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THE NATION, SATURDAY, JUNE 18, 2011 “Mindful of the lessons of the past, we will open a new chapter,” Tambuwal said. Six years ago, what happened on June 6, was unimaginable. It would have been political sacrilege for any lawmaker on the PDP platform to moot an idea of going against the decision of the PDP as then constituted. It loomed larger than life, and the opposition was miserably fractured and weak and few. And knowing full well that there was no enough power in terms of the numbers of the opposition to swim against the tide without dire consequences, members of the party literally ‘bowed and trembled’ at the sight of the godfathers who dotted the country’s landscape from east to west, north to south. Then, it would simply have been a case of fait accompli. And it was a very common sight to hear party members chanting throatily with all signs of helplessness “my leader sir, I remain loyal!” But if the opposition made the victory dance of June 6, in the Green Chamber of the National Assembly sweet, and if it passed for the dawn of a new era for the opposition, pundits and analysts are eager to know if this is going to be a thing that has come to stay or a flash in the pan.
Days of diminishing opposition At the inception of the current democratic effort in 1998, only three parties were in existence. These were the PDP, the then All Peoples Party (APP) and the Alliance for Democracy (AD). Opposition was formidable. The general elections of April 1999 produced the PDP as the ruling party but clearly lacked the larger than life status it later assumed. ANPP was the lead opposition party then, controlling nine states of the nation’s 36 states. The party was a household name in the extreme north of the country primarily due to its mass appeal. It boasted of formidable politicians like Chief Arthur Nzeribe, Joseph Wayas, Chief Don Etiebet, Chief Alani Bankole, father of former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon.Dimeji Bankole, Ebenezer Babatope, Chief John Nwodo, Chief (Mrs.) Florence ItaGiwa, the godfather of Kwara State politics, Dr Abubakar Olusola Saraki, the late Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu, Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi, among others. They gave the PDP a run for its name and fame. In the 2003 election, it scored a big victory in Kano State, where it defeated the ruling party then, the PDP, to take control of one of the country’s most populous states. But today, the story is so graphically different. Most of the strong members of the party had left for the PDP and other political parties, and it was therefore not a surprise that the party is controlling only three states out of the nine it controlled in 1999. It has now fallen into the second position, losing the flagship position as an opposition party to the ACN. The party’s fortunes started dwindling after the 2003 general elections, when the party lost in Kwara and Kogi states. These were tradional strongholds of the ANPP. Then after the 2007 presidential election, the Chief Edwin UmeEzeoke-led executive went into a Government of National Unity (GNU) with the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s administration. The presidential candidate then, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, did not find it amusing. Thereafter, the party was hit with a Tsunami-like ‘gubernatorial exodus’ in quick succession. Isa Yuguda and Ibrahim Shinkafi of Bauchi and Zamfara states respectively dumped ANPP
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The simple implication is that the ruling party can no longer ride roughshod over anybody or hold anyone to unnecessary ransom. Robust debate on all issues, examination of all the pros and cons and taking decisions in the best interest of all Nigerians rather than what the ruling party wants will now be the new order
•Umeh
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the spread and popularity of the party at the moment and it has served notice that it was ready to lead the opposition in the country, going by the stance of its leadership.
Weighing the odds
•Iwuanyanwu
for the PDP. It was a blow the party never recovered from. As a final nail to its leadership of the opposition role, Buhari and his supporters bolted to form the CPC last year in readiness for the April 2011 elections. And after the presidential primaries, Chief Harry Akande, one of its founding fathers, financier and presidential aspirant, also left the party to join the PDP. Now the party controls only three states.
The new face of opposition The ACN was just about a step behind the ANPP after the 1999 election as an opposition party. Then known as the Alliance for Democracy (AD), it held sway in the South West with five states, many senators and numerous House of Representatives members. But during the 2003 general election, it was buffeted with a whirlwind of electoral heist, losing four of the five states with the exception of Lagos State. The same thing happened in the
2007 election, but as a popular advertorial by Lagos State Governor, Babatunde Fashola would proclaim, “one by one, (and) by God,”all those states are today back to the fold except Ondo State. But what it lost in Ondo, it has gained in Edo State. After the 2011 election, it was obvious that the party has rediscovered itself not only in the Southwest but across the country. It became the most sought-after platform for politicians, especially those who were badly treated in their parties. It , therefore, made strong showing in states like Benue, Akwa Ibom and Kwara. When on June 6, the 7th Senate was inaugurated, the ACN had in its role call 18 senators including two former governors, Senator George Akume of Benue North West and Senator Chris Ngige of Anambra Central. In the House, it has 64 members, including two from Adamawa State, one from Akwa Ibom, three from Benue State, one from Plateau State, six from Edo, among others. The foregoing is an indication of
This new development is not lost on the ruling party. On Wednesday June 1, President Goodluck Jonathan called on political parties to join hands with his government to transform Nigeria when he met with leaders of ACN, ANPP, APGA and Labour Party (LP), at the Banquet Hall of the Presidential Villa Abuja. The CPC was not represented as it turned down the invitation. The president, apparently sensing the strength of the opposition just now, chose the path of conciliation. Hear him: “No matter who is the President, no matter who is the governor, what Nigerians are interested in is to have food on the table, there should be infrastructure, there should be security and there should be good governance. I know that not only the ruling party alone can make this possible. “I want to plead with you that I will not want to run a government of opposition party or main party, I want us to collectively run a Nigerian government, a government that will put the interest of the country at heart and work towards solving our problems; the problems that are dear to our people”, he added. ACN national leader and former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, who attended, however, made it clear that their participation at the meeting does not in any way water down their power as opposition parties, stressing that “opposition is not all about axes, cutlasses and Dane guns”. For emphasis, he added: “We did not come here to eliminate opposition and I am speaking for my own party and not for any other party”. This
should be enough message to those who fear that what happened on June 6, may after all, be a flash in the pan. Speaking to The Nation on the issue of a virile opposition, Festus Okoye, a legal practitioner and National Coordinator, Independent Election Monitoring Group, opined that “a virile opposition is essential in a democracy. Without a virile opposition, the government in power hears only its own voice and the voice of cronies, opportunists and choristers who lead every government astray. However, for effective opposition, there must be effective and dynamic political parties based on issues and ideologically driven. Such a party must be backed by strong structures, strong leadership and disciplined followers”. But he was quick to express reservation about the quality of opposition in the country. “In Nigeria, there is too much opportunism and the party is only a platform and vehicle to be boarded to a particular destination. You disembark the moment you get to that destination. So, some of those grandstanding as opposition may defect depending on the issues on the table. That is why they have refused to outlaw cross-carpeting in the political process”, he stated. Legal practitioner and civil rights activist, Bamidele Aturu, expressed the same sentiment. He posited that he sees all the parties as ideologically the same. “I have never believed that the major parties in Nigeria are ideologically different one from another. My hope is that the contradictions will lead to true people’s power”. It would be recalled that two prominent parties, the APGA and the LP, were among the 64 political parties in the country that endorsed President Jonathan as their candidate in the just-concluded presidential election. And many are just wondering if with such decisions at the national level of those parties, it is not very clear yet where they really stand in the comity of opposition parties.
Conclusion But from all indications, a new chapter in the body politics of Nigeria certainly has just unfurled before everybody. Ironically, Tambuwal’s reading may still be a little narrower than the perspective from which many people now see the development. The bigger picture clearly signals the emergence of a virile opposition which can no longer be taken for granted in the making of critical decisions for the whole country. With a House now made up of 150 opposition members, and a ruling party having 202, for all votes that would require a 2/3 majority to succeed, the opposition will continue to play the beautiful bride as the ruling party must shop for at least 38 votes from across the divide. The simple implication is that the ruling party can no longer ride roughshod over anybody or hold anyone to unnecessary ransom. Robust debate on all issues, examination of all the pros and cons and taking decisions in the best interest of all Nigerians rather than what the ruling party wants will now be the new order. Importantly, in the unlikely event of a repeat of the scenario of the Hon. Ghali Na’abba days of impeachment proceedings against the president, it would be far too easy for it to succeed now than ever. This realisation is sure to keep the government of the day on its toes and further advance Nigeria’s democratic pursuits as all eyes are now focused on the opposition.