2 minute read
Are We Doomed?
from The Stag Issue 5
by TheStag.
ENVIRONMENT Climate Change - Are We Doomed?
We are heading for an apocalypse. A nightmare. A hellish landscape of death. There will be no water, no food and little life on the planet.
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Except that isn’t the case. But it’s all too easy to get that impression from how activists and media outlets alike talk about the potential impacts of climate change. Misinformation helps nobody, but we equally cannot afford to minimise the threat. We are not doomed, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t act.
Most of the impacts of climate change revolve around how much the average global temperature has increased. The Paris Agreement in 2015 was signed to try and keep that temperature rise below 2°C. It’s currently been raised by 1°C. The ICCP suggests 2-3°C of warming by 2100 is a likely scenario.
So, picture the scene: The efforts of the Paris Agreement have failed and the world has warmed by around 2°C - what happens?
90% of coral reefs are extinct. The amount of Insects and plants going extinct has also increased significantly. There’s been a significant increase in the amount of hot spells. There’s the potential for mass migration from areas that have been more heavily affected by climate change, and a relatively small rise in sea levels. Malaria may have spread to the United Kingdom.
It’s worth noting that here in the UK we are relatively well-protected. We’re not at risk of hurricanes or any significant flooding - the same cannot be said for everywhere in the world. Low-lying regions in Bangladesh or Thailand are at significantly greater risk than us. resentative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs. These are forecasts for the future climate depending on how much we limit emissions. There are four pathways. RCP 2.6 is the most optimistic, with 1°C of warming by 2100 - we’ve more or less already blown past that. RCP 4.5 and 6.0 suggest 2 -2.5°C of warming, which is roughly in line with expectations. But there’s a final pathway - RCP 8.5. This pathway forecasts the climate if we take little to no action against climate change, and it suggests 4°C of warming.
I stumbled across this model several years ago and it has always stuck with me. It takes perhaps the worst possible scenario for our planet - but it’s not impossible. This model doesn’t exactly fill you with hope, but it makes it clear that even in the worst possible scenario - humanity finds a way.
Are we doomed? No. We’re not going to go extinct. We will, undoubtedly, survive. Even in the worst case scenario, it’s not a total apocalypse. But we shouldn’t settle for simply survival. We are at a turning point for our planet - we need to make sure we’re going in the right direction.
