Challenges and Opportunities of an Ageing Population Editors: Tim Balin, Haley Rice Writers: Tim Balin, Shipra Bihani, Rebecca Du, Joseph Kannarkat, Haley Rice, Swasti Saraogi, Alison West
INTRODUCTION Two demographic trends are clear: both the world and the UK have an increasingly ageing population in relation to younger demographics, and gains in life expectancy have not translated into longer healthy years for current older populations. One of the more important implications of this dynamic is that there is a dwindling working-age population available to ‘pay taxes, work, and provide care for those who need it’.1 As such, ‘growing old in a society which is itself growing old is fundamentally different to growing old in a population where most people are young’.2 In the UK, this combination of demographic trends is placing a clear strain on government pension, social care, and healthcare systems; these issues (and possible solutions) will be reviewed individually over Parts I, II, and III of this paper. The following introductory sections explore these two demographic trends in more detail, and finish with a review of some of the challenges inherent in creating policy to respond to these demographic trends.
Population Ageing and Dependency Ratios Global demographic analyses show that population ageing around the world has accelerated dramatically.3 Projections show this trend is set to continue, as the population of people aged 60 and above is growing faster in comparison with younger age groups.4 The UK, however, has experienced marked slowdowns in improvements in life expectancy at birth and at age 65 since 2011 for both females and males; this is larger than similar slowdowns observed across Europe, North America, and Australia.5 Possible reasons for this trend could include post-2008 austerity measures taken by the government on health, social care and associated public spending.6 In 2017, Europe’s population aged 60 and above was estimated at 25%, with the worldwide rate closer to 13%. However, with worldwide increases of 3% per year other regions will soon match
Government Office for Science, ‘Future of an Ageing Population’ (2016) <https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/816458/future-ofan-ageing-population.pdf>. 2 ibid. 3 World Health Organization, ‘Ageing and Health’ (2018) <https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ageingand-health>. 4 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division), ‘World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision’ (2017) <https://www.un.org/development/desa/publications/world-population-prospects-the-2017revision.html>. 5 ONS, ‘Changing Trends in Mortality: An International Comparison - Office for National Statistics’ (2018). 6 ‘Stalling Life Expectancy in the UK’ (The King’s Fund, September 2018). 1
The Wilberforce Society Cambridge, UK
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July 2019