LOCAL / NATION
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2013
THE ITEM
A3
Shutdown could be to blame for expected jump in jobless rate WASHINGTON (AP) — The jobs report for October due Friday may be bleak. It might even be scary. The unemployment rate could jump by the most in three years. Hiring may slow from an already weak pace. Don’t panic. The ugly figures will reflect the government’s partial shutdown, which coincided with 16 days in October. The trends for the job market will likely reverse themselves in coming months. “It’s going to be a very messy report, and I don’t think we should take it at face value,� said Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital Markets. Economists warn that the unemployment rate could surge as high as 7.5 percent from 7.2 percent in September. That would be the steepest one-month rise since 2010. The number of jobs added in October could slow to roughly 120,000 from the 148,000 added in September. That isn’t healthy. In the first nine months of this year, the average job gain was 180,000. The shutdown will be mostly to blame. But its effect
on the data won’t be easy to tease out. Economists have all but thrown up their hands trying to forecast Friday’s figures or to suggest what they might mean. However the numbers turn out, the distortions mean the monthly jobs data will be less useful in gauging the economy’s health than they normally are. “We have much less confidence in these numbers than usual,� economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note for clients. Why the confusion? Consider how the jobs report is compiled: It’s derived from two separate surveys. Each survey will be affected differently by the shutdown. One is a household survey. Government workers ask adults in a household whether they have a job. Those who don’t but are looking for one are counted as unemployed. That’s how the unemployment rate is calculated. The other is a payroll survey. The government asks mostly large companies and government agencies how many of their employees worked or received pay, typically during the second week
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Luis Mendez, 23, left, and Maurice Mike, 23, wait in line Oct. 23 at a job fair held by the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park in Miami. The jobs report for October, due Friday, could show a jump in the unemployment rate.
of the month. This survey produces the number of jobs gained or lost. Suppose you’re a federal worker who was furloughed by the shutdown. The payroll survey would consider you employed. But the household survey would count you as unemployed. Why the disparity? Because furloughed federal employees received back pay for the time they didn’t work.
So for the purposes of the payroll survey, they were employed. The same is likely true for government contractors who were temporarily laid off. Many were probably paid for at least part of the time covered by the payroll survey. So the payroll survey will consider them employed. That’s why October’s job gain isn’t expected to drop much. The household survey
takes a different approach: It will count both the federal workers and the contractors as unemployed because they weren’t working during the survey period. The shutdown furloughed about 450,000 federal employees in the second week of October. If the number of unemployed rises by that much in October’s jobs report, the unemployment rate could reach 7.5 percent.
POLICE BLOTTER CHARGES:
David A. Acoff, 22, of 1028 Harwood Drive, was arrested Tuesday and charged with second-degree assault and battery and pointing and presenting a firearm. Acoff reportedly pointed a gun at a 20-year-old victim on Oct. 25. Tyrone Jimmy Fleming, 24, of 5 E. College St., was arrested Tuesday and charged with simple possession of marijuana, unlawful carrying of a pistol, possession of a firearm by a convicted felon and financial transaction card theft. At 9:40 p.m., Fleming was reportedly seen by police walking on South Pike West near Carolina Avenue. When approached about a warrant on a stolen debit card, Fleming reportedly ran toward Miller Road, in the process discarding a cellphone, a .45-caliber handgun and a jacket containing a digital scale. When apprehended, Fleming reportedly
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had two bags in his pockets containing a total of 36 grams of marijuana. Brian Patrick Osteen, 32, of 1640 Stamey Livestock Road, was arrested Tuesday and charged with grand larceny and possession of stolen nonferrous metals. Between Sept. 29 and Sept. 30, Osteen and an accomplice reportedly stole two sets of factory and chrome rims, a catalytic convertor and five batteries from the 3200 block of Broad Street. Between Oct. 20 and Oct. 23, Osteen and an accomplice reportedly transported copper coils, tubing and wiring from five industrial airconditioning units belonging to a business in the 900 block of Jefferson Road. Brendan Edward Regan, 18, of 677 Pringle Drive, was arrested
Tuesday and charged with grand larceny and possession of stolen nonferrous metals. Between Sept. 29 and Sept. 30, Regan and an accomplice reportedly stole two sets of factory and chrome rims, a catalytic convertor and five batteries from the 3200 block of Broad Street. Between Oct. 20 and Oct. 23, Regan and an accomplice reportedly transported copper coils, tubing and wiring from five industrial airconditioning units belonging to a business in the 900 block of Jefferson Road. DISCHARGING FIREARM:
A 55-year-old woman reportedly told law enforcement that a black man between of 24 and 32 years old was walking in the fifth block of Frazier Street toward Rainey Lane between 3:52
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p.m. and 3:59 p.m. Friday when he shot a handgun into the air. The suspect then reportedly got into a white van with a ladder on the roof and drove away. Officers found three .40-caliber Smith & Wesson bullets in the roadway. About 3 a.m. Tuesday, a resident in the 2500 block of Lorentz Drive reportedly heard a gunshot outside the home. At 9:41 a.m., the homeowner reportedly found a bullet hole in the garage door and a bullet lodged in the rear bumper of a car inside the garage. Total damage is estimated at $2,500. At 11 p.m. Tuesday, two women were inside a home in the first block of Woodlawn Avenue when they heard five to seven shots and the sound of glass breaking. Police recovered several
shell casings outside the home and noted damage to the kitchen window, several appliances and the interior and exterior walls. The woman told police she got into an argument with another group of women earlier about a dispute regarding boyfriends. No injuries were reported. ASSAULTS:
A 31-year-old man reportedly told law enforcement that a 32-year-old man struck him and his truck with a GMC or a Chevrolet truck about 8:25 p.m. Sunday in the 1000 block of Broad Street. He sustained minor injuries to his right thigh and refused medical treatment. The 32-yearold said the 31-year-old kicked him in the chest. A 51-year-old woman reportedly told law en-
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EMS CALLS:
On Monday, Sumter County Emergency Medical Services responded to 48 calls. Forty were medical calls, four were motorvehicle wrecks, and four were listed as “other trauma.�
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forcement that a 52-year-old man twisted her leg and pushed her to the floor about 9:29 a.m. Friday in the 200 block of Vernon Drive. She sustained two bruises on her right knee.
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