratio to Daily Trading Volume, # Shares) 1 Yr Total Return YTD Return Adjusted Beta Analysts Recommendations Consensus Ratings (1‐5)
Valuation Enterprise Value / Revenue (1.02) Enterprise Value / EBITDA ‐7.5% Price / Earnings (P/E) 17.4% Summary Income Statement FY Ended 9/28/06 9/27/07 9/25/08 9/24/09 5,962 6,911 8,996 6,390 799 811 858 901 597 693 720 731 202 118 138 170 278 213 246 280 89 27 32 59 89 27 32 59 3.88 1.17 1.43 2.65
Last Fiscal 0.2 4.8 4.7 Prev LTM 12/25/08 8,650 924 728 196 305 67 67 3.01
Cur LTM 12/24/09 6,494 825 762 64 208 (6) (6) (0.25) 12.7% 1.0% 3.2%
13.4% 3.4% 4.7%
11.7% 1.7% 3.1%
9.5% 1.5% 2.7%
14.1% 2.7% 4.4%
10.7% 2.3% 3.5%
1.3%
1.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.9%
0.8%
1,497 214 0.143 4.7%
1,758 281 0.160 3.1%
2,033 225 0.111 1.0%
2,103 263 0.125 ‐4.4%
2,078 314 0.151 ‐3.3%
2,077 2,096 337 241 0.162 0.115 N/A N/A
1,229 449 36.6% 5.3%
1,386 518 37.4% 4.9%
1,576 586 37.2% 2.3%
1,637 595 36.4% ‐1.7%
1,659 587 35.4% 0.0%
1,631 1,686 587 585 34.7% 36.0% N/A N/A
1,400 73
1,493 97
1,644 1,653 1,673 1,648 1,658 146 110 123 99 106 Graphics Annual Same Store Sales / Volume (% Chg)
0.00% 1.37 22.30 0.89 ‐34.3% ‐7.5% 1.25 9 3.2
4.7%
LTM 0.2 6.5 N/M FY+1 09/10 Y 7,482 N/A N/A N/A 235 21 N/A 1.14
FY+1 0.2 5.7 11.0
FY+2 09/11 Y 7,954 N/A N/A N/A 248 24 N/A 1.52
FY+2 0.2 5.4 8.3
FQ+1 03/10 Q2 1,733 N/A N/A N/A 49 2 N/A 0.04
FQ+2 06/10 Q3 1,922 N/A N/A N/A 67 13 N/A 0.57
‐0.1% Quarterly Margins ($) 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 F2007
427 ‐ 1,014 672 ‐ 1,686 2,113
F2008
Fuel Margin
F2009
F2010
Merch Margin
% Change
8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 (2.0) (4.0) (6.0)
244 ‐ 1,238 189 1,671
(8.0) Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
F2007
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
F2009
Q1 F2010
Merch Same Store Sales
Earnings vs Valuation 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00
T12 Diluted EPS
Lease adjusted leverage is calculated as follows: (FY+1 Rent * 8) + LT Debt)) / EBITDAR
PE
Cur Yr Est
Next Yr. Est
9/24/2009
12/24/2009
6/25/2009
3/26/2009
9/25/2008
12/25/2008
6/26/2008
3/27/2008
9/27/2007
12/27/2007
‐ ‐1.2%
6/28/2007
-
3/29/2007
6.5 73.7% 1.7
PE Ratio 35.00
9/28/2006
6.0
EPS
12/28/2006
4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0
B+ STABLE
14.8%
Q3
F2008
Fuel Same Store Gallons
206 ‐ 237 443 2,113
8
J-09
15.0% 3.4% 4.8%
1
Lease Adjusted Leverage Total Debt / Capital Current Ratio Profitability Metrics Return on Capital (LTM) Return on Common Equity (5 Yr, LTM) Notes
M-09
6/29/2006
Net Income (%) Fuel Operations Fuel Volume Fuel Margin ($) Fuel Margin, Net of CC (CPG) Same Store Fuel (%) Merchandise Merchandise Sales Merchandise Margin ($) Merchandise Margin (%) Same Store Merch (%) Other Information Store Count (Co‐Op) Capital Expenditures Balance Sheet Assets Total Current Assets Long‐Term Assets Fixed, Net Other Long Term Investments Total Long‐Term Assets Total Assets Liabilities Short‐Term Liabilities (Excl Debt & Cap Leases) Long‐Term Liabilities Long‐Term Debt (Incl Cap Leases) Other Long‐Term Liabilities Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Paid in Capital Preferred Equity & Minority Retained Earnings Total Shareholders' Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Credit Ratings Long‐Term Rating Long‐Term Outlook Credit Metrics Funded Debt / EBITDA
A-09
3/30/2006
Sales Gross Profit Operating Expense Operating Income EBITDA Net Income Net Income (Cont'd Ops) Diluted EPS (Cont'd Ops) Margins Gross Profit (%) Operating Income (%) EBITDA (%)
.0 M
0
12/29/2005
Latest Fiscal Year LTM as of 52‐Week High 52‐Week Low Daily Volume (30 Day Average) Current Price 52‐Week High (% Chg) 52‐Week Low (% Chg) % 52‐Week Price Range High/Low Shares Outstanding Market Capitalization Total Debt Preferred Stock Minority Interests Cash & Equivalents Enterprise Value
Susser Holdings Corporation Susser Holdings Corporation owns and operates convenience stores and distributes motor fuels. The Company, through its various locations, offers merchandise, foodservice, motor fuel, and other services.
Share Price & Volume 16
Share Price $
Volume
.3 M
14
12/2009 1/3/10 14.86 8.11 38,043 8.57 ‐42.3% 5.7% 6.8% 17.1 147 421 ‐ 1 18 551
4/29/2009 12/18/2009 4/1/2010
Relative Stock Price Performance YTD Change ($) YTD Change (%) Spider Retail Index YTD Change (%)
12/31/05 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
.1 M
2 0
.0 M A-09
M-09
J-09
J-09
A-09
S-09
O-09
N-09
D-09
J-10
F-10
Market Data Dividend Yield Beta Equity Float Short Interest (Short Ratio to Daily Trading Volume, # Shares) 1 Yr Total Return YTD Return Adjusted Beta Analysts Recommendations Consensus Ratings (1‐5) Last Fiscal 0.2 6.2 71.4
Valuation Enterprise Value / Revenue (0.02) Enterprise Value / EBITDA ‐0.2% 17.4% Price / Earnings (P/E) Summary Income Statement FY Ended 12/31/06 12/30/07 12/28/08 1/3/10 2,265 2,718 4,241 3,307 221 263 437 427 200 237 372 385 21 26 66 42 44 56 107 89 (4) 16 16 2 (4) 16 16 2 (0.35) 0.97 0.97 0.12
Prev LTM 12/28/08 4,241 437 372 66 107 16 16 0.97
Cur LTM 1/3/10 3,307 427 385 42 89 2 2 0.12
N/A N/A N/A
9.8% 0.9% 1.9%
9.7% 1.0% 2.1%
10.3% 1.6% 2.5%
12.9% 1.3% 2.7%
10.3% 1.6% 2.5%
N/A
‐0.2%
0.6%
0.4%
0.1%
0.4%
N/A N/A N/A N/A
846 80 0.094 4.8%
922 93 0.101 6.3%
1,164 151 0.130 2.6%
1,214 125 0.103 2.4%
1,164 1,214 151 125 0.130 0.103 N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A
365 119 32.6% 6.1%
444 145 32.5% 7.7%
730 251 34.3% 6.6%
784 261 33.3% 3.3%
730 784 251 261 34.3% 33.3% N/A N/A
N/A N/A
325 70
504 512 525 512 525 90 69 75 69 75 Graphics Annual Same Store Sales / Volume (% Chg)
M-10
6.1%
LTM 0.2 6.2 71.4 FY+1 12/10 Y 3,843 N/A N/A N/A 99 8 N/A 0.41
FY+1 0.1 5.6 21.0
FY+2 12/11 Y 4,029 N/A N/A N/A 116 15 N/A 0.90
0.00% 1.18 7.50 0.23 ‐37.5% ‐0.2% 1.12 10 3.6 FY+2 0.1 4.8 9.5
FQ+1 FQ+2 03/10 Q1 06/10 Q2 908 954 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 18 27 (3) 3 N/A N/A (0.19) 0.20
12.9% 1.3% 2.7% 0.1% Quarterly Margins ($) 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Fiscal 2006
172 ‐ 409 292 ‐ 701 873
14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 (2.0) (4.0) (6.0) (8.0)
163 ‐ 421 78 663
Fiscal 2007
Fiscal 2008
Fuel Margin
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Fiscal 2006
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Fiscal 2007
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Fiscal 2008
Average Gallons /Store Retail
Q2
Q3
Q4
Fiscal 2009
Merch Same Store Sales
Earnings vs Valuation 1.20
EPS
PE Ratio
50.0
0.80
40.0
0.60
30.0
0.40
4.7
20.0
0.20
5.8 66.7% 1.0
10.0 -
T12 Diluted EPS
Lease adjusted leverage is calculated as follows: (FY+1 Rent * 8) + LT Debt)) / EBITDAR
9
PE
Next Yr. Est
Cur Yr Est
1/3/2010
9/27/2009
6/28/2009
3/29/2009
12/28/2008
9/28/2008
-
0.3% 1.0%
70.0 60.0
1.00
‐ ‐
1.3%
Fiscal 2009
Merch Margin
% Change
Q1
184 1 26 210 873
1
Lease Adjusted Leverage Total Debt / Capital Current Ratio Profitability Metrics Return on Capital (LTM) Return on Common Equity (5 Yr, LTM) Notes
.1 M
4
6/29/2008
Net Income (%) Fuel Operations (Incl Wholesale) Fuel Volume Fuel Margin ($) Fuel Margin (CPG) Average Retail Fuel Volume per Store (% Chg) Merchandise Merchandise Sales Merchandise Margin ($) Merchandise Margin (%) Same Store Merch (%) Other Information Store Count (Co‐Op) Capital Expenditures Balance Sheet Assets Total Current Assets Long‐Term Assets Fixed, Net Other Long Term Investments Total Long‐Term Assets Total Assets Liabilities Short‐Term Liabilities (Excl Debt & Cap Leases) Long‐Term Liabilities Long‐Term Debt (Incl Cap Leases) Other Long‐Term Liabilities Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Paid in Capital Preferred Equity & Minority Retained Earnings Total Shareholders' Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Credit Ratings Long‐Term Rating Long‐Term Outlook Credit Metrics Funded Debt / EBITDA
.2 M
6
3/30/2008
Sales Gross Profit Operating Expense Operating Income EBITDA Net Income Net Income (Cont'd Ops) Diluted EPS (Cont'd Ops) Margins Gross Profit (%) Operating Income (%) EBITDA (%)
8
12/30/2007
Latest Fiscal Year LTM as of 52‐Week High 52‐Week Low Daily Volume Current Price 52‐Week High (% Chg) 52‐Week Low (% Chg) % 52‐Week Price Range High/Low Shares Outstanding Market Capitalization Total Debt Preferred Stock Minority Interests Cash & Equivalents Enterprise Value
.2 M
10
Valuation Analytics
1
.3 M
12
($M M , Except per Share Dat a)
Comparative Graphics: Convenience Retailing 52 Week Relative Performance
ptry US Equity
casy US equity
suss us equity
atd/b cn equity
3/22/2010
3/8/2010
2/22/2010
2/8/2010
1/25/2010
1/11/2010
12/28/2009
12/14/2009
11/30/2009
11/16/2009
11/2/2009
10/19/2009
10/5/2009
9/21/2009
9/7/2009
8/24/2009
8/10/2009
7/27/2009
7/13/2009
6/29/2009
6/15/2009
6/1/2009
5/18/2009
5/4/2009
4/20/2009
4/6/2009
1.70 1.50 1.30 1.10 0.90 0.70 0.50
SP 500
Indexed t o 4/ 6/ 09
EV / Corp EBITDA Ratio
Price / Earnings Ratio
8.00
80.00
7.00
60.00
6.00
40.00
5.00
20.00
4.00 3.00
‐
2.00
(20.00)
1.00
Trailing 12 Months
Est.Current Fiscal Year
Est. Next Fiscal Year
(40.00)
‐ Trailing 12 Months ATD
Est.Current Fiscal Year CASY
PTRY
Est. Next Fiscal Year
(60.00) ATD
SUSS
LTM Operating Margin (%)
CASY
PTRY
SUSS
Return on Avg Common Equity
5.0%
20%
4.5% 4.0%
15%
3.5% 3.0%
10%
2.5% 2.0%
5%
1.5% 1.0%
0% ATD
0.5% 0.0%
CASY
PTRY
SUSS
‐5% ATD
CASY
PTRY
SUSS
LTM ROE
5 year Average ROE
10
C‐Store M&A Valuation & Transactions C‐Store M&A Valuation Metrics Fee Owned Real Estate Low High 1
Store‐Level EBITDA Multiple 2
Corporate EBITDA Multiple
Low
Leasehold High
4.0x
6.0x
2.0x
3.0x
5.0x
7.0x
2.5x
3.5x
1
The above capital market multiples were derived by Trefethen Advisors, LLC based on an analysis of private transactions, involving the sale of petroleum retailing/convenience store companies and/or specific assets, from interviews with active buyers and sellers, and from analysis of publicly available information relating to the industry. All transactions were analyzed using a consistent methodology. The multiples above reflect a composite of transactions, interviews and other publicly available information, and do not reflect the multiple for any individual transaction. The above multiples do not reflect transactions involving individual assets, which may be significantly higher (or lower) for certain types. 2
Trefethen Advisors, LLC has not independently verified any of the information supplied to it by third parties or otherwise made available through publicly available information. Accordingly, Trefethen Advisors, LLC does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of such information or the effect thereof in deriving the overall capital market multiples listed above.
Announced C‐Store M&A Transactions Date Jan‐09 Feb‐09 Mar‐09 Apr‐09 Jun‐09 Aug‐09 Sep‐09 Sep‐09 Oct‐09 Nov‐09 Nov‐09 Nov‐09 Dec‐09 Dec‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐10 Jan‐10
Target
Stores
BP Products North America, Inc. 57 13 Exploitation Quali‐T, Inc. 37 Cody's Convenience Stores 43 ExxonMobil 55 Jack In The Box, Inc. 30 Crescent Oil Co. Appalachain Oil Company, Inc. 47 36 ExxonMobil ‐ Pilot Travel Centers Getty Petroleum Marketing, Inc. 164 PICS Marketing/Riggerunner Prop 9 3 Green Lantern Stores 58 New England Pantry Shell Oil 66 Uni‐Marts, Inc. 204 Alimentation Couche‐Tard, Inc. 8 Thorntons, Inc. 4
Location IL Canada MO National West Coast Midwest KY, TN, VA D.C./MD National North East MO KS MA WA NY, OH, PA NC CT
Purchase Price Not Disclosed Atlas Oil Co. Alimentation Couche‐Tard, Inc. Not Disclosed Not Disclosed Kum & Go Alimentation Couche‐Tard, Inc. Not Disclosed Not Disclosed Various Florida Sunshine Investments Not Disclosed Florida Sunshine Investments Not Disclosed Not Disclosed White Oak Petroleum, LLC Not Disclosed Flying J $195.5MM LUKOIL North America, LLC Not Disclosed Casey's General Stores, Inc. Casey's General Stores, Inc. Not Disclosed 7‐Eleven, Inc. Not Disclosed PacWest Energy, LLC Not Disclosed Various Not Disclosed Accel Mareting, Inc. Not Disclosed Cumberland Farms, Inc. Not Disclosed Acquirer
Comments ‐ ‐ ‐ On‐The Run Franchise System; 43 stores Quick Stuff ‐ APPCO ‐ ‐ branded gas stations; 339 supply contracts ‐ ‐ ‐ JV between Shell and Jacksons Food Stores 144 assets to Kwik Pik, LLC ‐ ‐
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Earnings Announcements (Continued from Page 1) Casey’s General Stores, Inc. (CASY) reported on March 8, 2010 the results for its third quarter of fiscal 2010 ending January 31, 2010. Earnings were up slightly with a positive impact from fuel margins and a higher prepared food margin. Highlights include: Income Net income for the quarter was $17.2 million, or $0.34 per diluted share, compared to net income of $14.0 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, for the third quarter of fiscal 2009. EBITDA EBITDA for the third quarter of fiscal 2010 was $48.7 million, versus $42.2 for the third quarter last year. Merchandise Revenues for the third quarter increased 5.3% overall. On a same store basis, grocery and other sales were up 1.7%, and prepared food & fountain sales were up 1.4%. The merchandise and other gross margin was 32.7%, compared to 32.9% a year ago. Prepared food & fountain gross margin was 62.8%. Total merchandise gross profit was $138 million, up 5.9% from a year ago. Fuel Retail fuel gallons sold in the third quarter were up .75% overall, but down 2.9% on a comparable store basis. Retail fuel margin for the first quarter was $0.124 cents per gallon, versus $0.099 cents per gallon for the same period last year. Susser Holdings Corporation (SUSS) reported on February 26, 2010 the results for the fourth quarter and the full year ended January 3, 2010. Susser reported lower earnings for the year, and a loss for the quarter due to cigarette tax increases, increased sales of lower margin items, and compressed fuel margins due to higher fuel costs. Income The Company reported a net loss of $5.7 million, or $0.33 per diluted share, versus net income of $6.3 million, or $0.37 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of last year. EBITDA EBITDA for the fourth quarter totaled $14.0 million, compared with $29.5 million a year ago. Merchandise Merchandise revenues for the fourth quarter increased 9.5% overall, but declined 1.2% on a comparable store basis from the corresponding period last year. The merchandise gross margin was 32.7%, compared with 34.6% a year ago. Total merchandise gross profit for the quarter was $65.9, up 3.6% from a year ago. Fuel Retail fuel gallons sold in the fourth quarter increased 4.2% overall, but average gallons sold declined 5.9% from the same period last year. Total retail fuel gross profit for the quarter was $22.2 million, down 30.0% from the previous year. Retail fuel margin before credit card for the first quarter was $0.119 cents per gallon, versus $0.177 cents per gallon for the same period last year. The Pantry Inc. (PTRY) reported on February 2, 2010 the results for its first fiscal quarter of fiscal 2010 ending December 24, 2009. The company’s results for the quarter were dramatically worse than the same period last year as a result of lower fuel margins and, to a lesser extent, merchandise gross profit as a result of cigarette tax increases. Highlights include: Income Net loss for the quarter was $26.1 million, or $1.17 per share, compared to net income of $38.5 million, or $1.73 per diluted share, for the first quarter of fiscal 2009. EBITDA EBITDA for the first quarter of fiscal 2010 was $40.3 million, versus $112.2 million for the first quarter last year. Adjusted EBITDA, which includes the lease payments under lease finance obligations as a deduction to EBITDA, was $28.4 million, versus $100.5 million for the first quarter last year. Merchandise Merchandise revenues for the first quarter increased 7.0% overall, and 5.2% on a comparable store basis from the corresponding period last year. The merchandise gross margin was 32.6%, compared with 35.5% a year ago. Total merchandise gross profit for the quarter was $136.3, down 2.0% from a year ago. Fuel Retail fuel gallons sold in the first quarter increased 3.7% overall, and 0.8% on a comparable store basis. Total fuel gross profit for the quarter was $57.3 million, down 56.0% from the previous year. Retail fuel margin for the first quarter was $0.11 cents per gallon, versus $0.26 cents per gallon for the same period last year. The Pantry, Inc. reports fuel gross profit per gallon inclusive of credit card processing fees, and cost of repairs and maintenance on fuel equipment. Other Non‐cash impairment charge $.90 per share, primarily attributable to a reduction in the carrying value of the Petro Express® trade name and certain land parcels, was incurred. 12
Other M&A News Alimentation Couche‐Tard Inc. announced on April 9, 2010 that it had submitted a proposal to the Board of Directors of Casey’s General Stores, Inc. to acquire all of the outstanding shares of common stock of Casey’s for $36.00 per share. The offer represents a 14% premium over Casey’s closing price of $31.59 per share on April 8, 2010. On a fully diluted basis, the offer implies a total enterprise value of $1.9 billion, including net debt of approximately $29 million. Shortly after Couche‐Tard issued its press release, Casey’s announced that its Board of Directors had received and reviewed Couche‐Tard’s unsolicited offer, and unanimously rejected the proposal as it was not in the best interests of the corporation. Gulf Oil, L.P., a wholly owned subsidiary of Cumberland Farms, Inc., on January 13 announced its intentions to execute a significant geographic brand expansion. The “Gulf” brand, one of the petroleum industry’s most venerable, has been in existence for almost 110 years. However, for the last 20 years, Gulf branded gasoline in the continental U.S. has only been available in an eleven‐state region in the Northeast through a licensing agreement between Gulf Oil L.P.’s parent company and Chevron U.S. A. Inc. Effective January 12, 2010, Gulf Oil L.P. acquired all rights, title and interest to the “Gulf” brand in the U.S. Gulf Oil now controls the right to market the brand throughout the United States and its territories. This acquisition enables Gulf Oil to expand its use of the Gulf brand throughout the U.S for the first time since it first acquired certain right to the brand in 1986. Alimentation Couche‐Tard Inc., on January 12, 2010 announced that it had signed an agreement, through its subsidiary Circle K Stores Inc., to acquire eight stores in central North Carolina from Accel Marketing LLC, which operates under the Accel banner. The transaction is anticipated to close in April 2010. Uni‐Marts, Inc., announced on January 8, 2010 the final closings on the sale of its 204 convenience stores. As reported in CSP Daily News in October, Kwik Pik LLC, an affiliate of Lehigh Gas Corp., purchased 144 of the stores, and the remaining 60 sites were divided among 25 other purchasers. Thorntons Inc., an operator of 161 convenience stores across five states in the Midwest and Southern U.S., sold its four Connecticut convenience store locations to Framingham, Massachusetts‐based Cumberland Farms. Thorntons sold these locations to focus on its core operations in the Midwest and South, regions in which it continues to build and expand. As a result of this sale, Thorntons now only operates stores in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and Tennessee.
13
Featured Article: What a Difference a Year may Make C‐Store operators, interested in selling any businesses assets in the near‐term, should consider the financial impact of the expected increases at the end of this year in both the federal ordinary income (“Ordinary Income”) tax rate and the federal long‐term capital gains (“LTCG”) tax rate. These tax rate changes would materially impact the sale of individual assets, such as sale lease‐back transactions, individual stores and entire businesses. By way of background, in 2001, then‐President George W. Bush signed into law legislation that temporarily decreased the highest Ordinary Income tax rate to 35.0% from 39.6%. In 2003, he signed The Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act (“JGTRRA”) which, among other things, reduced the LTCG tax rate to 15.0% from 20.0% for most taxpayers. Originally set to expire after five years at the end of 2008, the tax breaks granted under JGTRRA were extended for an additional two years in 2006 under the Tax Increase Prevention and Reconciliation Act (“TIPRA”), which was enacted by then‐President George W. Bush. If Congress doesn’t pass new legislation further extending the current Ordinary Income tax rate and LTCG tax rate, for many taxpayers they will automatically increase by 13.1% and 33.3 % (i.e., revert back to 39.6% and 20.0%, respectively) at the end of this year. Given the need to raise revenue in order to bring down the U.S. budget deficit, which at $1.4 trillion currently stands at its highest level relative to the economy since WWII, Congress is not only contemplating allowing these tax breaks to sunset, but also discussing increasing the LTCG tax rate to a level above the previous one of 20.0%. To illustrate the potential financial impact of selling prior to an increase in both the current Ordinary Income and LTCG tax rates, as opposed to afterwards at the “old” rates of 35.0% and 20.0%, respectively, we’ve prepared the following simplified example using a fictitious C‐Store operator called Shop & Gas (“SAG”). Assume the 100% shareholder of SAG (“Seller” or “Owner”) is exploring an asset sale of the company, which has no indebtedness and, over the last twelve months, has revenue of $200.0 million and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) at the corporate level of $10.0 million. SAG’s adjusted basis in the assets, after accumulated depreciation of $7.5 million, is $22.5 million. At a purchase price equal to 6.0x forward corporate EBITDA, Seller would receive pre‐tax proceeds of $60.0 million. Owner would realize a gain of $37.5 million which, under the current federal tax rates, would be taxed $7.2 million (e.g., $7.5 million of depreciation recapture at the current Ordinary Income tax rate of 35.0%, which would equal $2.6 million; and the remaining gain of $30.0 million at the present LTCG tax rate of 15.0%, which would equal $4.5 million), resulting in net proceeds before any state taxes of $52.9 million. However, should Owner decide to wait and sell SAG’s assets until after the expiration of the current tax breaks, Seller would pay an additional $1.8 million in taxes, due to the 13.1% increase in the Ordinary Income tax rate to 39.6%, and the 33.3% increase in the LTCG tax rate to 20.0%. The tax bite would be larger if one, or both, of the tax rates increased even further, which is possible given the revenue issues presently facing the federal government. As the average sell‐side transaction takes approximately three to six months from start to finish to successfully complete, we encourage all C‐ Store operators, who may have an interest in selling their businesses in the near‐term, to consider the potential impact of these changes. Trefethen Advisors, LLC can assist owners in evaluating various sale strategies, and understanding the potential impact of these impending changes to the federal tax rates. The information contained herein is general in nature and based on authorities that are subject to change. Nothing contained in this communication is intended to constitute tax advice. Applicability to specific situations can only be determined through consultation with your financial adviser.
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Trefethen Advisors
market update
C o n v e n i e n c e S t o r e ⎟ R e t a i l P e t r o l e u m M a r k e t N e w s About Trefethen Advisors, LLC Trefethen Advisors, LLC is a privately‐owned investment and merchant banking firm focused on providing strategy‐led advice and capital to the multi‐unit retail industry. Since its inception in 2002, the firm has completed more than 45 transactions with a combined value in excess of $4.0 billion. Trefethen Advisors has delivered a range of services on a national basis to leading operating companies, financial institutions and investors in the multi‐unit retail industry, including: identifying and negotiating value‐enhancing acquisitions; executing exclusive sales and divestitures; arranging debt and equity financings for acquisitions, growth capital and recapitalizations; negotiating complex financial restructurings; advising and executing on various asset optimization strategies; and investing as a principal where Trefethen Advisors’ industry expertise, transaction experience and capital can be a catalyst for value creation. Trefethen Advisors, LLC 6710 East Camelback Road, Suite 200 Scottsdale, Arizona 85251 Tel: (480) 922‐9966 Fax: (480) 922‐1666 www.trefethenadvisors.com Trefethen Advisors, LLC Disclaimer The information contained herein is not a complete analysis of every material fact respecting any company, industry or security. Although opinions and estimates expressed herein reflect the current judgment of Trefethen Advisors, LLC and are given in good faith, neither Trefethen Advisors, LLC, its associates nor any person involved in the preparation of this publication is under any obligation to update these opinions or estimates if any of them become aware of change or inaccuracy in the information upon which such opinions and estimates are based. The information upon which such opinions and estimates are based is not necessarily updated on a regular basis. In addition, opinions and estimates are subject to change without notice. This Report contains forward‐looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from the results described in the forward‐ looking statements. This material is for your information only and is not a solicitation, or an offer, to buy or sell securities mentioned. Neither Trefethen Advisors, LLC, its associates nor any person involved in the preparation of this publication accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for the accuracy or completeness of this publication and none of them makes any representation or warranty in relation thereto. Trefethen Advisors, LLC, each of its associates and every person involved in the preparation of this publication expressly disclaim all liability for any loss or damage of whatsoever kind (whether foreseeable or not) which may arise from any person acting on any statements contained in this publication notwithstanding any negligence, default or lack of care. This publication has been prepared without consideration of the particular investment objectives, financial situation and needs of recipients. In all cases recipients should conduct their own investigation and analysis of the information contained in this publication. No recipient should act on the basis of any matter contained in this publication without considering and, if necessary, taking appropriate legal, financial and other professional advice upon the recipient’s own particular circumstances. 15