UK Pump Market Prospects 2016-2020 On the import side, Germany accounted for 28% of the total in 2015. Other large suppliers are the USA, Italy and France. In 2015 imports in total fell by 11.2%, with above average falls for imports from USA, Japan, Hungary, Denmark, Norway and Switzerland.
UK Pump Market Prospects 2016-2020 By Vivian Woodward of European Industrial Forecasting Ltd
UK Pump Imports 2003, 2014, 2015 – Top countries * $million, current prices
Historical Market Size and Growth – Long-Run Trends Market size averages around $1.5 billion per year (around £975 million at 2010 exchange rates), with parts and repair accounting for almost 39% of the total. Overall market growth is relatively slow and dependent on replacement demand because the installed base is large in relation to the need for expanded plant capacity. Replacement demand is therefore much more important than suggested by parts and repair, and may account for as much as 75% of the market. Although overall market growth is slow, there can be shifts in the structure of demand because of changes in the relative growth rates of different end uses. For example, public sector construction resulted in a huge growth of demand since 1997 owing to the election of a Labour government, but has now been cut back. The rapid build-up of chemical plant capacity in the Middle East and Asia has adversely affected investment in the UK chemical industry. Also, the rapid development of shale gas/oil in the USA has resulted in a major gain in the competitiveness of USA chemicals relative to the UK and the rest of Europe.
The Importance of Exports and Imports Exports probably account for around 60% of sales, although measurement problems prevent a clear comparison of exports with the level of total sales. The pattern of exports by destination 2003-15 (see table) shows some marked changes. Exports grew by 7.7% per year 2003-14, compared with 7.3% per year for imports. Exports fell by 4.2% in 2015, whereas imports fell by 11.2%.
World USA Germany France China Russian Federation Saudi Arabia Italy United Arab Emirates Netherlands Ireland Norway Spain Belgium India Singapore Rep. of Korea Australia Denmark
%growth 2015/2014
%growth 2014/2003 (annual)
2306
2406
412 185 136 106 41 63 65 75 88 50 55 46 49 37 112 97 28 27
376 218 160 137 55 61 70 75 107 54 75 46 60 37 44 76 39 34
1236
-4.2
7.7
189 129 156 40 12 19 48 26 43 38 27 50 23 24 13 7 13 24
9.6 -15.3 -15.3 -22.9 -25.1 3.1 -7.9 -0.4 -17.5 -8.0 -27.2 -0.7 -18.2 0.8 153.9 27.9 -28.7 -20.3
7.9 6.0 0.3 14.7 18.4 13.8 4.3 12.5 10.7 4.0 12.0 -0.9 11.2 4.9 14.5 30.3 13.0 3.9
%growth 2015/2014
%growth 2014/2003 (annual)
World
2101
2366
1251
-11.2
7.3
Germany USA France Italy Japan Hungary Denmark China Spain Sweden Netherlands Belgium Czech Rep. India Brazil Turkey Norway Switzerland Poland
602 213 161 194 54 45 34 109 35 22 50 39 94 36 12 21 14 9 41
637 346 173 215 91 85 60 111 50 29 49 43 113 39 15 18 23 13 38
357 202 118 82 72 11 53 10 95 15 37 20 6 9 12 8 10 15 8
-5.5 -38.6 -6.9 -10.0 -40.2 -46.9 -42.7 -1.9 -31.0 -25.5 2.0 -8.6 -16.6 -8.5 -17.3 18.9 -39.6 -34.6 8.4
6.6 6.2 4.3 11.3 2.6 25.5 1.4 30.7 -6.9 7.6 3.2 8.9 38.6 17.7 2.5 9.4 9.7 -1.6 18.9
While recovery from the 2008/9 recession occurred up to 2012, there has been stagnation in the world economy since then. Part of the explanation is the slowdown in China, but markets in Japan, Europe and Latin America have also been weak. Until recently prospects in the UK and USA were better than average. However, growth is now faltering in the USA, following strong dollar appreciation, and there is also a slowdown in the UK. UK Pump Market
UK Pump Exports 2003, 2014, 2015 – Top countries * 2003 $million
2003 $million
Future Prospects
Total market, including prime movers, excluding parts $million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
$million, current prices
2014 $million
2014 $million
* Customs and Excise basis, including pump parts
On the export side, the leading markets are USA, Germany, France and China. The fastest growth rates 2014/2003 were recorded for South Korea, Russia and China; but in 2015 there were large falls in exports to Russia and China. However, exports to the largest market, the USA, grew by 9.6%.
2015 $million
2015 $million
Source: EIF estimates Exchange rate in 2010: $1.545 per £ sterling
A collapse of the Euro has been averted, at least in the shortterm, thanks to the quantitative easing by the European Central Bank. However, it remains to be seen whether the
* Customs and Excise basis, including pump parts
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