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communities, what is clear is that ‘[c]limate change will affect the basic elements of life for people around the world – access to water, food production, health and the environment’.7 Climate change that leads to an increasing scarcity of resources also has the potential to trigger knock-on effects. These may include increased inequality; insecurity and lawlessness; the potential for violent conflict; and large-scale population displacement.8 The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has highlighted the linkages between climate change and migration, acknowledging climate change as one of the ‘biggest driver[s]’ of future displacement.9 It is estimated that, by 2050, 200 million people, mainly from the South, will be forced to leave their homes because of climate change.10 These estimates remain debated, and many cite such figures as overly pessimistic,11 particularly as they rely on climatic projections and tend not to include the adaptive capacity of communities in their calculations. It is also important to note that migration is a multicausal phenomenon of push and pull factors that do not all originate with climate change.12 The combination of the economic, social and ecological influences on migratory patterns is likely to be profoundly shaped by the changing climate, however. When considering the socio-economic processes surrounding the flight of climate refugees, it is noteworthy that many of the countries that are vulnerable to climate migration are also those that are challenged with corruption. The main climate migration hot spots are found in Africa and Asia, in particular sub-Saharan Africa, and South and East Asia.13 These are also areas of the world that tend to have low scores on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index – indicating that they are perceived as having high levels of corruption, and that they are likely to face various governance challenges.14 Moreover, with the increased pressure of climate change and the consequent inequality and insecurity that this can bring, there is a greater potential for corruption to flourish. A recent report on climate change and conflict, for instance, highlights how, in times of scarcity, resources could be expropriated by the elite at the expense of marginalized communities.15 Climate migration: a new governance challenge?
The governance of climate migration at a global level is weak, as there are no strong institutional mechanisms in place at present to deal effectively with climate refugees.16 Furthermore, different types of governance measures may be required depending on whether climate refugees are displaced within their country of origin or across international borders, and on whether they move as a result of slow-onset climate change or are forced to move because of natural disasters.17 Moreover, as no strong
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