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the big picture The Weather Channel’s Summer Outlook: June-August
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he Weather Channel Companies have released their summer temperature outlook for 2013. For a large majority of the lower 48 states, above-average temperatures are expected this summer.
Temperatures are expected to be the farthest above average from Texas westward through the central and southern Rockies to the West Coast from northern and central California to Oregon. One pocket of the country, the Great Lakes region, is expected to see temperatures coolerthan-average this summer. This would include Chicago, Detroit and Buffalo, N.Y. According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford, “The summers of 2010-12 were the hottest three consecutive summers in the U.S. since at least 1895. The heat was due, in part, to a combination of (1) warmer-than-normal North Atlantic temperatures, (2) a lack of El Nino conditions and (3) expanding drought conditions. Heading into the upcoming summer, an examination of these factors reveals a lesser degree of consensus regarding heat relative to the past three years. “In particular, while a significant El Nino event is not expected, recent and expected warming in the tropical Pacific may occasionally support a pattern that favors cooler-than-normal temperatures in parts of the eastern U.S. Further, we expect the most significant spring rains to impact areas from the Plains eastward, while the western U.S. will continue to dry out. This evolution is more suggestive of a west-based drought this summer which would favor very warm summer temperatures there, and potentially cooler-than-normal temperatures downstream in parts of the eastern U.S. Finally, there have been persistent trends in recent climate model forecasts towards a cooler summer across parts of the eastern U.S.
The latest Drought Monitor released at press time shows a large swath of “exceptional” drought areas in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Southeastern Colorado and Western Kansas. As you can see from the graph, most of the entire Western half of the U.S. is under some level of drought conditions.
“Our final analysis suggests that this summer will not be as hot as the previous three, but will still be characterized by widespread areas of above-normal temperatures, especially across the southern and western US. The best chance for below-normal temperatures this summer will be across the Great Lakes region.” That’s the overall summer forecast. Below we look at the monthly details:
JUNE JULY - The Weather Channel
Cooler-than-average temperatures will stretch across parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Upper Mississippi Valley. Once again, well above-average temperatures will be focused on the western states and expand to include the adjacent High Plains and much of Texas.
A large chunk of the West will continue to see above-average temperatures. Meanwhile, below-average temperatures are expected in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Unfortunately, the drought outlook from May through August indicates that drought conditions in the Western half of the country will persist or intensify, though some improvement may be seen roughly up and down the middle of the United States.
In this graphic, areas shaded tan or “B” indicates below normal precipitation for June through August. The small area of green in the Deep South is forecasted for above normal precipitation during those three months. The rest of the country is labeled “EC,” which means equal chances for above, below or normal precipitation.
This sister graph for temperature shows the same areas of the plains that are forecasted to experience persistent or intensified drought conditions will also see above normal temperature for June, July and August (Area labeled “A”).
June/July 2013 • theshowcircuit.com
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