Summer 2015 | Issue2
voice of professionals
Within the shipping universe exists the tankers’ system, visually represented in Figure 1. Fig. 1. The Tankers’ planetary system
Each “planet” is a tanker segment (segments defined here by tonnage size ranges1), and its visible side surface proportionally corresponds to its aggregate tonnage size (in deadweight terms). Each planet is positioned in the system according to two coordinates: the “average age of the existing fleet” (y axis) and the “orderbook to existing fleet ratio” (x axis).
Planets in the bottom-right neighborhood of the system are suffering from the “high temperatures” of oversupply: a combination of their young age, which does not favor a reduction in their size by natural demolition causes, and a dynamic growth (high orderbook). The arrows on the axes show the direction to this dangerous area. The contrary happens in the upper-left “cold” neighborhood: over there reside older fleets renewed by a natural scrapping process and having low energy / rate of regeneration (low orderbook/ existing fleet ratios). As of April 2013, in the extremes of our system reside the old and calm smaller planets of Small and Handy product tankers (average age: 13.7 & 11.6 yrs; regeneration rates 7% & 4%; masses: 26 & 19 m.dwt t respectively). Closer to the burning sun of oversupply (bottom right) are the big, young, and high energy (getting red-hot in color) MR (Medium-Range) product tanker, Suezmax and VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) tanker planets (ages: 8.0, 7.8 & 7.8 yrs; regeneration rates: 18%, 13% & 12%; masses: 60, 75 & 191 m.dwt t respectively). These planets are prone to size reduction/destruction e.g. by forced demolition of material, or otherwise lay-up, low utilization etc. The Aframax and Panamax planets are in a moderately cold state (age: 8.5 & 8.0 yrs; regeneration: 7% both; mass: 99 & 32 m.dwt t).
1 Small product: 3,000-24,999 dwt t; Handy product: 25,000-39,999 dwt t; MR product: 40,000-52,999 dwt t; Panamax: 53,00079,999 dwt t; Aframax: 80,000-199,999 dwt t; Suezmax: 120,000-199,999 dwt t; VLCC: 200,000+ dwt t.
ME Mag
The tankers’ system within the shipping universe
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