PAGE 4 MONDAY, AUGUST 8, 2016
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Business as usual post-Brexit How is Britain after the momentous vote to leave the European Union? Six weeks on, Peter Young detects a mood of calm and optimism MORE than a month since Britain’s referendum on its membership of the European Union (EU), what has happened following the decision by a small majority to leave the bloc? Termed one of the most momentous votes in the nation’s political history, it created unpleasant divisions domestically, with the Remain camp describing so-called Leavers as stupid, racist and xenophobic and the younger generation feeling let down by their elders who, by and large, voted to leave. However, now that the dust has settled, people want to know whether the scaremongering by the Remainers about a commercial meltdown and severe economic downturn was justified and how serious has been the fallout from the post-Brexit resignation of a sitting Prime Minister and the speedy election of a successor. In short, how has Britain fared following two such monumental upheavals? The answer is that so far the nation seems to have weathered the storm; though, of course, the long-term political and economic consequences remain unclear. Apart from the instant volatility affecting sterling and the financial markets, the warnings of economic disaster have not materialised and both the pound and the markets have since stabilised, with the London FTSE 100 now at its highest level for more than a year. Employment rates are at a record high and a lower pound is boosting exports. Fur-
thermore, new post-Brexit ceived public support overall major investment has been on the grounds that another announced by, among oth- EU vote would be a demoers, the pharmaceutical con- cratic travesty. glomerate GlaxoSmithKline Mrs May has already asand the US bank Wells Far- serted her authority through go which, reportedly, plans a ruthless cull of ministerial to establish a new European colleagues (not dissimilar to headquarters in London. Tory Prime Minister HarThe newly-appointed old Macmillan’s infamous Chancellor of the Exchequer ‘night of the long knives’ in has stressed that the funda- the 1960s). In addition, as mentals of the British econ- evidence of her commitment omy are strong. Nonetheless, to ‘Brexit’, she has appointed he has spoken cautiously several ‘leave-backing’ minabout economic uncertainty isters: not only Boris Johnresulting in businesses post- son as Foreign Secretary poning decisions and con- but also Liam Fox and Dasumers reining in their pur- vid Davis in newly-created chases, and that this, together departments - respectively, with the possible effects international trade and ‘for of other unknowns during exiting the EU’, the latter beBritain’s negotiations to quit ing responsible for the negothe EU, could last for up to tiations under Article 50 of two years. A higher growth the Lisbon Treaty which prorate for the secvides the legal ond quarter has ‘British people basis for putting been recorded tend to maintain into effect Britwhile even the ain’s withdrawal a sense of Internationfrom the EU. al Monetary restraint, Another Fund, which in self-control Leaver, Pritti Paadvance of the tel, has been put referendum is- and desire in charge of insued dire warn- for security ternational aid. ings about a and order in NotwithUK recession, is standing the ponow predicting everyday life. So, litical shake-up, growth of 1.7 per in the aftermath life in Britain cent this year. to have of the drama of seems However, the stayed on a relaBank of Eng- the past month tively even keel land has now and with relative since the June lowered its UK equanimity, the 23 vote and growth forecasts there is already and has just country appears a growing feelchanged interest thus far to have ing that, having rates for the first to leave acquiesced in, if opted time since 2009, the EU, the cutting them not universally nation should from 0.5 to 0.25 supported, the move on and enper cent. sure that it deOn the politi- need for change.’ parts on the best cal front, despite possible terms it protests and a huge anti- can negotiate. At the same Brexit demonstration in Lon- time, it should seek to maxdon, the new Prime Minister, imise the benefits of interactTheresa May, has rejected ing with the rest of the world calls for another referendum. freed from its EU shackles. She has said that “Brexit While, even in normal means Brexit” and that she times, public opinion emis determined to make a suc- braces contrarians who cess of the negotiations to are all too ready to chalwithdraw while work to pre- lenge the status quo - and pare for those negotiations is despite, in the modern age, already well under way. This the emphasis on rights and firm stance seems to have re- self-expression rather than
obligations - British people tend to maintain a sense of restraint, self-control and desire for security and order in everyday life. So, in the aftermath of the drama of the past month, violent behaviour has been comparatively rare apart from a short-term spike in race hate crimes and, with relative equanimity, the country appears thus far to have acquiesced in, if not universally supported, the need for change. It has been heartening that observers far from the action have expressed their vicarious admiration for the seamless transfer of power in Britain to a new Prime Minister and her fresh ministerial team in a prevailing atmosphere of calm, decorum and good order. Having lost the referendum, it is surely commendable that David Cameron should have stood down of his own volition as a matter of principle; namely that, being convinced that it would be in Britain’s interest to remain in the EU and having lobbied hard for this, he could not in good conscience preside over negotiations to leave. Having led the Conservative Party since 2005 and having been Prime Minster for the last six years, it must have been a gut-wrenching decision, but someone of such enormous experience and ability will surely have an important role to play in the nation’s affairs in one form or another in the future. Reflecting on the referendum, some commentators now suggest that the Leave vote might have been even greater if more emphasis had been placed on the sovereignty issue and on the nature of the Single Market. The Remain camp’s persuasive arguments about the important need to retain full access to the latter did not perhaps take fully into account the public’s widespread frustration and irritation with the excessive and growing intrusion into British life by unelected and unaccountable bureaucrats
THE BANK of England’s governor Mark Carney a series of stimulus measures last week as it tries to jumpstart an economy shocked by the Brexit vote. in Brussels through an endless stream of directives and regulations in a bid to impose on all its member states a regime to harmonise and control trading standards throughout the EU. The Single Market was designed to help free trade and free movement of labour and capital, but critics contend that overpowering centralised control stifles business, increases manufacturing and production costs and, by its nature as a customs union, it is protectionist. Its creation also represented a major step towards political union. What is more, the supremacy of EU laws and directives - enforced by the European Court of Justice which was given sweeping new powers by the Lisbon Treaty in other areas as well as commercial disputes - was a major issue which in the lead-up to the referendum took a back seat to the purely economic arguments. But, as it turned out, a majority of voters became convinced that the UK should not participate in moves toward closer political integration and needed to take back its parliamentary democracy from an undemocratic and failing EU. None of this means, however, that Britain will suddenly become an insular and isolationist country. On the contrary, ministers in the new government have emphasised that ‘Brexit’ does not indicate a break from Europe as such because Britain is linked to its European partners geographically, commercially, culturally and in so many other ways and it will remain a key player in inter-governmental cooperation including co-ordination of defence, foreign and counter-terrorism policy
as well as in other major areas like the environment. However, they say, the time has come for the nation to be more outward-looking and open-minded as well as more engaged and active on the world stage without the constraints of EU membership. Mr Johnson has acknowledged that the UK’s key immediate aim will be to do a deal with the EU, in the interests of both sides, combining the benefits of free trade with curtailing immigration. This will mean striking a balance between access to the Single Market and its rules requiring free movement of labour. That said, under World Trade Organization rules the UK has the right of access to this market subject to paying tariffs which would presumably be offset to some extent by the ending of its huge net financial contribution as an EU member. There is a palpable mood of optimism as the UK seeks to seize the opportunity of becoming a global nation again with various new trade deals already in the offing. In his new role as the minister responsible for Britain’s exit, Mr Davis has warned of the complexity of the negotiations to leave. How these are handled will ultimately determine the public’s reaction to ‘Brexit’ in the longer term. But the performance of the domestic economy in the coming months will also shape attitudes. Mrs May and her new government are faced with a daunting task which will test them to the full. It remains to be seen how all this will turn out, but the portents so far are good. • Peter Young is a retired British diplomat living in Nassau. From 1996 to 2000 he was British High Commissioner to The Bahamas.
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