SCENARIO REPORT NEwTRAIlS / AMSTERDAM 2017
TABL OF CONTE
1 2 3 4 5 6
Uncertainty drivers Introduction, Scenario 1 Conclusion Scenario 2, Conclusion Source List Assessment Form
LE
ENTS
UNCERTAINTY DRIVERS Moving towards a virtual world
Scenario 1 Top Trump; Escaping to a Virtual world
Welcome back President Trump
Gone forever Mr Trump
Scenario 2 Restoring order; Back to reality
Back to reality
INTRODUCTION SCENARIO 1 In the following scenario report a possible version of the world in 2035 will be conveyed. This will be told in the form of someone living within Europe commenting on the changes that have taken place in the last 15 years, and be structured to go through each DESTEP area. The report has been constructed using, but not exclusive to, such sources as newspapers, government statistics and scientific journals in order for the brand ‘NewTrails’ to get an idea of how they would survive and the changes that would need to be made. The two uncertainty drivers chosen of ‘Will we move into a more virtual world?’ and ‘Will Donald Trump be re-elected as president?’ create four very different worlds. In each one a major variable of society is shifted which will cause many changes. The first Scenario report focuses on answering yes to both drivers, with virtuality being completely incorporated into day to day life and Donald Trump being re-elected as the president of the United states. In the second scenario report a world where the Democrats regain control and we are less welcoming to a virtual society is explored and this makes some fundamental changes compared to the first. These drivers are important to ‘NewTrails’ as they are a brand very involved with how Embracing technology can open new avenues of innovation and furthermore the situation in the USA while have a direction impact on Europe where they are based.
SCENARIO 1 TOP TRUMP; ESCAPING TO A VIRTUAL WORLD
I remember when I used my first virtual reality headset, it was a huge clumpy thing and I never thought it was going to catch on as much as it did. Now there are just under a billion wearable devices globally, its crazy to think how fast things move (White paper: Cisco VNI Forecast and Methodology, 2015-2020). Everything these days seems to be virtual or controlled by some machine. Walking down the street everything has been programmed to interact with our ‘IntraEye technology’, advertisements are jumping out at me, and each person can be analysed by the statistics floating about their head (Matsuda, Keiichi. Hyper-Reality. Vimeo). It is definitely getting more and more difficult to differentiate between what’s is real and what is virtual! I’ve heard of a lot of people getting lost in the virtual world and not being able to adjust out with it; they are calling it the ‘virtual sickness’ (Caddy, Becca. “Vomit Reality: Why VR Makes Some Of Us Feel Sick And How To Make It Stop”. Wareable). I think the main attraction of the virtual world is how much freedom we have to create who we really are; for example each person can use the latest virtual textiles available to display their personality in their garments (Weimans, Marga. Wearable Augmented Reality”. Augment nl). This extends even further with the nano technologies inside, allowing garments to have an extensive amount of functions from automatically keeping the user at the correct temperature (Hodson, Hal. “Smart Clothes Adapt So You Are Always The Right Temperature”. New Scientist) or patch itself up if ripped open (“New Coating To Make Fabric Self-Healing Inspired By Squids, Materia)! To purchase these goods is also something which has progressed rapidly over the last few years with each company needing to provide an omnichannel experience (Benson-Armer, Richarde. “The Consumer Sector In 2030: Trends And Questions To Consider”. McKinsey & Company). This has allowed customers to sample or try on the products from the comfort of their own home using their ‘intra-eyes’ and then buy it through several different channels; whether it is directly off of social media or virtually using changing rooms in the virtual store(Riccio, John. “Virtual Dressing Rooms Will Become Reality Sooner Than You Imagined”. Digital Pulse). It is more important than ever to meet these expectations as with all these different channels it has given even more opportunity for customers to voice options (Bahrololoumi, Zahra. Digital Disruption. Accenture, 2016). The manufacturing side of things has seen similar changes with 3D printers being a staple of every home allowing consumers to print their purchases directly (Consumers In 2030. Forecasts And Projections For Life In 2030.. Which?). This has led to more options being made available in a shorter time with the likes of a fashion collection being digitally designed, uploaded and printed by the consumer in a matter of weeks; it’s a whole new beast compared to what was once seen as fast fashion (Roberts, Lauretta. The Vision 2030. WGSN, 2017). This ease of downloading products has led to a whole new illegal market present with many replica copies being made available online for customers to download via the dark web (Tal, David. “How Future Tech Will Disrupt Retail In 2030. Future Of Retail P4”. Quantumrun). As for Industry, it has been completely turned on it’s head since the ‘third industrial revolution’ took place replacing humans from all repetitive manual jobs (ESPAS. Global Trends To 2030: Can The EU Meet The Challenges Ahead?).
For example the taxi driver no longer exists nowadays since Uber introduced it’s self driving taxis (Tovey, Alan. ”The End Of The Cabbie? Uber Tests Driverless Taxis”. The Telegraph); it’s strange how over a matter of years whole professions which were a major part of many cities can just be replaced so easily (“The Future Of Jobs: The Onrushing Wave”. Economist). This can however have many positives, as it has meant that people are now being pushing towards far more creative jobs,(ESPAS. Global Trends To 2030: Can The EU Meet The Challenges Ahead?) which may come with a lot more tough competition, but at least gone are the days where you would have a job you disliked for life! This has created a society full of a lot more motivated empowered people trying to make things happen for themselves. Also I’m not sure exactly how we would have coped if it wasn’t for the help of robots as our median age of the population here in Europe is growing (Creighton, Helen. Europe’s Ageing Demography. 1st ed. ILCUK) making us far slower to react to changes! It’s also nice at times to be more virtual as it gives an escape from everyday life, and we really do need an escape at times. After Trump was given a shock re-election (Ed Kilgore. ”Trump Far From Doomed In 2020”. New York Mag) the USA just seemed to crumble even more; although almost all this was down to the lack of competition as the Democrat continued to lose more and more voters each year with them being seen as out of touch with the average American (Al-Gharbi, Musa. ”Trump Will Likely Win Re-Election In 2020”. The Huffington Post). This has however left the USA completely isolated from the rest of the world, and China has moved into the number one position for the worlds biggest economy (Geff, Colvin. ”China Will Have A Larger Economy Than The U.S. By 2030”. Fortune) with India a very close second. The powers have definitely changed with the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South African) being the main players (Kupchan, Charles. ”The World In 2050: When The 5 Largest Economies Are The Brics And Us”. The Atlantic). Many of these countries who were once only producers are now becoming consumers due to a rise in the purchasing power of the expanding middle classes therefore it is making the costs of everyday goods such as tea to rise significantly (Farrell, Diana. Tracking The Growth Of India’s Middle Class. 1st ed. The Entrepreneurship Cell, 2016). As for here in Europe there has been some significant changes in the European Union. After the UK left in 2019 many countries who were possibly on the edge of deciding whether to leave or stay had their decision made for them when they seen the negative consequences felt by the UK (Aney, Aditya. “Brexit Could Be The Best Thing That Happened To The European Union”. World Economic Forum.). This was due to Theresa May not achieving her bold free trade agreement resulting in a lack of trade within the EU and therefore each household losing almost £2000 per year; meaning households having lower disposable income hurting local retailers (Dhingra, Swati. The Consequences Of Brexit For UK Trade And Living Standards. 1st ed. London School of Economics). There are however far bigger environmental issues going on which makes our political problems seem slightly trivial. The planets survival is majorly being called into question.
It’s very difficult to make any real progress though as it seems like it is ‘USA vs the rest of the world’ on all issues concerning the environment. After walking away from the Paris agreement in 2020 (Withnall, Adam. “With Donald Trump In The White House, Who Is Left To Save The World?”.The Independent), President Trump continued to make his opinions felt on the myth of Climate by stopping all American contributions to UN climate programmes (The Takeaway. “America First, Environment Last? Examining The EPA In The Trump Era”) and completely slashing the Environmental protection agencies budget (Greshko, Michael. “A Running List Of How Trump Is Changing The Environment”. National Geographic). Who really knows what will happen in the future!
CONCLUSION After creating a plausible scenario for the world 2035 and analysing many different factors it can be concluded that the brand ‘Newtrails’ will be able to exist and thrive. Newtrails will fit to the virtual inclined world and take advantage of the technological advancements, constantly pushing boundaries and rethinking how we look at clothing. They will have to make sure that they are not only present on social media uploading new exciting content to keep customers interested, but furthermore have dedicated departments replying to feedback across all channels. This would mean giving the customer the ability to be in constant contact with them while providing personalized shopping experiences from selection to delivery and making sure they are keeping things updated fast enough to keep up to speed with the consumer. A virtual store will also have to be developed and the same amount of attention to detail will have to be implemented into this as a physical one as many consumers will be taking the virtual route for shopping. As the emphasis will be on fast production they will have to make sure that their products are fully digitalised so that the consumer can easily print at home; but make sure that they do only by utilising the most up to date environmentally friendly production methods. Moving forward ‘sustainability’ would have to become a central value of the brand. To combat the risk of fraudulent copies being made they will have to make sure intellectual property covers each product, and also that if they chose to give out licensing rights they do so in a cautious manner. There will also be opportunities within the BRICS countries as they will have a far larger disposable income than currently, so research will have be done to see if it would be viable to target these markets. ‘Newtrails’ will also have to be cautious of the many different creative start ups trying to also capitalise on the same ‘technology forward’ thinking so will have to really work alongside their tribe and not be afraid to constantly change; being nimble in their actions or else they will get left behind.
SCENARIO 2 RESTORING ORDER; BACK TO REALITY
In this scenario report another world is created using the two previous drivers. Within this world it focuses on answering no to both drivers which means the Democrats are back in power in the United States government and our society has been less receptive to a virtual world. -Virtual/Wearable products are still very dominant in society but they are being used far less recreationally and have never fully became mainstream. -The Third industrial revolution still takes places with many people being replaced by robots in manual repetitive jobs. -Again this leads to a small yet more creative job market. -The Democrats gain control in the USA at the 2020 election and begin reversing many of Trumps changes. -Also begin to repair relations with other countries. -The USA remain as the number 1 economy in the world and the core of the global financial system. -This slows the growing middle classes in the BRICS; which can be seen as a possitive as it keeps the costs of everyday goods down (such as tea) leaving other countries to have more of a disposable income. -The UK still leave the EU. -Brands are still required to give an omnichannel experience although having a physical store is far more important as consumers are far more inclined to still seeing the product in real life rather than a virtual copy. -3D Printing still takes over as the main method of production, with 3D printers still become a staple of each household. -Environmental issues are being tackled more due to all countries coming together; including the USA who have reinstated their environmental protection budget and rejoined the rest of the world to fighting climate change. -This allows more problems to be solved it creates a strong ecologically committed world. If this world was to come to fruition then it can be concluded that the ‘Newtrails’ would again be able to survive. Many of the same conclusions from Scenario 1 can be drawn but with a few specific changes which include: • With a less virtual society it would make it more difficult for any products harnessing the technology the norm so would have to harness what other technological advancements existed. • As the USA are back thriving it would open up far more markets there which would compensate for the smaller Chinese/Indian ones. • Now that environmental issues are a completely unified global interest the ‘Newtrails’ would again have to focus on this; but it wouldn’t have to be urgently a central value, more aligning with the status quo.
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